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barbershores 355 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Oct 15, 2005
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  • barbershores barbershores 8 hours ago Flag

    Hi Mr. Lee,

    My take is that this was purely a technical pull back. Not news driven. FRO's share price ran up to resistance at the January 2014 high, and pulled back. To where? To the 12/15/14 high/close support level of the first major leg up.

    Yeah, stocks don't usually just run up steady. They run, pull back, support, accumulate, and bounce.

    My best estimate is that the share price hangs around 3 bucks for awhile until investors/traders get itchy to own it expecting a run into the earnings announcement currently scheduled for February 27th.

    By then, I expect to see the share price at least tangle with 5 bucks again.

    If you are a shortie, and you shorted at 5 and bought back at 3 you are pretty smart.

    If you are a shortie, and you shorted at 5 and are still holding the short position hoping it will drop lower, you are kinda dumm.

    If you are a shortie, and you just recently shorted at 3 expecting it to fall further, maybe much much further, you are even dummer.

    We should see a nice run into the scheduled presentation. I think another test of 5 at least.

    The best time to consider shorting is close to the announcement date. But, next qtr, 1st 2015, will probably be a lot better than 4th qtr 2014. So, it's best to wait and see how the earnings come in, and read the forward looking statements leading into next quarter before committing oneself.

    Shorting here would have a very low likelihood of profitability in my opinion.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Note. Lets see if the word "dumm" makes through the Yahoo filters

    Barbershores

  • We heard it wouldn't happen. I had to believe it would. This article says that it "is" happening big time.

    news.investorsDOTKOM/blogs-capital-hill/012315-736034-survey-finds-small-firms-in-michigan-dropping-coverage-because-of-obamacare.htm

    When the ObamaCare debate was raging five years ago, advocates insisted that the law would have only a minimal impact on employer-provided health plans.
    "A key goal of the bill," explained ObamaCare architect Jonathan Gruber, "was to leave those who are happy with their employer-sponsored insurance alone."
    But a survey by Grand Valley State University in Grand Rapids, Mich., adds further evidence that this promise was completely bogus.
    The survey focused on companies in the southwestern region of the state that have 50 or fewer full-time employees. Companies this size don't face the ObamaCare employer mandate, but were supposed to be helped by the law's ban on medical underwriting and the competitive small business insurance markets it promised to unleash.
    The survey found the opposite. A quarter of firms that that had offered insurance to their employees last year were canceling their health plans this year, and another 25% said they planned to do so next year.
    More telling is the fact that 68% of those dropping coverage this year are directing their employees to the Healthcare.gov website to buy coverage on their own.
    In other words, these companies are shifting their health insurance costs onto taxpayers. That's the very outcome ObamaCare architects like Gruber said wouldn't happen.
    Wait, there's more.
    Nearly half of the firms surveyed say they've limiting or reducing new hires because of the law — presumably to avoid coming up against the employer mandate should they go over 50 workers. And 28% said they are considering cutting back their overall workforce because of the law.
    In his latest State of the Union speech, President Obama, after bragging about the recent economic growth, said he'd make sure "government doesn't h

  • Reply to

    FRO's $50M prepayment to SFL is still not utilized

    by exmbb Jan 23, 2015 1:26 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 23, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    There is another point I would like to make here. Separate from Frontline, the entire sector is enjoying huge cash flows. At least the ones with significant exposure to the spot market. SFL is making a lot of cash, as are other JF companies.

    Any short fall in cash to make the April 14th bond maturity payment, could be payed off by loans/equity loans, made by SFL or others in the sector. JF will have a lot of opportunities and choices to make here.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Feels like something is wrong

    by bluhorseshuluvsnfi Jan 23, 2015 2:37 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 23, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    Nope, the risk of restructuring to meet the obligations of the April 14th bond payment is gone. Fixing numerous tankers at high rates for a year will allow new financing options as the banks will be interested. So, even if they don't generate enough cash by April 14th, they will be in a position to borrow from banks.

    Man, I just don't get some people. This stock was just a buck twenty six weeks ago. It ran up hard in two steps to 5. That's a 315% run in 6 weeks. Yeah, it's taking a breather. If you hadn't noticed, stocks don't just run constantly in one direction up or down. They run, peak/trough, pull back, congest, then move again. After the pull back so far, with the stock closing at $3.15 today, the price is 257% of where it was 6 weeks ago.

    I don't have a percentage calculated to the likelihood of this stock beating 5 bucks by announcement, but it's much more likely to retest 5 than to return down to a buck twenty by then.

    A little trader refresher.

    For long traders, when a stock is in an up trend, load up when it pulls back to support.

    For short traders, when a stock is in an up trend. don't short it. Go find something with more opportunity on the short side than an uptrending stock.

    What's boss?

    With FRO, it's spot rates. That's what's boss. And, we actually know what the spot rates are. Total transparency.

    Sheesh.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Looks to me like the down trend from the failed test of 5 bucks may be ending with narrow congestion. Support appears to be about 2.96, and resistance about 3.15.

    Not saying this is a sure thing, but appears to be how this is morphing out. It could break down from here, or break out and re-challenge 5. Or even establish another range.

    We still have 5 weeks until the posted announcement date on the web site, so that seems a little early to run up into it. Still could though.

    With the spot rates in huge cash generating mode, I am leaning more towards thinking that this is just a pull back within an uptrend, instead of that the uptrend is over and we are now in a down trend as the shorties are hoping.

    Another view, FRO shares can do basically one or a combination of only 3 things. Go up -rally-, Go down -breakdown-, stay the same -congest range bound-.

    The 3 to 5 range though big, could be what happens. Or, the price could take out the 5 and run up. I think either one of these two is much more likely than a breakdown with the current sector economic climate. So, the statistically sophisticated money would be on buying this current support range.

    Once we get within say 3 weeks or so of the announcement, if this starts running up into earnings, one would best ignore the rest of the market. So many times I have seen this thing run up all the harder when the broad market is tanking running up into great earnings. Tempering that with how that used to mean a huge divvie would be announced. Still, once this starts running, there is often rotation out of other falling stocks into this one. So, just keep your eyes open for it. It's pretty awesome when it happens.

    Just sharing my 10+ years of observations of this company.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Owners convert capesize bulkers into tanker orders

    by mms_bmf Jan 22, 2015 6:12 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 9:25 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Bmf,

    I don't think the conversion of bulkers into tankers has anything to do with FRO. It must be from one of JF's many other seagoing ventures.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    Of course you are right. It's just that most of the shorties on this board have enough sense to #$%$ when the trend changes from down to up. I make fun of Mr. Rami and feel sorry for him at the same time.

    There are a bazillion stocks which deserve to be shorted, and the short sellers will be rewarded. But, for some reason, once someone has convinced themselves to short a stock, the emotional investment is so great that they cannot close out their short position when the conditions change, because they are incapable of changing their mind.

    So many companies out there are so mysterious in how they are valued. Is it revenues? Is it growth? Is it profits? Is it book value? Is it dominance in their sector? We cannot tell, but, if we go long, and the stock goes up, then surely it is going up for the single characteristic we think it is most valued by.

    Then there is FRO. When the market is wish washy, we can play the same game of determining what determine's it's value. But when it's not, the single truth is this:

    It's the spot rates STUPID/DIPUTS.

    Once the pitbull gets a good hold of the rag, it doesn't matter that it starts to raining. He's going to hold on to it and shred it until there is nothing left, and he doesn't care how wet he gets during the destruction. And in the end, it doesn't matter that the rag is gone and he is soaking wet, because he did it his way. In the end that is all that matters to a pit bull.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

    Note: Special thanks to the Bill Clinton presidential campaign for "It's the economy STUPID/DIPUTS".

  • Reply to

    FRO 2015 earnings ~ $6/PPS

    by james030397 Jan 21, 2015 2:26 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    I think it is probably too early for SDRL. It is just floating up a bit. I am not impressed with the action.

    It is way over sold but probably isn't going to do much until oil rebounds.

    Just my thoughts.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    FRO 2015 earnings ~ $6/PPS

    by james030397 Jan 21, 2015 2:26 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Rogers,

    I like the concept of buying during basing, and selling at resistance. That $5 of overhead resistance is from the January 2014 peak. Most longs get overly enamored with their stock, fall in love with it, romantically dream of it running up and up and up. And it may. But, more than likely it will fail a test of 5 bucks a few times first.

    I like your thinking of selling at 5. You might have a chance of doing that a few times before it ever gives up, or breaks through that resistance.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Rami,

    "the big pop to 5" was 2 weeks ago. But, of course you were short so you missed it.

    Better luck next time.

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Come on

    by islandboy379 Jan 22, 2015 1:10 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Island boy.

    Shorting at 5 and buying back at 3 was actually a good trade. Counter to the current uptrend, but a good trade nonetheless.

    Unfortunately, the shorts on this board are selling at 3, and will probably buy back the next time FRO hits 5 because they can't stand the pain.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    FRO 2015 earnings ~ $6/PPS

    by james030397 Jan 21, 2015 2:26 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    One thing I have found on this board is that people are not swayed by facts. Especially shorties. Anyone that agrees with what I posted, will just use that as justification of their present position. Anyone that disagrees with what I posted will just ignore it as irrelevant since it is inconsistent with their world view.

    In order to change the perception of someone such as Mr. Rami, would require a very long emotional plea, which he would have to mentally transpose into soliloquy.

    Posting facts from the company's latest presentation aint gonna do dat.

    So, you are safe.

  • barbershores barbershores Jan 22, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    I've got FRO pegged at $3.22 at 10am yesterday morning. This is the time the European markets close. On FRO.OL, I see a 1.6% drop from yesterday's close in Europe. That would be $3.14 US, not counting any overnight currency exchange rate changes.

    I find this to be a better estimate of the market open indications than the US premarket.

    A lot of low volume e-screwings occur in the US pre-market that aren't relevant.

    The FRO.OL chart on Yahoo finance looks to be heading down right now, not up. This is the chart trend we should be focused on to help determine US market opening indications.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    FRO 2015 earnings ~ $6/PPS

    by james030397 Jan 21, 2015 2:26 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 21, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    From the company 3rd qtr presentation:

    Frontline
    ■ Fleet, including vessels on commercial management & ITCL:
    – 14 Smax
    – 25 VLCC
    – One Suezmax newbuilding expected delivered in January 2015
    – Remaining installments to be paid approximately $41m
    ------------------------------------
    So, 39 ships managed, plus one new one this month makes 40 going forwards.

    They have to pay out some to SFL and others, plus an extra profit sharing, but still, lots of ships making lots of money. Lots of days left in first qtr.

    That should be a blowout announcement.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jan 21, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Rami,

    Bet you wish you bought at a buck forty. lol

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Secondary offering to be priced at $2.50

    by recruit_systems Jan 21, 2015 3:29 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 21, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    From the company website:

    frontlineDOTBM/IR/bonds.shtml

    Issuer Frontline Ltd.
    Issue amount US$ 225,000,000
    Issue date April 14, 2010
    Maturity April 14, 2015
    Issue price 100%
    Coupon 4.50%
    Coupon payment Quarterly
    Conversion price US$ 36.5567 March 7, 2011
    Stock exchange Not listed
    ISIN code NO 0010571490

  • barbershores barbershores Jan 21, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Blue,

    I don't see any doji stars.

    I see the reversing candle of 1/13. But I don't see any other candle formations that would cause me to think that the uptrend has been resumed.

    I am watching for support/congestion in the 2.87-2.95 area. It could just bounce there, but I think it more likely to grind for awhile. If it breaks down below that range, the uptrend will probably not resume for awhile if it ever does.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Rami36 you doing okay buddy?

    by mms_bmf Jan 20, 2015 8:54 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jan 21, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. BMF,

    Should Mr. Rami throw in the towel, finally buy FRO to cover his shorts at a huge loss, and buy more to go long, it will be a great "SELL" signal. lol

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • finance.yahooDOTKOM/news/traders-hoarding-oil-colossal-ships-152800359.html

    Traders are in a mad dash to rent some of the world's biggest oil tankers so they can store crude while prices remains in record-low territory.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that TI Oceania, which has been booked by oil traders Vitol, is stationed off Singapore and is likely to remain there for most of 2015.

    China's Unipec booked Oceania's sister ship, TI Europe, way back in September, when oil prices dropped below $100 per barrel (let's hope they didn't buy the oil then).

    The ships are giant. Here's the TI Europe, for example:

    As oil prices continue to plunge amid a supply glut and weaker demand, companies reckon they can make more money from simply hoarding the oil and selling it at later date, when prices rebound.

    This phenomenon is known as "contango," a term for when the price of commodity futures is higher than the current price. In this case, traders believe there is more money to be made from simply sitting on oil, if they can bear the costs of storing it.

    Oil prices will stay low if there continues to be space to store it. However, once storage is full, producers will finally be forced to slow output because there will not be anywhere to put the surplus. From that point, the price has a chance to rebound, assuming demand doesn't keep falling.

    According to Goldman Sachs, however, that turnaround probably won't happen as quickly while more firms decide to store rather than sell oil. The investment bank is expecting a slow "u-shaped" recovery, rather than a rapid "v-shaped" bounce in prices:

    Not only has the US expanded storage capacity significantly, but Europe has also shuttered refining capacity that can be used as storage, and the global crude tanker fleet has grown by 100 million dwt since 2008 — while oil at sea has remained stagnant given the dominance of onshore drilling.

  • barbershores barbershores Jan 18, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Delta,

    From your post: "short sellers that will soon have to cover when they realize the bottom is in and FRO is such an undervalued asset."
    -------------------------------------
    Naw. Short sellers will never believe that FRO is an undervalued asset. They will continue to short this thing in cycles because they expect the old downward trend to be re-instated. Short sellers continue to feel hopeful/greedy when the price runs up and short it. Then, if it goes down, and they don't experience the pain of a continued up trend, they buy back at a profit. This action causes each dip to be bought, then on a breakout, a huge buying volume is created as they get the #$%$/parc scared out of them.

    They simply aren't deep enough to follow the spot rates.

    I've been watching FRO short sellers for over a decade now. They don't change.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

DIA
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