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Frontline Ltd. Message Board

barbershores 168 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Oct 15, 2005
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  • Reply to

    ALMSOT CERTAIN BAD NEWS ON THE WAY

    by rami36 Mar 30, 2015 8:02 AM
    barbershores barbershores 6 hours ago Flag

    Hi Mr. Rogers,

    I think a merger of FRO and FRO 2012 over the next 3 years to be of low probalility.

    FRO still has way too much debt even after the April Bonds are paid down.

    The business models of the two are different. There is value in that difference.

    If spot rates stay high I see:

    FRO 2012 to be a holder of newer tankers all on long term lease. It will have consistent low to moderate returns.

    FRO is a holder of older tankers, mostly on spot. It will have highly volatile returns, losses one year huge gains the next.

    From an investment perspective, one is more likely to choose one or the other.

    A melding of the two strategies doesn't really help an investor. If, a given investor wanted a melding of strategies, they can accomplish this by buying both.

    Then, there's SFL. SFL is doing a lot more than just tankers. But an investor has a better ability to combine strategies by combining different focused strategies.

    A lot of times a merger is done to combine overhead, mostly management.

    These two companies are very slim in management costs. It won't have much of an impact in expenses to lay a few guys off.

    I just don't see the advantage to re-combining these two.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    BS

  • Reply to

    ALMSOT CERTAIN BAD NEWS ON THE WAY

    by rami36 Mar 30, 2015 8:02 AM
    barbershores barbershores 22 hours ago Flag

    Oh my God! Did you see that?

    The DOW was down 180 points

    The S and P was down 18 points

    The NASDAQ 100 was down 49 freakin points

    What did FRO do?

    Up 0.45%

    FRO was up when the rest of the market was in major sell off mode.

    Almost certain that there is "GOOD" news on the way.

    Sigh!

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    ALMSOT CERTAIN BAD NEWS ON THE WAY

    by rami36 Mar 30, 2015 8:02 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 31, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Rami,

    The question from your post:

    "So why the selloff today?"
    -----------------------
    All the stock did was aggressively drop down to the 200dsma. It will most likely bounce from here. The stock is trending sideways. It appears to be in a consolidation pattern.

    It could break down. But, so far it is doing nothing significantly different than it has been doing for the last 2 months.

    Sheesh. You get all excited when the share price drops down a bit.

    But when it pops right back up you shut up.

    I take that as a sign that you are both short, and manic depressive.

    When the stock goes your way, down, you get excited and post/gloat.

    When it goes up, you probably lock yourself in your bathroom and sulk.

    Should it bust out the bottom of this, significantly below the 200dsma, please gloat excessively and drive the price down into a real opportunity price zone. Hopefully a few weeks before the next announcement I estimate to be around May 28th.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 29, 2015 12:56 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    just one more point I would like to make on my doctor. When he sold his practice, he went from working 5 days per week down to 3.

    I don't know if this is demand related or not. When I went in last week there were only 2 other people in the waiting room. But, this is the first time I have seen him in 4 or 5 years. It's not like I can tell you the head count in his waiting room month by month over the last several years.

    I know drug sales are up big time.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Obama's Recession coming

    by railsnstocks Mar 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 29, 2015 12:50 AM Flag

    Thank you Mr. Buzz,

    I see now. You have to read their reports carefully. They discuss increases and decreases of "different" weeks.

    The chart apparently shows the data with less confusion. So, in the US, for petroleum and petroleum products, the most recent week is the highest number of tanker loads of the last 5 weeks.

    So, no recent down trend in place that I can see.

    That was an interesting exercise.

    Now I know that my initial perceptions were correct and there is no reduction in petroleum related rail shipments.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    You might want to wait another week after that. Stock could drop pretty strong over the next couple of weeks. After that it is more likely to support as we approach the next earnings announcement.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • This is a little dated, about 12 days old.

    bloombergDOTKOM/news/articles/2015-03-16/oil-storage-deals-seen-eluding-tanker-owners-as-contango-narrows

    Rates for supertankers could be lower than anticipated as the incentive to store oil at sea diminishes, freeing up the vessels to compete for charters, according to RS Platou Markets A/S.

    The industry’s biggest tankers could earn $35,000 a day this year, about $10,000 less than previously estimated, the Oslo-based investment bank said in a report on Monday. The higher figure assumed 1 percent of the global fleet would store crude, a trend that’s yet to materialize, said Frode Moerkedal, an Oslo-based analyst at Platou Markets.

    Crude prices have plunged as the U.S. pumps the most in three decades and OPEC, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, keeps its own production steady to retain market share. That’s helped create what’s known as contango, where commodities for immediate supply are so much cheaper than in future months that it rewards traders to store.

    “You would only store on a vessel if the onshore inventories were full,” Moerkedal said by phone on Monday. “It seems that the pace of onshore buildouts are slower than expected.”

    The global oil market has 377 million barrels of spare onshore storage capacity available, Michael Wittner, the head of oil market research in New York for Societe Generale SA, wrote in an e-mailed report on March 14. That’s an increase of 73 percent from the firm’s February estimate of 218 million spare barrels of capacity available for global land storage. The numbers includes unused storage in China and India and exclude 120 million barrels of pipeline space in U.S.
    Demand Gain

    It costs about $1.10 a barrel to store oil for a month on supertankers, ships known within the industry as very large crude carriers. Brent for June costs about $1 a barrel more than it does in May, according to data on ICE Futures Europe exchange compiled by Bloomberg.

    Brent for May settlemen

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    Though you and I generally are on the same side of the Obamacare issue, I find this one statement of yours inconsistent with what I am seeing/reading: "a lot of doctors are now having financial problems because the ACA"
    -----------------------
    My understanding is that doctors are doing better than they were. For one thing, the medicaid expansion has helped them a lot with getting some cash from the desperately poor.

    Another trend, started some time before Obamacare hit, is that doctors have been leaving private practice in droves. Particularly in the general or family medicine area. Hospitals have been buying up these small private practices, and putting those doctors on payroll.

    From discussions with multiple doctors, I am finding that the main drivers for these trends is the huge cost to private businesses to conform to government regulations and the difficulty in managing liability insurance.

    Large firms can afford to purchase extensive legal/regulatory expertise, and be able to purchase liability, read medical malpractice, insurance in bulk at a much lower distributed cost than small offices.

    My own private doctor sold his practice 3 or 4 years ago now after a long and expensive lawsuit regarding medicare reimbursements. He and his partners carried near $300,000 in legal bills, for a suit which they ultimately won in court. Yes, the government once again overstepped their authority and were tromping on the little guys just trying to do their jobs. This small medical group like so many others saw the writing on the wall that the government is the enemy of business entrepreneurs, and were happy to sell their practice to a local hospital, where they work today as employees.

    He is much happier today. He has much less stress. No management requirements. He doesn't have to worry about the health of his business when he accepts or declines patients based on their ability to pay. He just kicks it upstairs to hospital policy.

    BOL

    BS

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dakine,

    Count on you that when confronted with a well thought out and accurate description of the state of Obamacare which is inconsistent with your ideology, you react with personal attacks. It is right out of the playbook of the entrenched liberal. You are really showing your true colors today dude.

    Of course I am not doing anything against the law. I fully comply with all IRS regulations. For those that do not qualify for an exemption, they will be required to pay a penalty if they do not purchase healthcare insurance.

    For me, I applied for, and received, a letter of exemption from the IRS stating that I am not required to pay a penalty for not having health insurance for the year 2014.

    I am complying with what is "demanded" of me by my government.

    If you want to find someone that is actually breaking the law regarding Obamacare, that would be one Barack Hussein Obama, whom is illegally not enforcing the regulations of the law passed by both houses of congress and passed into law by a sitting president of the United States of America. Instead of enforcing the law as written and intended, he instead picks and chooses those components he wants to force on the American citizens and businesses as it suits the best interests of his political party.

    Just my take.

    Have a nice day.

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    OT BS Pricing Solar Power Fairly

    by barbershores Mar 26, 2015 5:14 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 1:44 AM Flag

    Maybe this will be the solution for Hawaii,

    A community micro grid. If only they can get the cost down well below $0.40/kwh. If this proliferates, then all the solar, all the wind power, all the bio fuel, all the geothermal will go the way of the carbon generating power plants. Bye bye.

    http://phys.org/news/2015-03-solarcity-microgrids-tesla-batteries.html

    The systems, which add generators and software to manage the power to standard solar panels, will include Tesla Motors batteries to store the energy generated. While the owner can tap the solar power for daily use, the main purpose is to maintain electricity in the event of a natural disaster such as an earthquake or hurricane.

    "There has been a dramatic increase in severe weather events the last few years - climate-related, almost certainly - and its led to more grid outages," SolarCity spokesman Jonathan Bass noted, pointing to the storm known as Sandy that hit the Northeast last year as a prominent recent example.

    The company is targeting cities that are in the line of fire for such catastrophic events for the new service.

    "Traditionally, microgrids have been used in campuses, medical facilities and military bases, and we will pursue some of those opportunities if they become available," said Daidipya Patwa, who is leading SolarCity's microgrid efforts, "but our primary target is municipalities, communities and areas with a weak grid or no grid at all."

    That focus opens up a potentially large market, said GTM Research analyst Shayle Kann.

    "Any municipality in a region that is prone to some kind of natural disaster ... they have a few key locations that they need to keep running in the event of an outage or a natural disaster - a community center where they're going to house people or police stations," the analyst said.

    This will also be the first major effort overseas for SolarCity, as the company shops its microgrids to island nations with poor power grids. While Bass said the bulk of its microgr

  • Reply to

    Obama's Recession coming

    by railsnstocks Mar 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    Looking at their chart, it looks to me like they went up for petroleum and petroleum products in the US. Up from about 12,500 to 14,500 last week. I don't see the raw numbers, just the chart. Canada and Mexico look to have gone down a little bit.

    aarDOTORG/Pages/Freight-Rail-Traffic-Data.aspx#weeklyrailtraffic

    Is there another place to get the numbers?

    Thanks,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Oil down over 5 percent FRO dropped

    by rami36 Mar 27, 2015 5:32 PM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 12:19 AM Flag

    TWO DOLLARS?

    Hell/lleH, I'm waiting for a buck twenty five again. lol
    -----------------------------------

    Maintaining the same intraday volatility, it can't stay in the current trend for more than a week. It's going to have to come out sideways, pop up, or break down.

    It looks like the traders on this meatball are supporting it on the 100dsma. I thought this might happen. Could be fickle though. It's so close to the 200dsma. It could easily fall down and support there without doing anything that technically different than it has been doing.

    The 50dsma isn't all that far above at 2.68. I am thinking we have at least a 25% chance of it bouncing up to the 50dsma as a result of the end of the wedgie it's in. If it took a trip up there in the next couple of weeks, I don't think it will do much more. Timing is off relative to the earnings announcement. It could be a good short entry for Mr. Rami right at the 50. It would be wise not to stay too long though. A quick drop back down to the 100 or 200dsmas would be the right exit for a short trade.

    Of course, a significant news item throws this all out the window.

    I am waiting for timing and technical signals to go long into the next earning announcement. I shan't be playing this short.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    When is Debt Payment DUE in April?

    by investor_hound Mar 26, 2015 5:50 PM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 28, 2015 12:00 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dan,

    LoL, that may look like a solution. But, that debt owed SFL by FRO is carried on SFL's books as an "asset".

    So, to do that swap, SFL would have to show that debt as a loss.

    There are situations in which this might make sense. If SFL had a huge gain in a particular year, and it looked like FRO would go belly up the next year and they would take the loss anyway, they might do a swap like that to align a gain with a loss in a given year for tax purposes. This might keep them from having to pay huge taxes one year, then have to carry a loss forwards the next.

    I sense that Frontline is leaving that potential status. At least for the next couple of years anyway.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Obama's Recession coming

    by railsnstocks Mar 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 11:46 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dakine,

    Yeah, rigs shutting down doesn't have any impact on production short term. Rig operations are mostly used to drill new wells. Instead, the oil and gas companies are reducing new drilling operations, and instead are investing money and labor in improving the production of existing wells and transportation of the oil produced in existing wells.

    As these wells age, and production starts to taper off, things will eventually change. But, it could be some months before it has a significant impact on price.

    Should Iran be allowed to ship crude again, it will be that much longer until any drop in US production has much impact on global supply/demand relationships.

    I haven't read anywhere that crude oil shipments by rail car have dropped. I was thinking it was still expanding.

    Do you have a link to an article on this?

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    OT BS Pricing Solar Power Fairly

    by barbershores Mar 26, 2015 5:14 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 11:30 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dakine,

    From your post: "This totals over 33% of costs to HELCO instead of 10%"
    --------------------------------------
    No no, the 10% cost I discussed, was the "fuel" cost as a percent of billing to customers by HELCO. It is not important, whom actually buys the fuel, HELCO or a power supplier. The significance of that number is merely to demonstrate that the entire savings to the Hawaiian grid system from alternative customer based generation is 10% or less of prices billed to customers.

    I am not talking at all about the billing rate of power producers that sell to HELCO.

    I am only speaking about the fuel cost reductions of major producers for each kwh of solar power produced by a customer.

    It's true that when a HELCO customer produces their own solar power, it displaces the power that would have had to have been produced by a supplier. And, there is a reduction in fuel use associated with that reduction in output by a supplier. But, that reduction in cost, is 4 cents or less per kwh displaced by solar when the billing rate is $0.40/kwh by HELCO. There is no net savings anywhere near $0.40 per kwh displaced. It's 4 cents or less. The other $0.36 or more cost, is still there. And that's for coal or oil produced electricity. For geothermal, the savings is effectively zero. Because, there is no reduction in fuel use since there is no fuel used for geothermal generated electrical power.

    Also from your post: " The rest is oil or gas fired."
    ---------------
    My understanding is that there is no natural gas in Hawaii. But, there is some coal based power generation, 14% in 2010. There is SNG and LPG/propane on the islands, but I have not read anywhere about them being used for power generation. Probably cost much more than oil. They are talking about bringing LNG to the islands, but I have not heard of it actually being there yet.

    hawaiigasDOTKOM/clean-energy/

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Obama's Recession coming

    by railsnstocks Mar 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dakine,
    From your post: "Frackers have shut rigs down and cut production"
    ------------------------------------
    From what I have been reading, frackers "have", as you suggested, shut down rigs. However, production is still rising.

    Oil Is Cratering. American Oil Production Isn’t.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2015/02/american_oil_unlike_the_rest_of_the_world_it_isn_t_cratering.html

    Signs of the oil bust abound. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen in half in the past six months. The search for oil, which fueled a gold-rush mentality in North Dakota and Texas, is abating. According to Baker Hughes, there were 1,140 rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. on Feb. 6, down from a peak of 1,609 on Oct. 10, 2014. In Houston, the Wall Street Journal reports, oil companies are shedding jobs and vacating office space.

    And yet a funny thing has happened during the bust. Oil production in America has been rising, as this chart of monthly oil production from the Energy Information Administration shows. In November, the U.S. produced 9.02 million barrels of oil per day, up 14.5 percent from November 2013. The last time the U.S. pumped more than 9 million barrels of oil per day for two straight months was in 1986. This week, in its short-term energy outlook, the Energy Information Administration noted that the boom is continuing. Production in January 2015 rose to 9.2 million barrels per day. And even with WTI crude settling at a forecasted price of about $55 per barrel for the year, production for all of 2015 should come in at 9.3 million barrels per day—up 7.8 percent from 8.63 million barrels per day in 2014.

    U.S. MONTHLY OIL PRODUCTION IN 2014
    Month
    Millions of barrels of oil per day
    January 7.955
    Feburary 8.083
    March 8.224
    April 8.516
    May 8.577
    June 8.637
    July 8.686
    August 8.743
    September 8.902
    October 9.050
    November 9.020
    That’s not what usually happens when the price of a vital commodity goes bust. Typically, producers react to su

  • Reply to

    OT BS Pricing Solar Power Fairly

    by barbershores Mar 26, 2015 5:14 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dakine,

    From your response to Mr. Semper, it appears that you are getting it partially now.

    The part you are missing still, is the "scale" of the cost reduction the power producer gains when they do not need to produce so much because solar users generate their own power, and shift some solar producer's power to their neighbors.

    A reduction in oil fired power probably represents a drop in costs approaching 10% max. So, the saving ratio is just 1/10.

    Hawaii is an odd duck. Odd for 4 major reasons:
    1. They have an overabundance of sunshine
    2. Most of their electricity production is oil based
    3. They have a fair amount of true geothermal
    4. Their electrical costs are the highest in the US
    -----------------------------------------
    Here's another way to look at it that might help you. When solar is being generated in significantly large amounts, what happens to the cost economics when the utility decide to throttle back their "geothermal" power producers, which throttles back to near nothing, but stays on standby for when solar is reduced?

    1. How much fuel is saved? None.
    2. How much savings in operations? None
    3. How much savings in plant cost? None
    4. How much savings in distribution cost? None
    5. How much savings in maintenance cost? None
    6. How much savings in other infrastructure costs? None
    7. How much savings in administrative costs? None

    All those costs associated with operating a geothermal power generating plant are still there. They don't go away.

    So, in this case, the savings ratio is 0/10. Or, zero percent cost savings with reduced usage.

    I expect HELCO is going to throttle back the supply from the highest cost, to them, supplier, consistent with contracts and current regulations.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    OT BS Pricing Solar Power Fairly

    by barbershores Mar 26, 2015 5:14 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dakine,

    When you look at the cost of power that HELCO pays, that price includes the infrastructure of the power supplier broken down into megawatthour bites. Most all of that cost born by the supplier, is in their own infrastructure costs, not their fuel.

    So, for an example, lets say that a particular power producer is charging HELCO $0.20/kwhour.

    And, HELCO users all, 100%, install solar panels, and on sunny days do not need any power, and we find a drop of 50% of the power required to be purchased by HELCO to provide power for their customers.

    What you will find, is the cost HELCO will have to pay for that power will rise from $0.20/kwh, to probably $0.39/kwh.
    -------------------------------------------
    These are the simple practical realities of a system in which the fixed and operating costs are spread over each unit of use in billing.

    These costs, 90% of total billing, do not go away simply because "all" of the power customers spend $25,000 each to install solar panels.

    The reason these costs don't go away, is because the assets are still needed to provide power and distribution when the sun is not shining. So, it must still operate, and the business will still need to be paid to cover costs.

    The only way to shed these costs, is to detach from the grid. If everybody installed solar panels, and had battery backup, and detatched from the grid, then you could shut down the grid. And all the folks that "risked" their capital to provide that infrastructure will lose. Stock share holders, bond holders, banks that loaned, would all lose their investment from that point forwards.

    I don't know, I have explained this multiple times here, but for some reason you seem to think that the costs disappear as the solar panels are installed. The expense is only diverted to others by regulation.

    Additionally, in my example above, since all power users have panels, there is no one to sell your excess power to.

    This is unsustainable.

    BOL

    BS

  • Reply to

    When is Debt Payment DUE in April?

    by investor_hound Mar 26, 2015 5:50 PM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Lets see, SFL would buy tankers worth about 600 million dollars, and take on debt of about 800 million dollars

    So, for each share of FRO held, each share holder would have to pay about a buck sixty two to SFL.

    That is what would be required for SFL to break even on the deal.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    When is Debt Payment DUE in April?

    by investor_hound Mar 26, 2015 5:50 PM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 27, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    "Maturity April 14, 2015 "

    frontlineDOTBM/IR/bonds.shtml

    Convertible Bond

    Issuer Frontline Ltd.
    Issue amount US$ 225,000,000
    Issue date April 14, 2010
    Maturity April 14, 2015
    Issue price 100%
    Coupon 4.50%
    Coupon payment Quarterly
    Conversion price US$ 36.5567 March 7, 2011
    Stock exchange Not listed
    ISIN code NO 0010571490
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    "Conversion price US$ 36.5567" LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

FRO
2.240.00(0.00%)Apr 1 4:03 PMEDT