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Frontline Ltd. Message Board

barbershores 80 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Oct 15, 2005
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  • Reply to

    How worthless is this board?

    by jamlsher99 Jul 24, 2014 8:25 AM
    barbershores barbershores 7 hours ago Flag

    Hi Mr. Isher,

    I will ditto Mr. Deloach's response: ""The board used to be really good ten years ago, but has diminished to the current state."
    FRO used to be really good ten years ago, but has diminished to the current state."
    -----------------------------------------------
    I will add: "The sector was really good ten years ago, but has diminished to the current state."

    From your post: " I wonder how many bonds were held by Hemen Holdings, which is JF's private fund."
    ----------------------
    I have often wondered the same thing. But, I am now thinking that Hemen probably did not buy any of the bonds originally. But, I expect they will buy them later for pennies on the dollar. Then, after the liquidation, they will still own their ships while having shaken off the rest of the share holders.
    ----------------------------------
    The Frontline story is mostly about a company having assets that at one time were in short supply, then later, due to sector overbuild, those same assets glutted the market.

    Frontline was unique in that it paid out huge sums in dividends. It did that for as long as it could. And that is what attracted many to the company over the years. Those days have been gone for awhile now. When the sector became glutted, away went the dividends.

    Tankers are a highly reproducible commodity. All it takes is capital to get in the business. There is no perceivable difference between a suezmax or vlcc crude tanker held by one company or any other of the same age.

    But, the technology of the newer tankers is quite superior and allows them to operate at a lower overall cost compared to the older tankers.

    Now, Frontline finds itself operating in a space in which all of it's competitors drive the prices down because their operating costs are lower by either technology or lack of debt. It is just a matter of time until that debt is removed from the ships.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    guess todays news was bad for FRO shares

    by rami36 Jul 24, 2014 1:40 PM
    barbershores barbershores 8 hours ago Flag

    Hi Mr. Rott,

    From your post: "Equity holders are looking like they're going to get stiffed to me."
    ---------------------------------------------------
    I am expecting this as well. However, JF is an equity holder, and I expect he will end up making out like a rose. Probably by buying up the debt/tankers for pennies on the dollar.

    We shall see.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    BS Fro article

    by barbershores Jul 24, 2014 2:38 PM
    barbershores barbershores 8 hours ago Flag

    Yeah, it's pretty old. Apparently there are some on the board that have to have more substance. If they haven't seen this before, now at least they have something else to whine about. Yawn.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores by barbershores Jul 24, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    finance.yahooDOTKOM/news/investing-frontline-pureplay-crude-tanker-204419856.html

    Hoping this time it actually makes it to the board.

    BOL,

    BS

  • Reply to

    How worthless is this board?

    by jamlsher99 Jul 24, 2014 8:25 AM
    barbershores barbershores Jul 24, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Yeah, I tried linking the investor village FRO site twice, once coded, once not coded. They both evaporated into cyberspace. You will have to go it alone.

    BOL

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    How worthless is this board?

    by jamlsher99 Jul 24, 2014 8:25 AM
    barbershores barbershores Jul 24, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Isher,

    In response to your question:"How worthless is this board?", the answer is "not worthless at all".

    If you were to ask an intelligent question about the sector, you just might be surprised at the quality of the responses you would get. A lot of people on here have been tracking Frontline and the sector for quite some time.

    If you only want to see items posted about Frontline and the sector, you may find that the Investor Village site would be better for you: I shall attempt to link it on an attached post.

    However, it appears there were only 2 posts over the last 2 months. Probably because that's all of the new newsworthy items on this stagnant death spiraling equity over that period. If you were to ask a question there, don't expect a reply for a couple of weeks. That's how long until someone bothers to look at that board/bored.

    The best information can be found on Frontline's web site frontline.bm

    Here if you read the announcements, you will learn the most about the sector.

    The second best thing to read on the FRO site would be to click:
    "investor relations" "bonds" "loan agreement".

    Here you will learn about the sword of Damocles hanging by a single hair over each share holders' head.

    You might consider being more considerate on this board, or you may find some that will entertain themselves by ranking "your" worthlessness. lol

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 21, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    http://news.yahoo.com/obamacare-driven-competition-lowering-rates-090000263.html

    "While health insurers in some states will indeed increase the cost of their policies, early evidence suggests that most increases won’t be any higher than they were before the Affordable Care Act was passed. And millions of Americans will be able to pay considerably less next year for the exact same coverage they have now.

    A big part of the reason that many people will be able to get better deals is increased competition."

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 20, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    This article looks to be pretty consistent with my current understanding about medicaid.

    forbesDOTKOM/sites/brucejapsen/2014/07/20/hospitals-see-troubles-in-red-states-that-snubbed-obamacares-medicaid-deal/?partner=yahootix

    "The moves against expansion are “beginning to hurt hospitals in states that opted out,”"

    "“We expect providers in states that have chosen not to participate in expanded Medicaid eligibility to face increasing financial challenges in 2014 and beyond,” Fitch said in its July 16 report. “Nonprofit hospitals and healthcare systems in states that have expanded their Medicaid coverage under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act have begun to realize the benefit from increased insurance coverage.”"

    "The federal government traditionally picks up a little more than half of the cost of Medicaid. But funding under the health law is unlike past efforts to expand Medicaid in that the federal government will pick up the full tab for the first three years. The state gradually has to pick up some costs in 2017, but by 2020, the federal government is still picking up 90 percent or more of the Medicaid tab."

    "“In states that expanded Medicaid, an estimated 71 percent of the uninsured likely qualify for some type of financial assistance for health insurance, compared with 44 percent of the uninsured in the states that did not expand Medicaid,” "
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    As I said before, Obamacare's medicaid expansion looks to me to be a good deal for the states.

    But, where is the money going to come from?

    Can the fed be trusted to continue funding at 90%?

    Stay healthy.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 19, 2014 1:59 AM Flag

    The next one with major problems with medicaid is blue cross blue shield in New York

    dailycallerDOTKOM/2014/07/18/insurer-drops-new-york-medicaid-coverage-for-53000-over-unsustainable-losses/

    Are these just a couple of odd situations, or is this the beginning of a trend for medicaid?

    For the exchanges, United Health is planning on expanding.

    forbesDOTKOM/sites/brucejapsen/2014/07/17/unitedhealth-to-expand-on-obamacare-exchanges-in-2015-and-beyond/

    We shall see.

    Stay healthy.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 18, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    bloombergDOTKOM/news/2014-07-18/oil-tanker-rates-seen-extending-surge-with-libya-crude-to-return.html

    I posted the link separate since I have been having great difficulty getting Yahoo to accept links from bloomberg.

    We shall see.

  • By Priyanka Sharma Jul 18, 2014 11:15 AM ET
    The biggest surge in oil-shipping costs since January is poised to persist as shipments from Libya act as a catalyst for Asian oil refineries to import more crude from Atlantic Ocean suppliers, RS Platou Markets AS said.

    Libya’s Oil Ministry said July 16 that the nation’s largest and third-largest ports will resume shipments next month after a yearlong blockade by protesters seeking a bigger share of the nation’s crude sales. The North African country holds the continent’s biggest oil reserves.

    Oil tanker rates as measured by the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index jumped 42 percent to 896 points since early June as refineries returning from routine maintenance booked extra ships. An increase in Libyan supplies could drive down the relative cost of crude in the Atlantic, resulting in more shipments from the region to Asia, according to Frode Moerkedal, an analyst at Platou in Oslo. The firm is part of Norway’s largest shipbroking group.

    “If Libyan oil terminals stay open, tanker rates could go higher,” Moerkedal said in an e-mail today. The “return of Libyan oil could give the market another shot in the arm.”

    The premium for Brent crude, a benchmark for suppliers in the Mediterranean and wider Atlantic Ocean, fell to $3.32 a barrel more than Dubai, a benchmark in the Persian Gulf, according to data from PVM Oil Associates Ltd. The premium was as high as $3.85 on June 12.

    Bookings of very large crude carriers, the industry’s biggest ships, are already climbing for loading from West Africa. Charters rose to 31 this month from 24 in June, according to data from Galbraith’s Ltd., a shipbroker in London.

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 18, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dan,

    But you are making my point. Here we have a system which according to you has grown out of control. By the way, I am not claiming you are wrong.

    What did we do? Did we fix it? no. Did we improve it? no What did we do? We expanded it, made it include more stuff, making it more expensive, then gave it to a huge number of more people.

    I don't see our elected officials doing anything to improve the situation with medicaid. Not so long as the democrat party has control of one of the big 3.

    Lets assume that the republicans hold all 3 come 2016. What are they going to do about it? If they don't have a super majority in the senate, they can't make any changes. If they do have a super majority, they will probably just #$%$ the majority of the citizens off when they take stuff away from us.

    What a freaking nightmare.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    BS OPEC projects reduced crude demand next year

    by barbershores Jul 15, 2014 11:07 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jul 16, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Plop,

    Of course you are right. lol

    OPEC production is falling at a rate of 1% per year not 10. While US production is increasing at a rate of 15%/year according to the article.

    Did I get the number of suezmaxes right at least?

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 16, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Yezov,

    From your post: " A free ride for 47% combined with the fact that so many of the low wage earners hide off the books income is a serious impediment to funding state and federal budgets. Many may not be as 'poor' as records show them to be."
    -----------------------------
    Yep! The same trick will be used for Obamacare subsidies and to get on medicaid.

    Part of the law of unintended consequences.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 16, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Dan,

    Of course you are right. And I agree with you.

    However, medicaid isn't new. It's been around for quite awhile. mostly what we are doing right now is expanding it.

    So, to me, the question is how well have we managed these issues in the past.

    The answer appears to be, not so well.

    So, based on experience to date, my expectation would be that once they are on medicaid, they will stay on it for life. Once they have it, they will most likely finagle any potential employment opportunities to maximize their net take, and such will probably test to see if it kicks them off of medicaid.

    However, it could be that with the new Obamacare subsidized premiums, not medicaid, to pay say$100/month, I have no idea what the actual average is today, the test won't be as brutal as when it weren't available. So, a young person making $15,500/year and on medicaid, would have to have a job that pays significantly more than $16,3800 for it to be worth the impact of knocking them off of medicaid.

    An older person on medicaid, earning $15,500/year with a subsidized rate of say $400/month would scoff at a job offering not paying substantially more than $20,300.

    Some will upbracket. But, the majority, the real trend, would be for medicaid to actually keep them down in the sub $15,521 income bracket I have calculated to be the current threshold of 133% of a single person with a poverty level income of $11,630 as of 1/22/2014 . Rising about 1.5%/year.

    Then, there's the guy making $18,000/year but has no insurance. He is eventually going to be forced to take subsidized Obamacare. His income is too high for medicaid.

    But, if he should find a way to lower his income to below $15,521, he will not be forced to pay premiums, even subsidized, on the exchanges. He will be eligible for medicaid.

    If their income/hours are flexible, depending on the state they are in, they might gain more by dropping income.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 16, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Grumpy,

    Things just keep changing. It is very hard to keep track of it all. Plus, a lot of our elected officials put out misinformation as party agenda talking points. So, it's tough to get it spot on. I'm not certain that I have it right. I was just sharing my current understanding.

    A few comments:

    From your post: "Whether 10% would be a good deal might be debatable. Many states are having financial issues as it is."
    ----------------------------------------
    My take is that an awful lot of those folks recently going on medicaid are consuming medical services anyway. But, since they have little money, are stiffing doctors and hospitals. To keep doctors and hospitals in business, states have to kick in some how at some level. My expectation is that if a large segment of a state's population goes from no insurance to being on medicaid which is 90-100% financed by the fed, it will take the pressure "off" of states financially, even if paying 10% eventually. From this perspective, Obamacare should be helping the states.

    But again, there are other issues. The big one is, where is the money coming from?
    Also, can we trust the fed to continue funding at 90%?
    If they don't, how do you kick people off of medicaid?
    These are the issues that I think are keeping many states from accepting the new medicaid program.

    My understanding was that a lot of the source of the money to fund all this was supposed to come from business. Some on this board are of the mistaken belief that Obamacare is now fully implemented. But, that whole business contribution component has been delayed, with some democrat legislators so afraid of the impact that they want to stop it. Near as I can tell, this is going to leave Obamacare as principally a huge unfunded redistribution of the wealth program. Next to last article I read had 83% of new sign ups are subsidized.

    Last article I read had 16% illegal aliens.

    But, I can't post that for some reason.

    BOL

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    BS OPEC projects reduced crude demand next year

    by barbershores Jul 15, 2014 11:07 PM
    barbershores barbershores Jul 16, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Another article discussing US and OPEC production

    thestreetDOTKOM/story/12772703/1/here-are-three-factors-that-could-drag-down-oil-prices-even-more.html

    "OPEC's production reached 29.7 million barrels a day, nearly unchanged from previous months. Iraq's oil output fell by only 5%, month over month. This fall in production was offset by modest gains in production in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. The International Energy Agency also reported little change in OPEC's oil output. "

    "the U.S. Energy Information Adminstration estimates that 2014 U.S oil production will rise by 15% year over year. As the stockpiles keep picking up with the rise of production, oil prices are likely to slowly come down."

    "the EIA estimates that the U.S oil consumption will fall this year compared to 2013. Further, the IEA also projects the global oil consumption will rise at a slower pace than previously estimated"

    "The recent decline of oil prices could continue as long as OPEC's output doesn't fall due to tensions in the Middle East, mainly in Iraq. In the coming months we could see oil prices falling by a few more dollars to a range close to the mid-90's. "

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Jul 15, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    HI Mr. Grumpy,

    From your post: " Once the Feds pulled the few years of subsidies that were on offer, the States would have to shoulder the full cost themselves. "
    ----------------------------------------------
    This is what I thought initially. But, what I read recently has the fed paying 100% in the beginning, then dropping off to 90% for the rest of the time. So, the states would be on the hook for just 10%. From the states point of view, if that is actually how it plays out, that would be a heck of a good deal.

    Where the money would come from would be a different issue.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • OPEC’s Clout Falls as US Increases Oil Supply

    theepochtimesDOTKOM/n3/801931-opecs-clout-falls-as-us-increases-oil-supply/

    "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut demand forecast for its own oil by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2015, mainly due to increased supply from American and Canadian shale formations." That's a 10% drop. Just in one year. Probably the same the next year, and the next. Over 3 years a drop of 30% in demand drop for OPEC. Understand Russia and OPEC now?

    Last week, OPEC’s secretariat in Vienna, Austria, issued a report projecting that demand for oil from its 12 member nations would drop from 29.7 million bpd this year to 29.4 million bpd in 2015.

    Global oil consumption will still increase due to growth in economic activity in the United States and developing nations, but non-OPEC oil producers will largely meet this demand. The cartel expects non-OPEC producers to grow their production by 1.3 million bpd to 57 million bpd by next year.

    “Even if next year’s world economic growth turns out to be better than expected and crude oil demand outperforms expectations, OPEC will have sufficient supply to provide to the market,” stated the OPEC report."
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    A drop of 300,000 barrels per day is equivalent to reducing the number of Suezmax tankers leaving OPEC countries per day by one.
    What's the average turn around time for a suzie? Around 3 weeks on average I figure. So, the demand for suezmax tankers will be down by around 20 by the end of 2015.

    Most of the increase in global crude production is in Canada and the US. Most of that is transported by rail car or pipeline. In the US if hauled US port to US port it must be US made Jones Act Tanker.

    Rising demand for refined product tankers, falling demand for crude tankers.

    This is not good news for Frontline.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershore

  • dailycallerDOTKOM/2014/07/14/chicago-faces-67-million-shortfall-after-obamacares-medicaid-expansion-busts-budget/

    If this is true, and Chicago is just the first of a trend, this could get really expensive fast.

    Seeing how much of the Obamacare sign ups are actually medicaid, and seeing how much of sign ups from the exchanges are subsidized, I have to ask where is all the money going to come from to pay for all of this?

    The Obamacare exchange premiums for me and my wife are more than double what the average medical expenditures are for people in our age bracket, but we aren't paying. Near as I can tell, few people are buying without subsidies unless they have a major medical issue now.

    The trick is to stay healthy and not need any medical services.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

FRO
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