Frontline Ltd. Message Board

Mr. Burry,

Sometimes it's better to take a small loss in the short term, than to end up stuck with a pig you hold over the long term.

Things should be interesting tomorrow morning I think.

Best of luck,

Barbershores

Well, the volume came in like you expected. 4th highest volume in the last 3 months or so. But, it was the sell side that drove the volume.

Still, the stock has been stepping. Maybe it has one or 2 more steps in her before earnings are announced.

It closed at a pretty good entry spot if it does make another step up. That sounds rather hopeful to me though. lol

Just my take.

Best of luck in the great casino,

Barbershores

Best of luck to you Mr. Moon.

Mr. Moon,

If you had purchased 15,000 shares at $1.90, then sold them at $2.22, you could justify feeling like a big winner.

If you buy at $2.22, jus a week or so before an earnings announcement, when the company has been in a downtrend, but just bounced up into an earnings announcement, the emotions you have should be more fearful. To be healthy.

Just my take.

Best of luck,

Barbershores

Hi Mr. Meow,

So, you are concerned with bankruptcy. I find this position just a tad myopic.

Bankruptcy is a legal maneuver taken by a firm, in order to get legal protection for a period, from creditors.

Though bankruptcy is possible, I don't think it likely for Frontline.

Looking at the potential downside risks what is more likely in my view, is restructuring "without" bankruptcy which will further erode share price and perceived shareholder value.

Currently, not only is profit negative, but also cash flow for Frontline is negative.

So, it is bleeding cash badly.

Unless something occurs to fundamentally change the nature of the business, this situation should continue for at least the next couple of years.

At the same time NAV, Net Asset Value, is also negative. And getting more negative every quarter as the remaining true life of Frontline's fleet gets shorter and shorter. This because both the scrap value and market value for Frontline's ships is below total debt, and is falling due to both the aging of their fleet, and the higher technology of the newer tankers-read superior economic efficiency.

So the current share price of just over 2 bucks, is all on hope. Most likely, any price rises will be caused by perceptional changes of the market in the hope/fear relationship regarding this stock. Not by real fundamental changes in the business model. I expect only price bounces for awhile at best.

I don't consider what JF "can" do in absolute terms. Instead, I focus on what potential options JF has which will increase his own personal net worth.

Many on this board seem to think that JF will come in with a billion or so dollars and bail them out. I think this highly unlikely.

More likely he will come up with some maneuver which will increase or maintain his financial situations slightly, and if share holder value is increased in his attempt to do that, they will just luckily be sucked along.

Just my take.

Best of luck

Barbershores

Oops. That was Mr. McCain. lol

Mr. Cain was from a different primary. lol

Hi Didi,

My hope is that JF has some magic he is working and can swap A shares to bond holders to pay them off. If he can't pull this off, the likelihood of restructuring, as he suggested earlier, will be quite significant.

The bond documents are available at Frontline's web site. Click on "sitemap" in the upper right hand corner, scroll down to "bonds", and click on "bonds overview" for the pdf file.

Just hopin.

Best of luck,

Barbershores

Mr. Finster,

Sometimes, dilution isn't such a bad thing. Not only is future profitability being diluted in this instance, but so is debt per share. For each X of potential profit loss per share, 2X of debt is being dropped per share. Plus, with reduced debt, the likelihood of liquidation or bankruptcy is cut dramatically. And, cash flow is improved significantly. The net effect is positive for existing share holders I believe.

At the same time, the debt that was cut was from "convertible preferred shares". So, convertible preferred shareholders already cut into potential profit per A shareholders anyway. So the total dilution from the change isn't really such a big deal.

This form of dilution is far better for current shareholders than a new offering with the proceeds used to pay down debt.

Just my take.

Best of luck,

Barbershores

American Railcar Industries, Inc. Reports Strong First Quarter 2013
Press Release: American Railcar Industries, Inc. – Thu, Apr 25, 2013 10:03 AM NZSTEmail0Share0PrintCompanies:American Railcar Industries, Inc.RELATED QUOTESSymbol Price Change
ARII 35.57 +0.98

First Quarter 2013 Highlights
Consolidated Revenues totaled $195.1 million
Adjusted EBITDA of $42.8 million
Net earnings of $0.84 per share
Railcar shipments of approximately 1,900 railcars
ST. CHARLES, Mo., April 24, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- American Railcar Industries, Inc. (ARI or the Company) (ARII) today reported its first quarter 2013 financial results. "We are pleased with another strong quarter of operating results, driven by strong shipments of tank railcars, which provided us with a favorable sales mix and good earnings," said James Cowan, President and CEO of ARI.
First Quarter Summary
Total consolidated revenues were $195.1 million for the first quarter of 2013, up 7% when compared to $181.6 million for the same period in 2012. Revenues increased primarily due to an increase in revenues for the manufacturing and leasing segments.
Manufacturing segment revenues were $228.4 million for the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 8% over the $211.9 million for the same period in 2012. The primary reason for the increase was a shift in the sales mix to more tank railcars, partially offset by a decrease in the volume of hopper railcar shipments. Manufacturing segment revenues for the first quarter of 2013 included estimated revenues of $55.4 million related to railcars built for the Company's lease fleet, compared to estimated revenues of $47.5 million in the first quarter of 2012 related to railcars built for the lease fleet. Such revenues are based on an estimated fair market value of the leased railcars as if they had been sold to a third party, and are eliminated in consolidation. Revenues for railcars built for the Company's lease fleet are not recognized in consolidated revenues as a railcar

If this makes it, it's a bloomberg link. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-14/oil-tanker-surplus-expands-amid-slowing-demand-to-hire-vessels.html

Railroads are getting pinched right now. Coal shipments are off 18%.

But, most of that loss is being made up in oil tanker cars and shackle boxcars.

Hi Mr. Deloach.

I am still trying to figure out how Yahoo selectively chooses which links to allow or disallow. The one that worked for me, is pretty easy to understand. The source was from Yahoo. So, they finally stopped editing links from their own sources. At least sometimes. lol

Sometimes bloomberg works, sometimes not.

The post I tried to make last night with a chart of the s$p 500 linked from my photobucket account, didn't make it. The chart last night was to demonstrate a recent anomoly. The volume on the stock market is drying up big time since the peak of 2007.

I still find it #$%$ that Yahoo will not allow the linking of stock price charts on a stock message board.

Best of luck,

Barbershores

The next ban is a ban on pressure cookers.

http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-man-arrested-detroit-statement-pressure-cooker-183457440.html

Hi Mr. Relin,

One must be clear about "indisputable evidence".

In our society, "indisputable evidence" has been replaced with "conventional wisdom", which is what is accepted as "usual and customary" and is followed by our so called experts.

So, in our society, at least to those foccused on the "conventional wisdom" that they are following, they will consider anyone "delusional" that does not conform to the acceptance of their "conventional wisdom" even though there is so often "indisputable evidence" that the current "conventional wisdom", followed by many, is inconsistent with reality.

Sometimes the world is simply upside down. lol

Just sayin.

Best of luck,

Barbershores