Sometimes it's better to take a small loss in the short term, than to end up stuck with a pig you hold over the long term.
Things should be interesting tomorrow morning I think.
Best of luck,
Well, the volume came in like you expected. 4th highest volume in the last 3 months or so. But, it was the sell side that drove the volume.
Still, the stock has been stepping. Maybe it has one or 2 more steps in her before earnings are announced.
It closed at a pretty good entry spot if it does make another step up. That sounds rather hopeful to me though. lol
Just my take.
Best of luck in the great casino,
If you had purchased 15,000 shares at $1.90, then sold them at $2.22, you could justify feeling like a big winner.
If you buy at $2.22, jus a week or so before an earnings announcement, when the company has been in a downtrend, but just bounced up into an earnings announcement, the emotions you have should be more fearful. To be healthy.
Just my take.
Best of luck,
Tanker Rates Fall a Third Day as Glut Offsets Increased Charters
By Isaac Arnsdorf - May 17, 2013 11:53 AM ET
Rates for the largest oil tankers on the benchmark route fell for a third day on speculation too many ships competing for cargoes outweighed increased bookings.
Charter costs for very large crude carriers hauling 2 million barrels of Middle East oil to Asia slipped 0.2 percent to 38.33 industry-standard Worldscale points, according to the Baltic Exchange, the London-based publisher of freight rates. The weekly decline of 4 percent was the biggest since April 5.
Traders booked seven ships, the most this week, according to Kevin Sy, a Singapore-based freight-derivatives broker at Marex Spectron Pte. While June charters came earlier than expected, the vessel glut absorbed the demand, with one cargo receiving 10 offers, Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., the world’s second-largest shipbroker, said in an e-mailed report today.
“Although things finally got busier, it was not enough to keep rates at same levels,” Sy said in the report. “There were more than enough ships.”
Daily earnings for the voyage rose 1.1 percent to $10,881, according to the exchange. Those assessments don’t reflect owners cutting speeds to save on fuel, their biggest expense. The price of ship fuel, known as bunkers, increased 0.6 percent to $616.15 a metric ton, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from 25 ports worldwide.
Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in dollars a ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.
India Seen Boosting Tankers on Crude Imports and Product Exports
By Isaac Arnsdorf - May 17, 2013 8:37 AM ET.
India will add demand for tankers as the country imports more crude oil and exports more refined products, according to E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd.
The south Asian nation has replaced the U.S. as the biggest importer of Nigerian crude, lengthening transport distances as India replaces supply from Iran, the London-based shipbroker said in an e-mailed report today. India is also building the first stage of a 145 million-barrel crude reserve, with 40 million barrels of storage expected to be added by April 2014, according to the report. Refining capacity already at a surplus is expanding further, Gibson said.
“Indian oil demand is forecast to rise at relatively strong levels, but refinery expansions are expected to even exceed this over the next few years,” Gibson said in the report. “This is a perfect scenario for tanker owners: more crude in and more products out.”
Hi Mr. Meow,
So, you are concerned with bankruptcy. I find this position just a tad myopic.
Bankruptcy is a legal maneuver taken by a firm, in order to get legal protection for a period, from creditors.
Though bankruptcy is possible, I don't think it likely for Frontline.
Looking at the potential downside risks what is more likely in my view, is restructuring "without" bankruptcy which will further erode share price and perceived shareholder value.
Currently, not only is profit negative, but also cash flow for Frontline is negative.
So, it is bleeding cash badly.
Unless something occurs to fundamentally change the nature of the business, this situation should continue for at least the next couple of years.
At the same time NAV, Net Asset Value, is also negative. And getting more negative every quarter as the remaining true life of Frontline's fleet gets shorter and shorter. This because both the scrap value and market value for Frontline's ships is below total debt, and is falling due to both the aging of their fleet, and the higher technology of the newer tankers-read superior economic efficiency.
So the current share price of just over 2 bucks, is all on hope. Most likely, any price rises will be caused by perceptional changes of the market in the hope/fear relationship regarding this stock. Not by real fundamental changes in the business model. I expect only price bounces for awhile at best.
I don't consider what JF "can" do in absolute terms. Instead, I focus on what potential options JF has which will increase his own personal net worth.
Many on this board seem to think that JF will come in with a billion or so dollars and bail them out. I think this highly unlikely.
More likely he will come up with some maneuver which will increase or maintain his financial situations slightly, and if share holder value is increased in his attempt to do that, they will just luckily be sucked along.
Just my take.
Best of luck
Oops. That was Mr. McCain. lol
Mr. Cain was from a different primary. lol
My hope is that JF has some magic he is working and can swap A shares to bond holders to pay them off. If he can't pull this off, the likelihood of restructuring, as he suggested earlier, will be quite significant.
The bond documents are available at Frontline's web site. Click on "sitemap" in the upper right hand corner, scroll down to "bonds", and click on "bonds overview" for the pdf file.
Best of luck,
Sometimes, dilution isn't such a bad thing. Not only is future profitability being diluted in this instance, but so is debt per share. For each X of potential profit loss per share, 2X of debt is being dropped per share. Plus, with reduced debt, the likelihood of liquidation or bankruptcy is cut dramatically. And, cash flow is improved significantly. The net effect is positive for existing share holders I believe.
At the same time, the debt that was cut was from "convertible preferred shares". So, convertible preferred shareholders already cut into potential profit per A shareholders anyway. So the total dilution from the change isn't really such a big deal.
This form of dilution is far better for current shareholders than a new offering with the proceeds used to pay down debt.
Just my take.
Best of luck,
American Railcar Industries, Inc. Reports Strong First Quarter 2013
Press Release: American Railcar Industries, Inc. – Thu, Apr 25, 2013 10:03 AM NZSTEmail0Share0PrintCompanies:American Railcar Industries, Inc.RELATED QUOTESSymbol Price Change
ARII 35.57 +0.98
First Quarter 2013 Highlights
Consolidated Revenues totaled $195.1 million
Adjusted EBITDA of $42.8 million
Net earnings of $0.84 per share
Railcar shipments of approximately 1,900 railcars
ST. CHARLES, Mo., April 24, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- American Railcar Industries, Inc. (ARI or the Company) (ARII) today reported its first quarter 2013 financial results. "We are pleased with another strong quarter of operating results, driven by strong shipments of tank railcars, which provided us with a favorable sales mix and good earnings," said James Cowan, President and CEO of ARI.
First Quarter Summary
Total consolidated revenues were $195.1 million for the first quarter of 2013, up 7% when compared to $181.6 million for the same period in 2012. Revenues increased primarily due to an increase in revenues for the manufacturing and leasing segments.
Manufacturing segment revenues were $228.4 million for the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 8% over the $211.9 million for the same period in 2012. The primary reason for the increase was a shift in the sales mix to more tank railcars, partially offset by a decrease in the volume of hopper railcar shipments. Manufacturing segment revenues for the first quarter of 2013 included estimated revenues of $55.4 million related to railcars built for the Company's lease fleet, compared to estimated revenues of $47.5 million in the first quarter of 2012 related to railcars built for the lease fleet. Such revenues are based on an estimated fair market value of the leased railcars as if they had been sold to a third party, and are eliminated in consolidation. Revenues for railcars built for the Company's lease fleet are not recognized in consolidated revenues as a railcar
If this makes it, it's a bloomberg link. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.
Railroads are getting pinched right now. Coal shipments are off 18%.
But, most of that loss is being made up in oil tanker cars and shackle boxcars.
Hi Mr. Deloach.
I am still trying to figure out how Yahoo selectively chooses which links to allow or disallow. The one that worked for me, is pretty easy to understand. The source was from Yahoo. So, they finally stopped editing links from their own sources. At least sometimes. lol
Sometimes bloomberg works, sometimes not.
The post I tried to make last night with a chart of the s$p 500 linked from my photobucket account, didn't make it. The chart last night was to demonstrate a recent anomoly. The volume on the stock market is drying up big time since the peak of 2007.
I still find it #$%$ that Yahoo will not allow the linking of stock price charts on a stock message board.
Best of luck,
The next ban is a ban on pressure cookers.
Hi Mr. Relin,
One must be clear about "indisputable evidence".
In our society, "indisputable evidence" has been replaced with "conventional wisdom", which is what is accepted as "usual and customary" and is followed by our so called experts.
So, in our society, at least to those foccused on the "conventional wisdom" that they are following, they will consider anyone "delusional" that does not conform to the acceptance of their "conventional wisdom" even though there is so often "indisputable evidence" that the current "conventional wisdom", followed by many, is inconsistent with reality.
Sometimes the world is simply upside down. lol
Best of luck,