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Frontline Ltd. Message Board

barbershores 200 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Oct 15, 2005
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  • Reply to

    $60,149/day for Suezmax today...

    by play_tow 17 hours ago
    barbershores barbershores 11 hours ago Flag

    From the 4th qtr 2014 announcent:

    Cash cost breakeven rates for the remainder of 2015 ($/ day )
    VLCC $26,400
    Suezmax $19,400

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 3, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    HI Mr. b52,

    I agree basically with Mr. Stocks.

    Added to that, when this all first started, FRO shares were going for a buck twenty five. Now about two and a half. So, the share price has doubled due to the improved profitability. So, the share price "has" risen appreciably since the market shifted to strongly profitable.

    I expect to see the share price eventually rise. We may have some short term down, a couple of bounces, but as we approach the next announcement I expect to see more strength.

    It needs news to move.

    We shall see.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • BS: At some point, there are probably two things going to give way. First, when so much of existing storage facilities are filled, the price of oil will fall once again. It may then make more economic sense to lease tankers and store on the ocean. Thinking China. Second, enough folks will throw in the towel and stop pumping due to a global price below cost, that supply will once again drop to demand. Then the price will finally stop falling. As the price falls to this level, a larger contango may occur and suck up even more tankers.

    Once this settles out though, I expect to see a long stable price structure, both long term and short term, as small price increases make pumping economically viable, where con-tango is eroded, as sea inventory is consumed, and tanker spot rates are back in the toilet.

    http://news.yahoo.com/us-running-room-store-oil-price-collapse-next-171025276--finance.html

    "The U.S. has so much crude that it is running out of places to put it, and that could drive oil and gasoline prices even lower in the coming months.

    For the past seven weeks, the United States has been producing and importing an average of 1 million more barrels of oil every day than it is consuming. That extra crude is flowing into storage tanks, especially at the country's main trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, pushing U.S. supplies to their highest point in at least 80 years, the Energy Department reported last week.

    If this keeps up, storage tanks could approach their operational limits, known in the industry as "tank tops," by mid-April and send the price of crude — and probably gasoline too, plummeting."
    ----------------------------------------
    Mid April is but 5-6 weeks away. I heard someone on CNBC saying that the tight congestion range is consistent with bottoms. Not in my experience. Tight congestion ranges following a trend, usually resolve in continuation. Broad highly virulent and volatile congestion usually indicates capitulative bottoms.

    JMTBOL BS

  • Reply to

    So how much FRO worth in April if they meet payment

    by rami36 Feb 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 2, 2015 11:06 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Grumpy,

    Yeah, that's the way it happens a lot. A company like a tanker company has all these chunks of capital floating around in the water. Just because a company can't make a go of it, and files for bankruptcy protection, doesn't mean that the tankers stop operating.

    What does change is the ownership. The existing share holders are wiped out and the lien holders take possession of the assets/tankers.

    These guys can do what they want. Keep the company intact. Sell the tankers. Lease the tankers out to other concerns. Start a new company with new management

    The business entity/structure isn't particularly important. The tankers will keep on hauling one way or another.

    It's not like a company such as radio shack seeking bankruptcy protection. They are closing 1/2 of their stores. Poof. Gone. No more radio shack there. The spaces are all leased. Maybe the rest will be closed soon, who knows? When they close they are gone. Out of business. No longer operating.

    With tankers, they keep sailing. Now at lower break even costs because they no longer have debt payments.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 2, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Hi Mr Stocks,

    I have the 200dsma at $2.24. Just below your $2.40. Probably within the range of your "ish".

    I wouldn't be surprised for it to bounce off of this a couple or a few times. Probably each successive peak being lower than the previous.

    Then what? Does it run up or break down?

    If the rolls between support and resistance occur quickly, I expect it to break down.

    If, however, it does this slowly, it may eat up enough time to where people will get excited looking forwards to the next announcement.

    That's assuming we have no real news of course.

    I just don't see a catalyst which would cause people to buy into this now.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    So how much FRO worth in April if they meet payment

    by rami36 Feb 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 2, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    General Maritime files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

    Thu Nov 17, 2011 9:28am EST

    "(Reuters) - Oil tanker company General Maritime Corp GMR.N filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday at a time when the shipping industry is grappling with oversupply and depleting earnings.

    Bankers expect more bankruptcies and restructuring in the sector as companies struggle with a worsening world economic crisis and lower earnings driven by a build-up of ships ordered when times were good.

    Oaktree Capital Management will make a $175 million equity investment in General Maritime and convert the company's debt to equity.
    -----------------------------------

  • Reply to

    Look at the three month chart

    by bambusario Mar 1, 2015 11:36 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 2, 2015 7:23 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    I have FRO.ol down over 4% as I write this.

    I expected after the announcement, that it was going to take a breather.

    Do you think that FRO will be a good buy at today's 9:30 am opening?

    I think over the next several weeks we are likely to see better entries. Maybe much better.

    I tend to be more focused on specific patterns for entries, and more focused on timing for exits.

    My last exit shifted later a couple of days because of the lack of strength running up into the earnings announcement.

    I am now using timing to stay out of the trade, but am watching how the price moves relative to key technical levels.

    I am gauging that the likelihood that I will get sucked into a trade within the next 8 weeks is only around 10%.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Look at the three month chart

    by bambusario Mar 1, 2015 11:36 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 2, 2015 7:13 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Plop,

    I am not disagreeing with your assessment of the fundamentals.

    But, all those things are already known and are baked into the current share price.

    My rating FRO a sell at this time is not because I think it is going to lose money yet again 1st qtr.

    My rating FRO a sell at this time is because those that know these facts are already in. I don't think these expectations will cause the stock to break out above of it's current trading range, and a lack of good news will be more likely to cause it to break down.

    It could just roll sideways.

    Rereading your post makes me think that your approach is more that of an investor.

    I am a trader looking for a fairly large move in a short period of time with a high reward/risk ratio.

    I don't think it is there now.

    For both investors and traders alike, I think there will be better entry points over the next 13 weeks than the current price.

    Best to keep an eye on spot rates. They will probably be a better predictor of FRO's price direction over the next several weeks than anything else. If they continue to drop, a lot of excitement will be wrung out of potential buyers.

    If they shoot up, people may flood back in.

    But, spot rates are already pretty darned high. Somehow I think it unlikely that they spike up much higher over the next several weeks.

    We shall see.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 1, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Hmmmm. A man serves a police officer with a summons, and the officer and all his police and office buddies claim he attacked him.

    But, it was video taped, and it is clear that no such thing occurred.

    Who ya gonna trust now?
    -----------------------------------------------

    http://news.yahoo.com/video-exonerates-man-set-louisiana-cops-prosecutors-video-202632601.html

    Video Exonerates Man Set Up By Louisiana Cops And Prosecutors [VIDEO]

    If not for cell phone video, 47-year-old disabled veteran Douglas Dendinger could be going to prison — because of an apparent coordinated effort by Washington Parish, La. cops and prosecutors who falsely accused him of battery and witness intimidation.

    As New Orleans’ WWL reports, Dendinger’s two-year nightmare began on Aug. 20, 2012, when he was paid $50 to serve a court summons on behalf of his nephew against Bogalusa police officer Chad Cassard in a police brutality lawsuit.

  • Reply to

    Look at the three month chart

    by bambusario Mar 1, 2015 11:36 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 1, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    That really groovy pop from a buck twenty five to 5 was magnificent.

    The price of the stock was justified at a buck twenty five because it appeared unlikely that the April maturing bonds would be paid off without deep dilution or shaking off of current share holders.

    The pop up did not come from nowhere. The market changed. The profitability of the company appeared to change drastically to the better. And the price was driven up which caused one hell of a short squeeze.

    Now, we have about 13 weeks until the next announcement. The 4th qtr announcement wasn't near as good as a lot of people were hoping/expecting.

    I expect this dissatisfaction to wear on a lot now that the pop into the news is over.

    I can't picture a great news item to come out between now and the next announcement.

    So, to me, it looks more likely to either languish or break down the current range.

    I just don't see the profit/risk ratio to be positive at this time at least not at the current share price.

    However, if it breaks down, and 6 to 8 weeks from now we are again at a buck and a quarter:?

    Congratulations on your well timed purchase and sales. Looks like you gleaned this one well.

    Anyone that went long with FRO down in the doldrums on the rising spot rates before the price popped did very well. I am quite envious because even though I was smacking the really really dumb shorts around on this board, I didn't buy any myself. It was a nice setup. I even predicted the top at around 5. But didn't buy then. lol

    Just from here, I just don't see anything that would suck me into going long. So, for now at least, I list FRO as a sell. Might get a few nice pops off the 200dsma though. But, I don't like to trade congestion long when I think it far more likely to break down than break out.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck with all your trades.

    Barbershores

    Sentiment: Sell

  • barbershores barbershores Mar 1, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    HI Mr. Stocks,

    Not disagreeing with you, but I don't have that good a perception of the technical competence of the street.

    I can't even remember the name of it now, lol, but there was another tanker company that the street said was "best in breed", and recommended it over Frontline.

    Funny thing is it is gone now. Liquidated. The stock holders got nothing. While Frontline is still hanging on.

    We shall see.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

    Before posting I looked it up. OSG, Overseas Shipholding Group

    Looks like they have reorganized a few months ago after shaking off all the previous stock holders . Symbol is now OSGB

    I wonder what the street's view is on OSGB now? lol

  • Reply to

    Thought I saw VLCC rates over 80 k a week or two ago??

    by rami36 Feb 28, 2015 10:50 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 1, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    I think the answer to your question has to do with how much direct exposure a particular crude tanker company has to the spot market. If they had leased out most of their ships on long term assignments, then the direct impact of a high spot rate pop will be minimal. If they have a lot of exposure to the spot market they can take advantage of that immediately, and, extract a higher rate for long term lease.

    I'm not sure where FRO stands on this.

    They used to disclose their spot exposure in their announcements, but not for a few years.

    If they had a lot of exposure, I would have expected a better performance 4th qtr. Still can't quite tell. 1st qtr announcement will tell a lot.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Look at the three month chart

    by bambusario Mar 1, 2015 11:36 AM
    barbershores barbershores Mar 1, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Hi Mr Busario,

    I look at it a little differently than that. What I see is that 3 months ago FRO shares were trading at a buck and a quarter. Then, once the perception of strong tanker rates was firmly in the minds of holders and potential holders, it popped up above the 200dsma and it keeps pulling back to it. Right now the 200dsma is right around two and a quarter.

    So, to my way of looking, it is currently supporting at two and a quarter, the 200dsma, and resisting a descending line attached at one end to about 3 even.

    I expect to see a nice run up into the next earnings announcement, or a pop up on the announcement as we saw for 4th qtr. From now until then probably languishing between 3 and 2 and a quarter.

    The big question over the next 6 or so weeks is whether or not the 200dsma support, two and a quarter, holds, It could very well break down without new news, or a scheduled news release date to run into soon.

    I shall be sitting on my hands for awhile.

    We shall see how this resolves.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • thestreetDOTKOM/story/13062127/1/frontline-fro-stock-retreating-today-on-earnings-miss.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Frontline Ltd. (FRO - Get Report) are down by 8.63% to $2.54 in late afternoon trading on Friday, following yesterday's release of the company's 2014 fourth quarter earnings results which fell short of what analysts were predicting for the period.

    The Bermuda-based shipping company reported a net loss of 12 cents per share for the most recent quarter, wider than the loss of 4 cents per share analysts had forecast.

    Frontline said that in the fourth quarter of 2014 and in the first quarter of fiscal 2015 it reduced the outstanding balance on its convertible bond loan, which matures in April 2015. The balance was lowered to $93.4 million from $190 million through bond buybacks and debt equity swaps, the company said.

    The company said its goal is to rebuild itself into a "leading tanker company."

    "The continued positive development in the crude tanker market into the first quarter is likely to give an improved operating result (excluding one-time gains and losses) in the first quarter," Frontline said in a statement.

    Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates FRONTLINE LTD as a Sell with a ratings score of D. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

    "We rate FRONTLINE LTD (FRO) a SELL. This is driven by a few notable weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its unimpressive growth in net income, poor profit margins, generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself and feeble growth in its earnings per share."

  • Reply to

    So now folks will start to bail here

    by rami36 Feb 27, 2015 10:27 AM
    barbershores barbershores Feb 27, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Investor,

    Things have changed since this company used to pay out huge dividends.

    Just my take.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

  • Reply to

    Contrary to the seemingly good news.

    by railsnstocks Feb 26, 2015 11:06 AM
    barbershores barbershores Feb 27, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Energy Investor,

    I agree with Mr. Stocks on this one.

    I don't have a core position in FRO. I don't have a core position in anything. I am a trader, and not an investor.

    I was disappointed in the announcement. I expected 4th qtr 2014 to have a lot of profit in it. But, it all evens out over time. Being a trader, I am looking for a big move in a short period of time. I got what I wanted, but there wasn't enough there for me to stay in any longer. My original expectation was to be out after a big run up a couple of days before the announcement.

    I expect this to sell off. My next "trading" opportunity on FRO will probably be heading into the 1st qtr 2015 announcement. I expect to be out for at least the next 6 weeks.

    May I wish you lots of luck with your current positions.

    Barbershores

  • foolDOTKOM/investing/general/2015/02/26/whats-fueling-frontline-ltds-16-surge-today.aspx

    what caused investors to bid up shares was the positive outlook the company gave in regard to its turnaround efforts.

    So what: One thing that caught investor's attention is the improvement in Frontline's balance sheet. The company reduced the outstanding balance on its convertible bond loan from $190 million as of the end of the third quarter to just $93.4 million by the end of the fourth quarter through bond buy backs and debt/equity swaps. The company really needed to take action as the loan matures this April. Based on what it sees the company is confident that it can repay the loan in full this April.

    The other thing investors are taking notice of is the positive developments Frontline is seeing in the crude oil tanker market. The company has been seeing average daily time charter equivalents, or TCEs, increase. Last quarter TCEs for Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, were $27,900 while TCEs for Suezmax tankers were $26,000. Both were well above the previous quarter where VLCCs averaged $24,600 and Suexmax tankers averaged $18,600. This is great news as the company estimates its average total cash cost breakeven rates for the rest of this year will be $26,400 for VLCCs and $19,400 for Suezmax tankers meaning it should start to make some money.

    Now what: Frontline seems to be turning around. The company is rapidly addressing a balance sheet issue as it looks to repay a looming bond maternity. In addition to that, it sees positive trends in the crude oil tanker market as the rates it earns on its vessels are now firmly above its break even costs. This suggests that there are better days ahead for the oil shipper.

  • Reply to

    Contrary to the seemingly good news.

    by railsnstocks Feb 26, 2015 11:06 AM
    barbershores barbershores Feb 26, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks, I sold out first thing this morning. I had expected to see a run up into the announcement, but it didn't come. So, day of the announcement, Right into the gap, I sold. Actually, this could have been played twice from the time I bought it. But I held.

    I had expected to see more income. I think this is telling us something. Perhaps, there are fewer of their tankers on the spot market than we had thought, and most were on long term lease. Those on lease do not get to take advantage of short term high spot rates. But, rolling forwards, as tankers come off of lease, so long as spot rates are high, they can be put to work at spot, or put out on lease at a higher rate. Both good, but still isolating the business from spot in the short term.

    I expect to see sideways to down movement from here for awhile. We may have another high risk/return opportunity going into the 1st qtr announcement. I shall actually be hoping that the price falls from here for the next 6 weeks or so.

    Shorter term, I think it likely the shorts may jump on any weakness causing a down draught.

    We shall see.

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

    Sentiment: Sell

  • http://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-mining-giant-bhp-just-233639236.html

    "The reduction in drilling activity will not impact 2015 financial year production guidance and we remain confident that shale liquids volumes will rise by approximately 50 per cent in the period.

    So BHP is saying that while it is going to shut down numerous oil rigs this year, production isn't going to decline, doing little to change the market dynamics that have led to the crash in oil prices.

    The general thesis for lower prices is basically that lower prices have resulted from an oversupply of the oil market. Oil production from OPEC and the US shale markets also hasn't slowed down at all."

  • Reply to

    People are afraid

    by skidude_1000 Feb 24, 2015 8:39 AM
    barbershores barbershores Feb 25, 2015 5:14 AM Flag

    Hi Mr. Stocks,

    From your post: "So now it comes down to management effectiveness."
    --------------------------------------------------
    In the short term, what I think this mostly means, is how much of Frontline's tanker capacity is on spot right now. Their own ships and those they lease, and those they manage.

    Longer term is how much they are on spot now, but how many are put on longer term lease at much higher rates than before.

    I expect that the current low price of oil is going to extend right through 2015. This will stimulate crude demand and crude shipping demand.

    How long can the contango stay so strong? A longer term contango will suck up all the more tankers for floating storage.

    When they announce, I wonder what the likelihood is that they will declare a dividend?

    Best of luck,

    Barbershores

FRO
2.60+0.02(+0.78%)Mar 4 4:01 PMEST

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