I think the common wisdom (he said sarcastically) is to give these "events" three days to get sorted out ... or at least begin to get sorted out.
Well apparently a boatload of shareholders were clueless about the company or its market. For him to bring up lower oil prices and possible fewer new orders a couple of years out as if the current situation is any different from what it was a month ago is a brainless thing to do. Did they even postulate a new price target? Even he must be a little surprised at the magnitude of the selloff. Wait for it, next week he upgrade it to a strong buy.
If any Stifel clients followed the advice to "hold" they must be super pi$$ed as the analyst.
The price action is totally ridiculous, but obviously some weak hands ( to say the least) ran for the exits.
As I said in an earlier post, if you look at call options through to next January they haven't fallen that much. I was looking for some "cheap" calls to buy in Sept, Dec or January, but there weren't any real bargains awhile ago.
Either the analyst was setting up something or others saw his call as an opportunity to manipulate the hell out of this stock price.
Greenbrier Cos. fell the most in almost seven months after Stifel Financial Corp. analysts estimated that railcar demand will be hurt by a decline in oil prices.
Stifel estimated production will be 84,000 railcars this year, less than transportation consultant FTR Associates’s outlook of 86,000.
"They are probably trying to be RIGHT somehow. Make enough upgrades and downgrades, eventually you might be right. "
I believe that's known as the Jim Cramer system. He makes multiple calls on every stock and selectively remembers which calls to draw attention to and which to ignore.
And looking at the call options for January, it looks like options buyers are expecting prices to be in the $60 to $65 range. Even shorter term call options remain fairly strong.
This stock gets whipsawed about quite regularly even on an intraday basis. Day traders and algorithmic drive trades seem to regard this stock as a profitable toy. I find it hard to believe many longer term retail investors or institutions would be that easily panicked into selling. A few hundred thousand shares changing hands (probably the same hands over and over) are just running the price all over the map.
"they'll find that a "Magic 8 Ball" may be the answer."
Don't knock the proprietary analytical tool used by Jim Cramer.
He thinks that him selling 200 shares (on Yahoo divide by 100 for accuracy) is somehow meaningful and he actually believes everyone will be impressed by his fairytale number of shares.
So awhile ago I sold the Sept $45 calls for $1.10 and the Sept $44 for $1.30. Bought them back at a profit on the Tuesday dip, but still held the stock as the price recovered. When the stock rises some more, I'll probably do the same thing again. It's just another "dividend" added to the already generous distribution from BX.