I hate to hear that you might be leaving Yahoo. You are always a good read and very insightful. Consider the naysayers to be perfectly negatively correlated.
Citi has initiated coverage this week with a neutral rating and PT of $61. It is good to see the pick up in coverage . I suspect this will continue as USCR's one year performance numbers are noticeable versus the market.
Friday saw an interesting spread option trade. Someone sold 2,000 put contracts (i.e. 200,000 shares) for Feb. 2016 with a $12.5 strike and simultaneously bought the same amount of the $17.50. Both sides of the trade were done at $.35. Zero dollars in with significant upside leverage and of course the corresponding $2MM liability if the price were to pierce $12.50 by Feb. Thought some on this board might appreciate the idea.
Spring is the season for home sales, but it's the November-January period that's rally time for homebuilder stocks, says KBW, the team noting 75% of homebuilder returns occur during this period.Homebuilders, they say, historically outperform the market by 1.4% in November, 6.2% in December, and 6.4% in January.The reason isn't too difficult: Markets anticipate, and homebuilding stock buying comes ahead of heavier homebuyer activity.
Still think there is more to be had here. I will stick with the $4 EPS this year and $5 for 2016. Both Stifel and Sternee Agee raised there price targets to $60. For a 52 week target that seems rather modest. A couple more dollars and I will seek to raise cash in my non-taxable accounts.
Danin we are on the same wave length. Four dollars EPS is the number I gave a couple of weeks ago. Now if could just garner a 25 PE like some of our peers we would really be cooking.
The analyst have been consistently behind the curve. The $48 year end number is probably a floor and not a ceiling. Forward earnings at that point will be $4 and the company should be worthy of a 15 p/e multiple. So $60 is not unthinkable. A p/e of 15 is half that of large cap sector brethren.
Interesting article entitled "Will Cell Towers become Obsolete" on CNBC. I have enclosed the bottom third of the article:
The importance of spectrum
Additional spectrum is needed to make this vision of wireless technology a reality, Papa said.
Recent developments in the U.S. point to a bright future for the industry. Last Friday, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved a landmark plan that allows broadband providers to use and share spectrum that was previously held by the military.
"Since they don't make spectrum anymore, and since spectrum is the pathway of the 21st century, we have to figure out how we're going to live with a fixed amount," FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler said.
Papa believes this plan – called the Citizens Broadband Radio Service– will open an enormous playground for entrepreneurs across the globe and augment cellular networks.
Moreover, increased spectrum will mean no one company will dominate device-to-device technology, Papa noted.
"Who's going to be in charge is more of a political question than a technology or industry structure question. The reality is that technology will make spectrum less scarce. When spectrum is less scarce, there's less of a need for a natural monopoly."
Daniel, a billion in revenue sounds about right. I am perplexed by analysts low EPS numbers. Just not indicative of what is being seen at Vulcan or MLM. Normalized earnings are going to be closer to $4 for 2015. Not only are earnings to low, USCR is not getting the valuation of it's peers. The aforementioned companies trade at 40x and 28x 2015 earnings. Lots ways to win, earnings release should be interesting.
Sterne Agee moved there price target up $3 from $39 to $42. I think the performance of MLM and Vulcan will attract some more attention to the sector. Hopefully another analyst or two.
Very healthy report today. A few take aways from the call today:
* Gross profit up 30.5% on 16% revenue growth
* Free cash flow has improved $26.8 million year-over-year.
* We will see older jobs fall off and replaced by better margin projects
* Acquisition pipeline is larger in number and deal size than what was done Q4 and Q1.
Overall no negatives to be found. I see profits ramping up through out this year.
Danin the majority of what you posted is correct with two caveats. First, the easy one - the buyout calculation is accurate as long as 90% of the company is acquired. The more important question is what effect does the issuance of a dividend have on the exercise price? This is covered on page12 of 39 under section 5.1 mechanical adjustments. Section (a) covers regular dividends and stock splits, with (b) addressing special dividends. The short story on the subject is that a regular dividend does reduce the exercise price. I refreshed my memory by pulling up the warrant information located on USCR's website.
The Barron's article was a good read. Also of worthy note were the earnings call for Eagle Materials (EXP) and MLM. All indicated that cement is essentially sold out in Texas for the foreseeable future (I.e. volumes to remain strong). Expectation for pricing was for two increases during the year.
I believe revenues and EPS are being drastically discounted by the analysts. My expectation is that they are off by a dollar on EPS. Something shy of $4 EPS on $900MM in revenue for fiscal 2015. Thursday's earnings call should be interesting.
I saw the Ahern bonds - classic recovery story. Lots of hedge fund money in the Excide 2018s. Why the optimism on 2013s? It was my thought you would get a warrant or two for your trouble and that's it. Plenty of state EPA agencies would like to hang the company. However, a 9-10 bagger in my IRA would be lovely.