Sold at 1.69 for a significant 11% loss on a fairly good-sized investment. Hate to do it, but I see the stock going lower in the near term, and I'm not willing to see my portfolio take the hit. I might get back in if it goes below $1.50.
The reason to stay in is in anticipation of more REG announcements. The eventual revenue from these projects is impressive, but they are cost share and, in my opinion, will have limited positive affect on cash flow. Growth from Inox is also encouraging.
The negative is that it looks like Inox growth will not offset lower DVAR sales and wind sales into China. Specifically, the company has stated that it will take two wind customers with meaningful sales in order to get them to cash flow positive. Inox is there, but the second customer is not. McGahn had stated that the most likely candidate for the second would be JCNE. But sales to JCNE were negligible this quarter.
good luck to all
It has nothing to do with Sinovel. It’s just confidentiality of the price of the parts and the delivery schedule in relation to their most recent order from Inox. If you read the CT order, you can figure it out for yourself. Cut and pasted
“American Superconductor Corporation submitted an application under Rule 24b-2
requesting confidential treatment for information it excluded from the Exhibits to a Form 8-K
filed on June 5, 2014.”
The Form 8-K filed on June 5 was the Inox order. If you read the exhibit to the 8k, you’ll see that the individual prices and the delivery schedule has been replaced by asterisks ***. Cut and pasted:
1.3 The price for each of the [**] ([**]) ECS, FCA Shanghai, China and/or any place in Europe, excluding VAT shall be: EUR [**] (EURO [**] ONLY).
2. Delivery Period:
2.1 The Sets of ECS shall be delivered according to the time and quantity below. The delivery plan can be changed by written agreement of the Parties with a six month advance notice.
Despatch Schedule for an order of [**] Sets.
Sl No Despatch FCA Shangahi, China and/or any place in Europe Quantity
1 [**]Note 1 —
2 [**] Note 1 —
3 [**] Note 1 —
4 [**] [**]
5 [**] [**]
6 [**] [**]
7 [**] [**]
8 [**] [**]
9 [**] [**]
10 [**] [**]
Buyer is desirous that Seller dispatches [**] sets of ECS each in the month of [**], [**] and [**] 2014. Seller will make best efforts to try to prepone dispatches of some quantities of ECS to the months of [**], [**] and [**] 2014. In case there are no dispatches in the month of [**], [**] and [**] 2014, the total number of dispatches till [**] shall reduce to [**].
I was referring to the second article I posted in this thread .. the one that says amsc would help with software issues. That is dated 2013.
Actually, looking at the article again, it was dated June 28, 2013. A year and a month ago, not just a month ago, as I had stated. Sorry for the mistake.
Interesting. About a month ago there was an article in what I think is Scituate’s paper stating that if there was a problem with the turbine’s software, amsc would supposedly be willing to fix it. Google the following sentence:
Scituate's wind turbine owners see little impact from case against Chinese manufacturer
Cut and pasted from the article:
“… Yet the operation of the local turbines is not at risk, Deane said.
‘Under our contracts, yes. If there is any issue [with our technology or software, Sinovel] has to make it right. We’ve also had discussions with AMSC that they would be willing to step in and make it right as well,’ Deane said in a phone interview.
Alterations could include replacing any software determined to be stolen. According to a release issued by Palmer Capital, an agreement is already in place with AMSC to replace software should it become necessary …”
The 390-foot-tall turbine owned by Scituate Wind LLC – a partnership between Palmer Capital Corp. and Solaya Energy – has been offline for 34 consecutive days due to a software problem.
Gordon Deane, president of Palmer Capital Corp., said the down time comes at the tune of about $1,380 per day, or $46,920 total as of today.
“What the operator has been doing is working overnight because they’re talking to people in Beijing to get things fixed,” Deane said Tuesday. “They’ve been trouble shooting, but haven’t been able to figure out what the problem is.”
The Chinese company Sinovel Wind Group Co. Ltd. is the manufacturer of the turbine.
The turbine has failed to produce any electricity since June 26, according to Power Dash, a website that records the turbine’s energy production. It was also offline for more than two weeks in May due to an electrical issue …
… Palmer Capital Corp. and Solaya Energy are also the principals for a turbine in Fairhaven, which is also manufactured by Sinovel Wind Group Co. Ltd.
Deane said the operator visited the Fairhaven turbine to see if the software card from the Scituate turbine’s converter would work there. The Scituate turbine worked with the Fairhaven card, but the Fairhaven turbine wouldn’t run with the card from Scituate, Deane said, suggesting it’s a software issue.
Last June, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that three employees from Sinovel Wind Group Co. Ltd. were being charged with stealing trade secrets from AMSC, a United States-based company formerly known as American Superconductor Inc.
Deane said the ongoing litigation with the manufacturer hasn’t to his knowledge impacted the operator’s ability to fix the turbine. “We specifically asked the question and we were told that’s not an issue,” he said. “But when there’s litigation involved, you don’t get the whole scoop.”
Sorry, forget to supply a reference that Gridon's FCL has no superconducting material.
Google “Gridon platform of FCL solutions” Cut and pasted:
“Two main FCL paradigms have been developed in recent years; saturated-core and high temperature superconductor (HTS) based technologies. HTS-based concepts are challenging technically and commercially. Not only does it require expensive, high-maintenance cryogenic system, the HTS system takes long time to cool-down and recovers following a fault. HTS-based FCLs are limited in their scalability and their ability to handle consecutive faults.
GridON has been focusing on superconducting-free solutions that use standard transformer technology and manufacturing expertise”
For the info that Superpower is supplying the wire for the other project, google “Applied Materials FCL” and read the following statement near the beginning of the p.r.:
“Applied is teaming with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA); Central Hudson, a New York State regulated electric and gas utility; SuperPower Inc., a manufacturer of high-temperature superconducting wire ...”
Applied Materials FCL uses wire supplied by Furukawa Superpower, as stated in press releases. GridON's FCL uses no superconducting material at all.
Thought it might pull back some more, but I lost my patience. Probably I will regret that, but I have cash to add more, and might consider it. This time I am more likely to hold on for a longer-term turnaround. The technicals look good to me, and I think the company's business in the process of picking up.
REG is fine, but I don't think it will do much to decrease cash burn. I am more interested in their wind and dvar business hopefully improving. Inox is obviously going to be growing. They really, really need to see JCNE business pick up too.
good luck to all.
I'm not one to count on the foolishness of the shorts. Seen way too many people screaming that the shorts are idiots as the stock continues to tank and tank.
That said, I do not short, and if I did I would not chose this stock. I may go long again soon.
But it seems to me if a squeeze were to happen as a result of the REG project, then we would have seen a follow-through on Wednesday's action.
Here's what I see happening: YoY comparisons in the coming quarters will be less than impressive. Cash burn continues, dilution continues. But there will be more good news, and hopefully the market will be looking forward to next year. The stock has seen its worst days.
Short covering will be orderly. Just my guess. Good luck
The reaction to the REG announcement was a bit over-bullish, imo. Revenue for this is far in the future, and apparently it will not significantly improve cash flow. It's cost-share.
But yes, it's good news, and along with Inox the company's outlook is finally looking better.
It took me by surprise that REG happened this soon. McGahn had said "sometime this year," and me, always erring on the skeptical, thought it would be later rather than sooner. I also was not expecting such high volume in response. I wonder how many of those shares were put out there via the company's ATM? If the company was smart, they would have taken advantage.
I think it's been expected. More significant is the good news recently that a key senator will probably block a change to the country's renewable energy target. Excerpt from the NYT:
SYDNEY, Australia — Opposition politicians and environmentalists in Australia reacted with dismay Thursday to the country’s repeal of laws requiring large companies to pay for carbon emissions, saying that it made Australia the first country to reverse progress on fighting climate change.
The Senate voted 39 to 32 on Thursday to repeal the so-called carbon tax after Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s conservative government secured the support of a number of independent senators. The House of Representatives had voted earlier in the week to repeal the unpopular measure, which has been a highly contentious issue in Australian politics for seven years.
The tax was devised to penalize hundreds of Australia’s biggest producers of carbon emissions, setting a price of 23 Australian dollars, or $21.50, per metric ton of carbon dioxide when it was put into effect in 2012 under then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard of the Labor Party, which is now in the opposition. The price rose to 25 Australian dollars this month.
Mr. Abbott, of the conservative Liberal Party, who took office in September, made repealing the tax a central pledge of his election campaign, arguing that ending it would reduce electricity prices and enhance economic growth. But he struggled twice to get the measure through the Senate before the vote Thursday. The government now plans to introduce a range of measures that it says will encourage business to reduce pollution, rather than penalizing polluters.
After the vote Thursday, Mr. Abbott characterized the tax as a “useless,
Inox Wind gets SEBI approval for IPO
BY BHAWNA GUPTA
… When it originally applied for the IPO last year, Inox Wind had sought to raise around Rs 550 crore through fresh issue of shares besides offer for sale by its promoters. Almost half of this was to be used for securing long-term working capital requirement and the rest was to be used to spruce up manufacturing capability and invest in a subsidiary involved in turnkey solution provider for wind power projects.
Last week, a top executive of the firm had said it may look to raise Rs 1,000 crore this fiscal as it awaited SEBI approval to the issue ...
My comment. They are upping the amount to be raised. It could be that they will add more capacity than originally planned. But, remembering that Inox just had a major fire at their blade factory, the larger offering could be to help cover the cost to rebuild.
You can read the entire complaint related to the WSJ’s story by cutting and pasting the following into a google search:
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE : COMMISSION, : : Plaintiff, : : v. : Civil Action No. : ERIC J. McPHAIL, : JURY TRIAL DEMANDED DOUGLAS A. PARIGIAN
It is not big news. I suspect it’s the same insider involved in two previous cases, but the SEC’s net just got a little bigger and bagged a few upper-middle class cronies who made a few easy bucks on someone’s loose mouth. Yes, I know I’ll be criticized for concentrating on the little issues, but I’m not asking anyone to concentrate on this. I just think it’s interesting reading. Read it or don’t. It’s up to you.
I think stuff like this happens all the time, but usually no one gets caught. I have a theory on how this investigation came into being: When the DoJ was making their case their case against Sinovel, it’s possible they were interested to see if they could implicate any Sinovel execs or other Chinese nationals for trading amsc stock with inside info. So they could have checked into who was shorting amsc immediately before the Sinovel fallout was made public. Instead of implicating China, what they found was an amsc executive who bought puts. That info could have been passed on to the SEC. Now it’s just a matter of whoever is in charge of that investigation doing his job and digging deeper.
Just a theory. Good luck to all.
Two previous Sinovel CEO's resigned in the last few years, and each time posters on this msg board speculated that a settlement was around the corner. Wishful thinking.
This resignation comes close to Sinovel's next earnings report. Could mean news will not be good. There has been speculation in the media that Sinovel could default on their bonds. Sinovel showed improvement in their sales last quarter, so that offered hope that the company could turn around. Those hopes could be either confirmed or dashed by their next earnings report. The CEO resigning at this time could mean something ... or could mean nothing.
Sinovel last reported a cash balance of about $470 million. If the cash burn continues, then the window for a meaningful legal reward or settlement for amsc is closing.
Inox Winds aims to raise $165M through IPO this fiscal
The firm aims to execute orders worth 500 MW by this fiscal which may translate into a top line of Rs 3,000 crore in FY15.
Optimistic about the next wave of growth in wind power, the USD 2 billion Inox Group is looking at the capital market for Inox Wind Ltd to raise around Rs 1,000 crore by this fiscal.
It would be the third entity of the group to get listed.
"We are looking at raising around Rs 1,000 crore from the market. Our merchant bankers have indicated that we may get the approval from regulators soon. We may list it by this fiscal," Inox Wind Ltd director Devansh Jain told PTI.
He said the company will dilute only a minority stake in the proposed public offer.
Wind power solutions providers since 2010, Inox Wind is a subsidiary of listed Gujarat Fluorochemicals. The other publicly held company under the group is Inox Leisure.
Jain said the new government is giving a major thrust to the renewables including wind power and he hoped that a domestic market of wind power projects totalling 3.5 GW will roll out year-on-year.
He said the company expected accelerated depreciation benefit being restored for wind power and a boost for this form of renewable energy industry to come out of sluggish growth seen in the last 2-3 years.
"We have generation based incentive now and do not see any reason that accelerated depreciation benefit being restored as government has recognised the issue," Jain said.
Despite odds the the industry trend has been bucked and is profitable since 2011, Jain said.
Speaking about application of the Rs 1,000 crore proposed from the IPO, Jain said the fund will be used for ramping up capacity, increasing land bank and enhancing power evacuation infrastructure, meeting working capital needs and other corporate purposes.