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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

barrygeo 378 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 12:34 AM Member since: Oct 8, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Will trade back over a buck

    by barrygeo Dec 23, 2014 12:51 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 24, 2014 12:34 AM Flag

    dash trader,

    In the Nov 6, 2012 conf call, CEO McGahn stated:

    “As a reminder, the vast majority of the expenses related to our litigation against Sinovel are already behind us. Future legal fees will primarily be on contingency and will be tied to proceeds from either a judgment or a settlement"

    end quote.

    This is supported by the company's figures in the last 10k. If you care to read it, on pg 41 you'll find that amsc spent $18,000 on Sinovel litigation in the fiscal year ending Mar 31, 2014. This compares to $691,000 in the fy ending Mar 2013, and $5,846,000 in the fy end Mar 2012.

    18 thousand dollars last year. That's nothing.

    Hope that helps you figure things out. Good luck

  • Reply to

    Will trade back over a buck

    by barrygeo Dec 23, 2014 12:51 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 23, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    dash stated: "The reason they need money is that they're fight a giant lawsuit in attempts to get 1.2 billion dollars. Lawsuits are very expensive!"

    That is incorrect. The company stated a long time ago that any further legal expenses connected to the Sinovel lawsuit would be on a contingency basis only.

    The reason they need money is because they continue to burn cash from operations.

    good luck

  • Reply to

    Will trade back over a buck

    by barrygeo Dec 23, 2014 12:51 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 23, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    dash, I think your trading time frame is shorter than mine. Good luck

  • Reply to

    I've added amsc again

    by barrygeo Dec 22, 2014 1:22 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 23, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Based on guidance, sequential revenue is about to double compared to the last two quarters. First 6 months of this fy revenue was $24 million (about $12m per quarter). They guided for $65m - $75m total revenue for the year. Subtracting out the $24m from the first 6 months, the lower end of their guidance suggests $41m revenue over the next six months. (More than $20m per quarter.)

    That's the lower end of their guidance. The company's history of meeting guidance is not perfect, but it's fairly good, imo.

    Inox is likely the main driver of their revenue improvement, and if you've been reading anything about the wind market in India, their revenue from Inox will most likely increase in the future.

    I have no illusions, though. As I've stated before, Inox alone will not get this company to cash flow positive. It's not a good long term investment at this time. But the stock is oversold given that things will most likely improve in the immediate future.

    Anyway, hyattyattyatt, it's funny you should demand "data" from me. You don't seem to be big on "data" yourself, looking at some of your posts.

    good luck

  • ... within a few months.

    In the face of what must be some selling pressure from tax loss selling, the stock is holding up or rising slightly on higher volume. RSI improving and MACD turning positive.

    Yes, the company's current balance sheet and their financial performance in the last few quarters are pathetic, but so what? The stock is oversold and revenue is practically guaranteed to be on the rise, due mostly to Inox.

    Not enough to turn cash flow positive, of course. This is not a safe long term investment unless something really breaks for the company. It's a good trade here, though, imo. GLTA

  • Today at .78 Ave = 0.80 This is now sort of a large investment for me. I could possibly double down once more, but I would have to sell some of my only other holding, gcap.
    glta

  • barrygeo by barrygeo Dec 19, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    today at $2.38. 23% profit on shares held a little over a month.
    This was about my goal. It actually looks to me now like it could have some more upside, but I won't be too greedy.
    This company is now a much better investment than it was during the days of unsustainable dividends and inflated charters due to expire. The balance sheet looks a lot more like how they manage their parent company, dsx.
    Yes, the container market has improved and may see some more improvement, but the truth is that it will still be a difficult market to be in for a while. That's why I still don't see this as a great long term investment.
    I could be wrong and I often am.
    glta

  • Reply to

    Sinovel gets $287m investment

    by barrygeo Dec 16, 2014 10:02 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 16, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    "... chineese government is only hope"

    Which would be the same as saying "there is no hope."

    No, there is no hope for the lawsuit. I'd love to be proven wrong about that while I'm holding some shares, but I just don't see it.

    The hope is increased revenue due to Inox. Maybe Navy or REG bringing hyped attention to the shares. Maybe JCNE picking up business, though I'm sort of skeptical about that.

    I'm wondering if amsc is going to announce some more cutbacks soon.

    glta

  • Reply to

    Sinovel gets $287m investment

    by barrygeo Dec 16, 2014 10:02 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 16, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    This cash will very quickly go to Sinovel's bondholders, imo. Consider how the numbers add up:

    According to the Financial Times, Sinovel's cash balance at the end of Sept was 1202 million CNY. Plugged into a CNY to dollar converter, I get a cash balance of $196 million. Add the $287m investment, and I get a cash balance of $483m, not counting any cash burn since Sept. Last quarter's cash burn was $47 million, so if it's about the same, we're looking at a cash balance for Sinovel of about $436 million.

    Sinovel's total debt stands at about $508 million. The majority of that debt consists of about $450 million in notes due in 2016, but the noteholders have the option to redeem them Dec 27 this year. That is less than two weeks from now. It is that $450m in debt that needed to be immediately addressed, and it turns out the investment of $287 is probably enough of a boost to for Sinovel to be able to honor the bondholders who chose to redeem their notes early.

    Forget about the lawsuit. I guess you could say this financing keeps amsc's hopes alive, in that it keeps Sinovel solvent for the moment. But next we will simply see the Chinese courts and arbitrators continue to delay, while Sinovel's bondholders start cashing in just a few weeks.

    Just my take on things. good luck

  • Cut and pasted:

    Dec 16 (Reuters) - Sinovel Wind Group Co Ltd
    *Says potential investors plan to invest 1.78 billion yuan
    ($287.32 million) to acquire part of company's receivables to
    help in its debt repayment

  • barrygeo by barrygeo Dec 12, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    at 0.78
    ave = 0.81
    glta

  • Reply to

    Maritime Today

    by fredpigtankus Dec 11, 2014 7:06 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 11, 2014 9:41 PM Flag

    I believe this is a solid state laser and has nothing whatsoever do with any technology amsc offers. But it is interesting.

    google the following for a research report to Congress on Navy lasers:

    Navy Shipboard Lasers for Surface, Air, and Missile Defense: Background and Issues for Congress

    rip's question about weather is perfectly valid. Cut and pasted from the "Limitations" section of the report:

    "Atmospheric absorption, scattering, and turbulence; not an all-weather solution. Substances in the atmosphere—particularly water vapor...scatter light from a shipboard laser, and atmospheric turbulence can defocus a laser beam. ... Absorption by water vapor is a particular consideration for shipboard lasers because marine environments feature substantial amounts of water vapor in the air.... lasers might not work well, or at all, in rain or fog, preventing lasers from being an all-weather solution"

    glta

  • barrygeo by barrygeo Dec 9, 2014 10:44 PM Flag

    and bounced (for now). Uptrend starting early-mid Sept remains valid.
    The days of unusually low volatility (forex and stocks) might be a thing of the past, which is good for gcap's business.
    glta

  • barrygeo barrygeo Dec 9, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I don't know about that. The original ownership statement in 2011 indicated the shares were held in behalf of five individuals (the partners are individual people, not entities). If you read the Dec 3 form 13, it lists those same five individuals and the number of shares they hold after the distribution. But if you add the total shares, it comes no where near the 5 plus million held by Edison, so I don't know how to account for that.
    glta

  • Reply to

    Navy Contract

    by gappinguptowin Dec 9, 2014 10:08 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 9, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Interestingly, the cryogenic provider in the proposed contract went BK more than a year ago. Their assets bought by an Isreali company. Google the following:

    Israeli Qnergy acquires CSP Dish-Stirling developer Infinia

    I think Infinia started out with the idea of using the sun's energy to power a Stirling generator. You reverse the Stirling machine (apply electric current to it), and use it as a cryocooler.

    glta

  • barrygeo barrygeo Dec 8, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    If it was a sale, the code on the form 4 would have been "S". The code was "J", which means "other", to be explained in a footnote. The footnote states that the shares were distributed to the partners.

    Monthly metrics should be coming out soon. Hope they are decent

    glta

  • at 0.80
    ave = 0.84. Still rather small position here. Will have the means to pour it on if it keeps tanking.
    glta

  • barrygeo barrygeo Dec 8, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    Actually not quite correct. Edison Ventures distributed its shares to their five individual partners. We don't know if (or how many) shares those individuals have sold. I guess some selling by those guys would account for the recent price action at high volume.

    I'm still holding here. Good luck

  • barrygeo by barrygeo Dec 8, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    All you can find is positive news for India renewables since their last election. Google the following for a recent write up:

    Renewable energy companies gear up for big-ticket fundraising with IPOs

    I don't think there's much doubt that revenue for amsc will be ticking up sequentially due to Inox Wind. Unfortunately, Inox by itself won't do it for amsc, and cash burn will continue. About $80 million remaining on the shelf, and they will most likely have to dip into it within 6-9 months, in my opinion.

    glta

  • Reply to

    back in amsc

    by barrygeo Dec 5, 2014 10:56 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo Dec 5, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    No target, rip. Just being flexible for now. You could be right about the next few weeks, which is why I started out with a small position, and willing to average down (maybe)

    But then again, sometimes these tax-selling predictions don't seem to happen.

    good luck

AMSC
0.82+0.01(+1.06%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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