I hope ya'll are right.
It's a good company with a prudent and disciplined lending policy, and if they can get their interest income back to historical levels, I think the dividend is safe. Good luck to all.
Today at 11.88
Hard to say if its found support. The way I figure, a dividend cut is likely sometime later this year. But the stock price to some extent probably already reflects that expectation, so the risk to principal might not be so bad.
Google the following for an interview with inox ceo:
bullish on wind power: inox wind
What was not asked in the interview was how soon capacity expansion will take place. The ceo talks on and on about how great the renewables market in India is, but so what if you don't have the capacity to capitlize on that?
It's tested and passed support here at least three times in the last 14 months or so. Eventually it will fail (maybe this time) and then it's difficult to say. But I would guess around $10.50
Inox Wind's order book stands at over 1400 mw:
The company is in active discussion across the board with IPPs, utilities, and expect robust inflow of orders over the next two quarters.
Inox Wind announced results for the fourth quarter ended 31st March, 2015. The Net profit rose 156.54% to Rs. 117.88 crore in the quarter ended March 2015 as against Rs. 45.95 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2014. The Sales rose 37.17% to Rs. 928.47 crore in the quarter ended March 2015 as against Rs. 676.87 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2014.
For the full year,net profit rose 124.09% to Rs. 296.42 crore in the year ended March 2015 as against Rs. 132.28 crore during the previous year ended March 2014. Sales rose 74.49% to Rs. 2702.70 crore in the year ended March 2015 as against Rs. 1548.95 crore during the previous year ended March 2014.
Presently, the company's order book stands 1400 mw. The company is in active discussion across the board with IPPs, utilities, and expect robust inflow of orders over the next two quarters. The company is set to double the capacity by taking the existing capacities from 800 megawatts to 1500 megawatts. For the next financial year, they anticipate to see a huge growth.
No one bought anything. These shares are restricted stock that are awarded at no cost whatsoever. Notice the price in the form 4 $0.00
They are awards for management doing such a fine job.
My mistake icon, realized gains such as Box and other IPO's have to be distributed, like you said. I think it's 90% v 98% for NII. Is that right?
Your points are well taken, but:
With $64.5m remaining of HTGZ notes at 7%, the very most they get from calling the whole bundle is $4.5m per year, or $1.1m per quarter. If they only call another $20m it's only $350K per quarter. And of course, any cash they use to call debt is less spillover they can distribute to shareholders.
Monetizing Box does not increase DNOI, since DNOI does not include one-time gains. Yes, this is just accounting, but the point is you can't always count on one-times to make up for payouts that are now consistently exceeding DNOI.
The fact that management states they will revisit their dividend policy after Q2 is a hint that things might not be sustainable.
It's a fine company, safe and well-capitalized, but the market realizes that the heyday is over, and that's why the stock is doing what it's doing.
"why do you see a dividend cut? The spillover income is more than adequate."
Yes that will cover them for a while. But the distributable net op income has been trending down and is now well below the .31 per quarter payout. It was .25 this quarter based on ave shares out of 63.783m. But the current shares out now after the offering is 72.891m. Doing the math, the quarter's $15.712m of DNOI distributed over the real number of shares out is just 21.5 cents.
Investment in Australian renewable energy projects came to a grinding halt a few years ago when a new govt reversed policy. At one time amsc did fairly good dvar business in Australia in support of wind farms there. The latest pr on dvar sales mentions sales to Australia, but I assume amsc’s business in that country has declined in recent years.
It is nice to know amsc still has a presence over there, because it looks like the opposing parties in Australia are finally near reaching an agreement on a renewable energy target. Looking forward, this could help amsc’s dvar business, although I don’t know by how much.
I think it has a good chance of holding above $6. I know it's true that stocks usually visit the price of their secondaries, but there are exceptions. And it seems the reaction usually happens rather soon after the pricing.
Every day it holds in this range makes it less likely to drop below the $6 pricing.
Just my guess. Good luck
... was peanuts compared to the next Inox order. But a pickup in dvar business is a welcome contribution. I don't know if that pace ($9m / qrt) can be maintained, but if it can then my guess is dvar + inox = minimal cash burn going forward
Something like 15 million shares out after the secondary. At $6.50 pps, about a $97 million market cap. I am hopeful that revenue will be more than $100 million in fy 2015, so the valuation looks reasonable to me. But I won't lie, it looked a lot better before the latest round of financing.
I still feel confident with my $7.70 ave, but I was surprised the financing came so soon (I thought they would hold out a few more quarters) and the price was disappointing. It's my own fault, because I think if I'd studied the numbers more ... the cash balance, burn rate, and the payment to Ghodawat ... I might have seen that offering would happen sooner than later.
good luck to all
I think your $9 million/qrt burn rate is probably too high. I don’t think it was quite that high last year, and I expect it to improve in the future.
The last 10q states that “Cash used in operations for the nine months ended December 31, 2014 was $20.9 million” … which is about $7 million per quarter.
At dec 31 they had about $36.5m of cash and restricted cash. According to their preliminary results pr, they expected to report a cash balance for Mar 31 of “ $24.5 million of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, which reflects payment made to Ghodawat Energy Pvt Ltd during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014 in final settlement of their arbitration claim.”
… a decrease of about $12m cash balance for the quarter.
The payment to Ghodawat was about $8.5 million. Doing the math, excluding the one-time payment to Ghodawat, cash burn for the most recent quarter was $3.5 million.
I don’t claim to know what cash burn will be like in coming quarters, but it’s bound to be a decent improvement from last year, due mostly to Inox. But turning cash-flow positive is going to be a tough nut for them, and I think you are right to assume there will eventually be more dilution.
I think last year there was an initial $40m order from Inox, and later they had to add a $15m order to that. In Inox' prospectus, it says the contracts cover deliveries up to the end of April 2015, so we should see a new order in the next month or two (would be my guess).
Figure $55 million total last year, then look at Inox' recent growth rate, and maybe the next order will increase somewhat in proportion to how much Inox is growing. The most optimistic guess I'm willing to venture is a 50% increase from last year's order, which would be about $80 million.
But like I said, it's a guess, and it could be substantially more or less than that. Let's hope the market reacts favorably.
AMSC never had a chance of getting anything out of China's courts, in my opinion. For that matter, even an award from the U.S. courts will simply be ignored by Sinovel, because the U.S. will have no way to enforce it.
The market is aware that the legal route will not pan out for amsc, and that is reflected in amsc's stock price.
Look for good news in other areas. Particularly, next Inox order, and maybe dvar business will pick up.
That company's reporting of full-year profit for 2014 - after they suffered heavy losses the first three quarters - didn't seem quite right to me. They sold a bunch of their receivables in order to pay off debt, and I think they were able to report that sale as a profit (Thus, technically, the full-year profit.) But it looks like 1q 2015 was terrible for Sinovel. Google the following:
Sinovel swings to USD-13m profit in 2014
cut and pasted:
"Yet, in the first quarter of 2015 the company’s attributable net loss widened to CNY 248 million from CNY 171.2 million in the same period of 2014. This came as a result of a 84.14% year-on-year drop in January-March revenues to CNY 228 million."
Now google the following:
US warns China over intellectual property risks
Deep in the story there is mention of the amsc-sinovel legal dispute, and a single sentence that caught my attention:
"Chinese wind industry sources say the government has quietly sidelined Sinovel from participating in new tenders."
So the embarrassment of a large bond default was avoided by the sale of receivables. And they are going to let Sinovel continue to wither away.
And sooner than I thought. But there's no date or number of shares set yet. My bull argument is weakened by this notice, but at the same it's strengthened by the company's announced expectations for DVAR sales, another REG project, and more Navy business.
I'd already been expecting a "large wind order", but I hesitate to guess a dollar figure.
I'll be holding, and maybe even adding more shares if it drops below $9. good luck