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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

barrygeo 111 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 3:58 PM Member since: Oct 8, 2004
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  • Considering getting back in but I'll probably hold off a bit. A sort of don't like buying before next earnings. But as I've stated before, I think expectations are already low, stock is already beaten up, and I do not think we will see a big drop after earnings.

    Just my guess.

    Good luck to all.

  • Reply to

    China's point of view

    by barrygeo May 19, 2014 6:24 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 19, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    Somehow I am not surprised that the Communist Central Party School in China would distribute a handbook containing phrases in English that are useful to reassure foreign corporations that their intellectual property is respected.

    I wonder if Sinovel's executives pulled out that phrase book when they first met Dan McGhan?

    “We attach great importance to protection of intellectual property rights and take it as a national strategy.”

    Imagine the speaker with a wide smile and a thick Chinese accent.

    good luck

  • Google, "U.S. Treads Fine Line in Fighting Chinese Espionage" for a good NY Times article on the cyber espionage charges filed today against Chinese military officials. It contains a good explanation of why, in my opinion, China does not view Sinovel's theft of amsc's IP the same way we view it.

    For the Chinese "... the distinction between spying for commerce and spying for national security is a tiny one, and distinctly American."

    " “The Chinese response was that building China’s economy and strengthening its technological base were national security issues,” James A. Lewis, a cybersecurity expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote shortly after the indictment was announced. “One People’s Liberation Army officer put it this way: ‘In the U.S., military espionage is heroic and economic espionage is a crime, but in China, the line is not as clear.' ”

    I think it is correct for the U.S. to bring this stuff out in the open. But I see China digging in their heels in response. It will make them less likely to give ground in lawsuits like amsc's.

    just my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Return of Capital (ROC)

    by uhlerf May 16, 2014 3:32 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 19, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    {how come when they Increase the dividend, the stock only goes up the increase amount, but when it's Decreased, it went down 6x the decreased amount}

    It's a good question and here's my hunch: Yields in the 15% to 20% range raise alarm bells for savvy investors, who realize in most cases these yields prove to be unsustainable. At the same time, they attract less experienced investors, who buy the stock because they love the dividend and don't realize it won't last. So your shareholders consist of a lot of investors who are there only because they love the dividend.

    Keep the dividend or increase it, and you can attract a few more yield-greedy investors, and maybe modestly increase the share price. But cut the dividend by two-thirds, and all of a sudden you have alienated the majority of your investors, who were only there for the big yield to begin with. Mass exodus.

    good luck

  • barrygeo barrygeo May 17, 2014 1:59 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    The Case of the Missing DofJ Sinovel Case.

    by ripvanwinkle47 May 16, 2014 11:07 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 16, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    "I didn't think international law was another talent in your tool box."

    Thanks for the constructive criticism, mchase. The DOJ case is filed in U.S. Federal Court and deals with alleged violations of U.S. laws. This is not international law.

    good luck

  • Reply to

    The Case of the Missing DofJ Sinovel Case.

    by ripvanwinkle47 May 16, 2014 11:07 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 16, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    A misguided focus of your research energy, rip. Sinovel has no U.S. assets, and, even if ordered to pay by the U.S. Justice Dept., would simply ignore the ruling, knowing DOJ is powerless to enforce to ruling.

    The DOJ case is strictly international politics.

    good luck

  • barrygeo barrygeo May 16, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    If you google “sinovel balance sheet” one of the links that comes up is “Balance Sheet – Markets Data – Financial Times” (When I do the google search it’s the second in the list). Click on that link. From there, you can click on the “balance sheet”, “cash flow” or “income statement”. There is also a spot where you can chose “annual data” or “interim data”. The “interim data” is the results from their last reported quarter.

    If you go to the balance sheet interim data, you’ll see that Sinovel had a cash balance of 2.924 billion yuan (CNY) on Mar 31, 2014. When I plug this into a yuan-dollar converter (1 CNY = 0.160374 USD) I find that Sinovel had a balance of about $470 million on Mar 31, 2014

    As far as this relates to Sinovel’s obligations on their bonds, google “Sinovel Wind Bonds Suspended From Trade After Yearly Loss Widens” read the Bloomberg article of Apr 30.

    Sinovel has two sets of bonds, both due in 2016. One set is for 2.6 billion yuan, the other just 200 million yuan.

    According to the Financial Times balance sheet, the current portion of Sinovel’s long term debt is 361 million yuan. Assuming that number is what they will be owing in interest payments on their bonds this year, I don’t think Sinovel will have a problem servicing the interest on their debt for the time being. However, the Bloomberg article states that bond holders have the option to sell back 2.6 billion yuan bonds on Dec 27. Considering Sinovel’s current cash of only 2.9 billion yuan, and burning that, then I believe the bond holders could theoretically force Sinovel into BK if they demand payment at the end of this year.

    In the meantime, any Chinese court decision against Sinovel and ordering payment to amsc would be contrary to the interests of Sinovel’s bond holders.

    Good luck

  • barrygeo by barrygeo May 15, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    Shanghai exchange confirms Sinovel suspension
    14 May 2014 by Jianxiang Yang

    CHINA: China's Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has decided to maintain the suspension of Sinovel's two bonds.

    In a statement posted on the SSE website, Sinovel said it had received a formal letter from the stock exchange notifying it of the ruling.

    The two bonds have had their designations altered, replaced by new names "Rui 01 Zanting"and "Rui 02 Zanting". The Chinese "Zanting" literally means "suspended". But their code numbers remain unchanged.

    The two bonds were issued in December 2011, totalling CNY 2.8 billion in value. They were temporarily suspended on 30 April, seven working days before SSE's final ruling landed.

    The suspension came in accordance with China's regulatory rules on stock listing. This stipulates that a listed company will have special treatment if it reports negative net profit in two consecutive years.

    On 5 May "Huarui Fengdian", the designation of the Sinovel stock, was also changed into " *ST Ruidian". ST stands for "special treatment"and the asterisk mark warns investors of the highly risky nature of the stock. The share will surely be delisted if the company fails to make a profit in the following year, an SSE analyst said.

    The Chinese manufacturer posted a loss of CNY 3.45 billion ($559 million) in 2013, more tha twice the previous year's loss of CNY 583 million.

    It is not known how long the suspension period for the two bonds will last. In the above mentioned statement, Sinovel said it would continue to fulfill the legal obligations associated with the listed bonds.

    Sinovel's annual report said the firm had canvassed 303MW in new orders in 2013, including 30MW from the international market. Shipments of wind turbines was expected to reach 200MW this year, roughly doube that of last year, Sinovel president Liu Zhengqi said earlier this month.

    "The priority of the company is to turn deficit-running into profit-making this year.

  • barrygeo barrygeo May 15, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    { Div cut would allow 14M over the year towards capital growth..}

    Exactly. Cutting the div by 10 cents per share per quarter, with 35m shares out, saves $3.5m per quarter, which would be $14m per year.

    However, they stated in the conf call they were looking at post-panamax ships for purchase. Their last purchase of two post-panamax ships was made at $47m per ship. So, at that price, a savings of $14m per year buys them about one-third of a ship per year.

    Come on, folks. Do the math and think on your own. There's nothing wrong with calling ir, but be aware when you do so you are talking to someone who has been trained, and is paid, to be good at making investors feel good about things.

    The "strength of the financials standing on their own" is valid until the above-market charters expire next year. Then your revenue and cash flow drops significantly. The good thing about the above-market charters expriing on the older, obselete ships is that a few of them will most likely get scrapped for cash. That will add to cash on hand and help to buy one or two more modern ships. But the new charters will not be as profitable as the older ones.

    That's just my take.


  • The wind power industry in Tamil Nadu is likely to give Renergy 2014, a major renewable energy exhibition-cum-conference sponsored by the Tamil Nadu government, a miss.
    The wind industry is miffed over the poor priority accorded to it in the State, which incidentally has the highest installed wind power capacity in the country—7,200 MW—about 40 per cent of India’s.
    The state-owned electricity distribution utility, Tangedco, is often not buying power from the windmills, either because of the absence of transmission lines to evacuate the power or due to reasons of economics.
    Due to this ‘back-down’, wind power producers in the State lost a huge amount of generation last year—2.5 billion units according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and 4.4 billion units going by the data provided by the Tamil Nadu Spinning Mills Association (TASMA), many of whose members are also wind power producers.
    Both the arms of the industry—those who produce the wind mills and those who buy the wind mills from them to generate electricity—are up in arms.
    Representing the latter, TASMA has argued that both the federal and state electricity grid codes call for ‘must run status’ to the wind turbines, which means that the power the turbines produce must be purchased by the distribution utility, (since wind power is both green and cheap.)
    Asked about participation in Renergy 2014, the Chairman of the Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association, Mr Madhusudhan Khemka, vehemently denied any show of protest, but said that the industry saw no business prospects in the next 24 to 36 months in Tamil Nadu and hence was not keen on participating in the event.
    Meanwhile, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has taken up the cause of the wind industry in the State. In a letter to the state’s Chief Secretary last week, the Secretary of the Ministry has said that MNRE understands the concerns of the state—that wind power is fickle … and the unpredictability causes grid stability issues.

  • PUNE, APRIL 30:
    With American transportation and energy major GE’s upcoming Greenfield multi-modal facility near Pune due to go on stream in June, the company is eyeing doubling its share in the Indian wind energy equipment market by 2016.

    With a clear focus on the energy sector, renewable energy forms the first phase of operations of the new facility at Chakan. The plant that involves a total investment of $200 million, will begin by making larger wind machine assembly heads and converters (that are currently being imported) for wind turbines.

    The company also has a plan to develop and source sub-assembly components like gear boxes, castings and forgings amongst others for both Indian and export markets.

    Earlier this month, GE launched 1.7 MW turbine with 103 m rotor blades developed and engineered in India that will work in low speed conditions.

    “India is a big growth market and ability for local supply chain is critical,” Micaela Bulich, Vice President, global supply chain for GE’s renewable energy business, told Business Line.

    In India to meet partner suppliers to discuss opportunities for supply of critical components to domestic and export markets, Micaela hopes to tap into the innovation of Indian suppliers.

    “I am impressed with technological competitiveness of the Indian supply base to identify solutions that give greater product performance and cost effectiveness,” she said.

    The company currently has one supplier for blades and is looking at additional blade types, Bulich said, adding that the Indian market also had scope for installation and commissioning of wind energy projects.

  • Reply to

    Heading back to teens?

    by barrygeo May 6, 2014 3:48 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 14, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    The price gain Friday and Monday was impressive, and probably means my question about the teens is answered in the negative. But volume was not overwhelming, and no follow-thru. So my take: downtrend maybe played out, but the stock is stuck here for a while.

    Would feel more confident about getting back in, but I think I'll wait to see if it dips below $21.

    good luck to all

  • Reply to

    Form 4

    by tomhaly76 May 14, 2014 12:09 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 14, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Just CFO and CEO tax selling.

  • 13 May 2014 by Jianxiang Yang,

    CHINA: The Shanghai government has approved turbine installation on the 102MW Lingang offshore demonstration project.

    The Lingang offshore wind farm, which will use 17 Sinovel 6MW turbines, will be located around ten kilometers off the eastern coast of Shanghai Pudong New Area.

    The first phase will install 17 6MW turbines supplied by Sinovel. The total investment was estimated to be around CNY 1.76 billion ($285 million). The building will take about 19 months.

    Upon completion, the facility is expected to produce 275 gigawatt hours a year. The project is jointly financed by Shanghai Shenneng Renewable Investment and Huaneng Renewables. The overall plan is to build 200MW in two phases.

    The Lingang offshore wind phase 1 project is currently at the stage of preliminary preparation.

    Shanghai is home the Donghai Bridge offshore wind farm, the country's first demonstration project, near its southern coast. The first phase of 102MW was connected to the grid in June 2010. Work on the second phase of similar scale is under way and will be completed this year.

  • Reply to

    Div cut - responsible, but ...

    by barrygeo May 13, 2014 3:10 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 13, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    Last graph should read "extra $3.5 million cash per quarter".

  • ... It also poisons the credibility of management. . These are Symeon Palios' words from the February conf call, according to Seeking Alpha's transcript:

    "You can clearly see based on our existing charters and based on the charters we have aside, that the $0.15 dividend can be sustained for at least the next 18 months looking at – as I said earlier, looking at the existing charters and also at the cash available."

    Now the cash available can be used in two ways. The one is to buy something that is going to be adding to the visibility and sustainability of this $0.15, or can be set aside to support this $0.15 dividend. Either way, I think that you as an analyst and as our management of the Diana Containerships, we should try and pass this message across better, because anyone that can look at our numbers on our balance sheet and we have existing charters, can see the sustainability of this $0.15 for the next 18 months as I said earlier.

    This is something that we have not managed to pass across as a message, and I think we should use everyone to look at the numbers better and see that the $0.15 is something that – it looks sustainable."

    end quote.

    My comment: If anyone out there thinks this dividend cut is going to mean they can buy globs of ships, here's the math: Cutting from 0.15 to 0.05 saves them 10 cents per share per quarter. With 35 million shares out, that means an extra $3.5 cash per quarter. They reported a cash balance of $33 million on Mar 31. Their most recent purchase of two post-panamax vessels cost them $47 million each. In the meantime, the company has drawn and owes $98m of their $100 revolver, and they owe DSX $50m.

    Bottom line: they just ain't got the powder to do much in the way of expanding the fleet.

  • barrygeo barrygeo May 13, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    lafeet, the developer, New Jersey Fisherman's, is using XEMC, not Goldwind. Since GE has chosen to shun offshore, I guess there was no way to award any of the grants to groups that included a U.S. turbine manufacturer. The other two grants were awarded to Virginia Dominion Power using Alstom 6mw, and Seattle's Principle Power using Siemens 6mw.

    The DOE grant actually cited the New Jersey project as involving U.S. developed technology. Google: "Federal grant awards $47 million to NJ-rejected offshore wind farm project"

    "The Fishermen’s Energy project in particular, it said, will utilize U.S.-developed technology that is “less expensive to manufacture and install than traditional offshore wind foundations. Fishermen’s project will act as a laboratory for researchers to learn about offshore wind and investigate interactions between turbines,” according to the grant award"

    The foundation in question is called a "twisted jack", developed by Keystone Engineering Inc, a Louisiana company. google "Twisted Jacket" Foundation Design Selected as Part of Department of Energy Offshore Wind Project Funding

    Anyway, I don't think your complaints that AMSC/HHI was not selected are justified, because I doubt you even know whether or not HHI was a partner in any of the projects that bid for the grant. I suspect they were not, simply because HHI's 5.5mw offshore turbine was not ready for commercial at the time requests for bids were proposed. Their amsc-designed 5.5mw prototype was installed in 2013, was not schedule for commercial release until early this year, and hhi stated they would first target the Korean market, then Europe

    good luck

  • google the title of this topic for an interesting read.

  • Reply to

    Hamburg Sud comments

    by barrygeo Apr 7, 2014 9:12 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo May 12, 2014 9:54 PM Flag

    The stock was over $14 after they went public and it didn't stay there long. They went public with only something like 6 million shares, and no debt. They now have something like 34 million shares and plenty of debt. Getting back to $6 pps in the next few years would be great performance, and maybe even possible if the company's take on the future container market proves correct. Getting back to $14.75 just won't happen, imo. (but that's just my opinion)

    I do listen to management's comments, but I put more weight on the comments of others who are likely to be more objective (alphaliner, Maersk, and others)

    best of luck

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