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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

barrygeo 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2015 10:22 PM Member since: Oct 8, 2004
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  • barrygeo by barrygeo Feb 25, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Maybe today's volume means someone is finally waking up to what Inox's prospects mean for amsc. I do not to exaggerate. Inox alone will not get amsc to cash flow positive next year. But in my opinion, this customer's expected growth means higher revenue and much better backlog for amsc. Google the following sentence:

    Inox Wind Announces $750 Million Wind Energy Investment In India

    If I'm not mistaken, Inox supplies turbines for wind farm developers, but also has developed their own wind farms. I could be wrong, but I believe the article refers to planned in-house wind farms for Inox. Selected paragraphs cut and pasted:

    "One of the fast-emerging wind energy solutions providers, Inox Wind, has announced that it will invest $750 million in the state of Gujarat to set up 700 MW capacity across 3 districts...

    ... Inox Wind has also announced that it will invest about $80 million to set up a wind turbine manufacturing unit in the neighboring state of Madhya Pradesh.

    The company currently has so far supplied wind energy equipment equivalent to 15 GW and has an order pipeline of more than 1 GW...

    ...A number of companies are looking to aggressively increase their investment in the wind energy sector. The Indian government reintroduced tax incentives for project developers earlier this year and is expected to announce more incentives in the upcoming financial budget. However, ambiguity remains on the medium-term capacity addition targets....

    ...Inox Wind is expected to source at least some part of the proposed investment from an impending Initial Public Offering (IPO). ..."

  • On Mar 1, Sinovel appealed to the 7th court to quash the criminal case against them in the U.S., on the grounds they weren't properly summoned. You can listen to a recording of the argument by googling:

    USA V SINOVEL Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals ORAL ARGUMENT RECORDINGS

    .. and find the link from there.

    I don't claim to understand very much of the discussion, but at about the 6 minute 30 second mark Sinovel's lawyer made an interesting comment about the civil case ongoing in China:

    "There's already been a trial on the copyright issues. There could be a judgement at any point on that ... There has been a trial and a judgement could come any day."

  • Double bottom? My call, pre-reverse split, was that the stock would trade back over a buck. That's $10 now, and I remain confident.
    glta

  • barrygeo by barrygeo Feb 12, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    There is a brief on Reuters which most likely has to do with Sinovel's customers and suppliers in China, not with amsc:
    .................

    BRIEF-Sinovel Wind requests arbitration in seven contract dispute cases

    Feb 12 (Reuters) - Sinovel Wind Group Co Ltd
    * Says requests arbitration in seven contract dispute cases
    involving about 415 million yuan ($66.46 million)
    ......................

    If I'm not mistaken, two of Sinovel's customers have sued Sinovel claiming Sinovel hasn't fixed defective turbines, and they are refusing to pay payables to Sinovel.

    Anyway, McGahn has stated something to the effect that Sinovel is trying to get their stuff together, and he (McGahn) believes one thing Sinovel will have to do is fix their IP mess with amsc in order to do that. Maybe, but I think more likely Sinovel (and perhaps t he Chinese govt) would rather fix things in-house in China first, and they are not overly worried about making amsc (or the U.S. govt) happy.

    Just my opinion. GLTA

  • Cut and paste the following into a google search:

    Devansh Jain, Director – Inox Wind Ltd.
    Posted By: adminon: February 18, 2015In: Interviews, Wind Interviews

  • barrygeo by barrygeo Apr 19, 2015 11:00 PM Flag

    Sinovel's appeal to the Circuit Court (based on the idea they were not properly served) has generated some interested within the law field. It's not my area of expertise and I only understood it partially. Cut and paste the following into a google search:

    Are you being served?: appellate courts consider whether the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure authorize service on foreign defendants through domestic subsidiaries, but larger question looms

    To get to the meat of the matter in the Sinovel case, skip to the paragraph that begins "Seventh Circuit’s Consideration of the Sinovel Appeal"

    glta

  • Reply to

    No numbers in the Navy announcement

    by barrygeo Apr 20, 2015 9:35 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Apr 21, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    Good news was bound to come, and there will be more.

    I know my recent comments are all negative, but they've been consistent with what I've been saying: 1) Doubtful the revenue from the Navy contract will be significant enough to make a big difference in the near term, 2) Skeptical about the continued high cost of hts, and 3) Doubtful about rewards from the Sinovel lawsuit.

    But I've also been consistent about the bull argument: Mainly, revenues seem almost certain to rise YoY due to Inox's impressive growth (and assuming other revenue sources remain more or less the same). The next Inox contract is the news I'm really waiting for.

    Add to that any impetus to the stock price from navy and REG announcements, and I think the stock has been oversold. I remain long and confident at $7.70 ave.

    glta

  • Reply to

    Sinovel

    by barrygeo Feb 12, 2015 11:43 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo Feb 12, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    "It was common knowledge that LVRT was needed but there was no regulatory requirement for it at the time so Sinovel went ahead installing turbines without that feature and did not order it from amsc"

    lafeet, I agree it was common knowledge. And in that case you have to understand that it was now only common knowledge for Sinovel, but also for amsc. In other words, both Sinovel and amsc were profiting from what they knew would eventually become a big mess that would have to be fixed.

    Which is possibly one reason why the Chinese govt may feel it is not obligated to make amsc or the U.S. govt happy. No, amsc did nothing illegal, but they took advantage of faulty Chinese regulation of the wind industry. Imagine if a Chinese bank had profited from the U.S. financial crisis of a few years ago, but had done done nothing illegal, just took advantage of our system. Would you feel the U.S. govt was obligated to bail out that Chinese bank?

    good luck.

  • google the following:

    After latest quarterly loss, can AMSC come back?

    Tells it like it is and reinforces what I've been warning about REG and Navy cable: Namely, we can expect at best extremely little profitability from these products, so the hope for the company remains with wind and dvar. Selected excerpts, cut and pasted:

    "Getting into the Chinese wind market is difficult without a major partner, according to Ardour Capital Analyst JinMing Liu, who follows AMSC. While the company has made forays into the growing Indian market by providing turbine control systems to wind-turbines producer Inox Wind Ltd., AMSC has not expanded sales in that country beyond that wind provider.
    "The Indian market is at least as competitive as the Chinese market. I don't think it is going to be very easy at all to get another customer in the Indian market," Liu said. "I'm concerned."

    "AMSC is working on resilient electric grids (REG) grids in the U.S. and a system that would allow U.S. Navy ships to avoid detection by mines.
    The REG system interconnects electrical substations and hubs, increasing electrical paths and creating workarounds in case of power failures.
    The Navy deal, which could be completed by the end of March, involves a system that could cloak a ship's magnetic signal from modern mines that detect magnetic fields of ships.
    While these new markets have potential, analysts are concerned they may still take too long to begin contributing to the bottom line and help return AMSC to profitability."

  • barrygeo barrygeo Feb 27, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    bigfatty, if you want to go long in a beaten-down shipper, maybe look at one with a stronger balance sheet, like dsx. (I have no posiition there, but if I were forced to chose a dry bulker, I'd go with dsx)

    drys has a history of being highly leveraged, and they are teetering right now. They made a bad bet by diversifying into oil rigs.

    AMSC is a less risky long than drys right now. I know you find that hard to swallow because you are sort of emotionally invested in rooting for amsc to go bk. But the truth is that revenues are on the rise for amsc. Yea, cash burn will conitinue and there is bound to be more dilution, but the stock is oversold.

    You did great on your short call here from 30 or 40, but you should clear your mind and take a fresh look at things.

    good luck

  • It's about the Indian stock market in genera., but a portion of the interview is specifically about wind. Google the following:

    Bull mkt intact but see short-term correction: HDFC Sec

    Cut and pasted portion:

    Sonia: You have been very positive on this wind energy sector and we have seen that Inox Wind IPO as well come through. Would you continue to back names like Suzlon given the run up that these names have seen?

    A: One doesn’t back Suzlon because it has run up, one backs Suzlon because there is a story here and like the India story it is going to take a while to play out. Sonia: How much of it has already played out? A: The healing has just been committed. The parallels to be drawn between India and Suzlon are actually staggering. The healing has been committed, new money is on the table and now the action must begin. So, there will be some hiccups and doubts with respect to whether the action is sustainable, whether the money will come in. So, the divestment of Senvion, let us get specific here, the money which is coming in from the Dilip Shanghvi family, both of these transactions have been announced. There are legal and regulatory hurdles to be overcome, so, the money has to come in and then the business has to take off. The regulatory environment meanwhile for wind energy investment in India has dramatically changed over the last six months which is why I suspect Inox is going public and god knows they are a very good business. So, it does not take away anything from Suzlon to say that Inox is a very capable and competitive player in the space. However, there is going to be enough space – a country which was down to less than a 1000 megawatts of wind energy investments per annum could well go back to 2000-4000 megawatt, maybe 5000 megawatt for all you know. So, look at the opportunity there and these two are the big players and Suzlon can clearly rest back its market share and pump volumes that you and I would be very surprised to see.

  • For those interested in amsc's competitor for Navy degaussing, this brochure might give an idea of Advanced Conductor Technology’s status. Cut and paste the following into a google search:

    NAVY Transition Assistance Program N121-049 - Advanced Conductor Technologies LLC Superconducting Cable Connections

    IMO, they are early-stage compared to amsc. Besides degaussing, it looks like they are interested in providing power cable aboard Navy ships. I think their main selling point is the following (cut and pasted):

    “ One of the challenges that faces the technology is present-day HTS cables are difficult to install, replace, and repair. … CORC cables are easier to install and replace than current HTS cables, the connectors enable repair while under way, and installation and repair costs will decline”

    End quote. From the chart, it looks like ACT is not scheduled to deliver a complete cable until 2016

    glta

  • Reply to

    stock looks strong

    by barrygeo Apr 6, 2015 6:18 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Apr 6, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    lafeet, the 3q pr states that they will probably make the payment to Ghodawat in 4q, but I think they already took the charge in a previous quarter, based on the original arbitration ruling against amsc. In fact, the p.r. states that they will record a one-time gains in 4q in relation to the payment (I think in part because Ghodawat settled for a bit less than what the arbitrators awards)

    Cut and pasted:

    For the fourth quarter ending March 31, 2015, AMSC expects that its revenues will be in the range of $23 million to $25 million. The Company's net loss for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014 is expected to be less than $6.0 million, or $0.06 per share. Forecasted GAAP net loss in the fourth quarter includes non-recurring gains of $2.0 million related to the recent settlement with the Company's insurer pertaining to the Ghodawat matter and $1.3 million related to the settlement with Ghodawat itself that was announced today

  • Reply to

    Inox question

    by david_mikosz Mar 2, 2015 8:30 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Mar 2, 2015 10:00 PM Flag

    Not sure I understand your question. AMSC wouldn't really figure into their pre-IPO dog and pony show, in my opinion. They will order more from amsc when their existing contracts don't cover their needs for upcoming projects.

    Just my educated guess, but I figure their will be a new contract within the next three months. glta

  • NHPC awards EPC contract for development of Wind Power Project to INOX Wind

    NHPC has accorded its approval to the proposal for the award of EPC contract for the development of 50 MW Wind Power Project at Lakmana, Jaisalmer Distt in Rajasthan along with its comprehensive O&M for 10 years to INOX Wind, Noida. The board of company at its meeting held on February 03, 2015 has approved for the same.

    NHPC is an Indian Hydro Power Generation company that was incorporated with an objective to plan, promote and organize an integrated and efficient development of hydroelectric power in all aspects.

  • barrygeo barrygeo Feb 27, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    Hi bigfatty, I post bearish comments here all the time, in case you haven't noticed. In the same way that you do not delude yourself about DRYS, I don't delude myself about AMSC. And, yes, neither one is for the faint of heart. So I hope you do well in drys and all your investments.

    I post every one of my trades the day I make them on their respective msg boards. Since the fallout with Sinovel, I've traded this stock on the long side I think four or five times. Did not take a profit each time, but I'm significantly ahead despite the predominant down trend. Your comments about folks "clinging" to this stock don't apply to me.

    I appreciate that you don't need help with your investments (although you offer help to others all the time).

    It's too bad we have to bet on pps instead on specific scenarios. For instance, it's a given that amsc's revenues and backlog will rise in coming quarters due to Inox. If I could bet on that happening, instead of buying the stock, I would. I would also bet that amsc will have to dilute some more this calender year. And I would bet against you about amsc going bk this year. They won't. (dilution, yes, and maybe bad dilution. Not BK, though)

    Problem is, we have to bet on the stock price, not on specific scenarios. And a lot of the information is already built into the stock price. Good luck

  • Reply to

    Gaseous Helium

    by lafeet333 Feb 27, 2015 12:59 PM
    barrygeo barrygeo Mar 1, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    I mentioned Advanced Conductor Technology's CORC cables several months ago. It's worth watching their technology, but they are just out of the gate. They are using Superpower's hts wire. The thinner substrate and high engineering current is what they want for what they are doing, I think.

    They bagged early-stage small business research grants for Navy degaussing applications, but my assumption is they are not really mature enough to compete with amsc for actual on-ship installation. Maybe in the future. My take is that amsc is way ahead of them in degaussing.

    I could be wrong, but I believe that in the immediate future CORC cables are more likely to generate interest in high field magnets / fusion research.

    I admit to being interested in CORC cable, but like everything else in the HTS universe, I doubt they are anywhere near ready for prime time. GLTA

  • barrygeo barrygeo Mar 18, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    I'm not sure, but this may be a second project separate from the degaussing cable. A degaussing cable creates a magnetic field, but it is not an hts magnet.

  • today at 0.726 Ave = about 0.77
    glta

  • Reply to

    Added to amsc position

    by barrygeo Mar 17, 2015 9:58 AM
    barrygeo barrygeo Mar 30, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    Wish my ave were a bit lower than 7.70, but no loss of confidence here. Good luck, rip

AMSC
6.88-3.12(-31.20%)Apr 24 4:00 PMEDT