Way more shares have traded hands since August than can be accounted for by the share/warrant sale, probably due to the tax loss motivation to sell (some needed the writeoff 2013, some 2014) as well as some shorter term players who probably gave up. Frustrating regardless. Even as of today, level II quotes show more than 15,000 shares available at $1.40.
The good news is that the bottom seems to have been in December, the price is slowly moving up, and the second half of the year has multiple possible catalysts that probably deserve an entire separate post (phase II interim for HCC, potential other phase IIs starting, and maybe even interim phase II glioblastoma data!) so as long as the HCC release in June is good, you can thank the weak hands for giving up cheap shares.
Carminerestino, you're correct, and how he's managing the financial requirements is nothing short of impressive: the cost will be next to nothing due to the absorption of costs by the sponsoring universities. We get the financial upside, universities get name recognition, and the patients (hopefully) have the benefit of a drug that works. He will stretch a dollar farther than Nancy Pelosi's facelifts.
While we haven't heard about the first group of phase II patients, we know that the 5 phase 1-b patients went 7 and 8 weeks (roughly 2 mos), 5 months, 11 months and the last one is still doing well at 18 months! Q2 should reveal if the phase II patients are doing as well. Maybe the BIO presentation will provide an update to your question.
I think 14, I'm not sure how many are still on study. I would assume that we will get an update on everything given the importance of the conference and the fact that it will be webcast. Anyone else excited this year? It's about time for the rubber to meet the road. By mid-summer, I'm saying we're either $4+ if data is good, or sub-$1 if it's bad, though multiple trial indications being in place at the same time will reduce some of the risk.
I agree Hundog. Shares available are starting to dry up under $1.40. 14 patients with possibly 4 more soon in phase 2, glioblastoma starting soon, and a webcast presentation at BIO in February ought to give the updates necessary to realize that this thing is going to fly. Why would Doc entertain multiple phase 2 trials unless he was extremely confident that the drug works? Otherwise preserve cash and find a different game plan. Nope, it seems that we have the real deal.
I think hundog meant $1.50-$1.60. That would make more sense. Corect me if I'm wrong. Despite sellers best efforts, nice to see supply drying up below $1.40.
So what I hear you saying is that a company wth sub-par phase II results and no corporate partner probably has a low chance of success.
Until phase II data, the market has no basis for judging G202. So your point is relevant how?
The $1.30s got cleared out today. No shares available under $1.35, which makes the idiocy of the market sale of 3k-4k shares even more ridiculous given that bids were at $1.30. Unless you're desperate, why not put in a limit at anything between $1.30-$1.35?!!! Simply stunning.
Whitey, I know your question was for Doug, but I'll volunteer my own view for everyone's entertainment! I also have a question: who and why is so much selling occurring? Obviously it's good that people are buying, but it would be much nicer to see the price moving up because of it. Taxes are off the table now, so it's either a divorce, impatience, fear of the unknown, or sheer stupidity. Maybe a combo? I say divorce because all of the selling seems to be from 1-2 places, so it's not a bunch of people, it's one or two, and it's a large percentage of the total outstanding (1-2% so far).
The price movement from now until interim data? Who knows. But when April-June gets here, assuming positive data, I'm guessing we quickly see $3-$4, given that a company with good phase II data should be at least $150Million-$200mil easily. GNSZ is outrageously discounted for no success right now, given it's fully diluted $56 million market cap. As the year progresses, Nasdaq will dictate if we go higher, in my view. If we get listed, I'm guessing $5-$8/share, if not, maybe we hang around $3-$4 until a partnership is near. I still believe the minimum upside is $18-$20 per share. Any other guesses?
Good thoughts, people! I read through the most recent registration statement to see if any updates were provided. I found this: "as of December 9 we had 11 people enrolled in the phase II liver cancer study (Paraphrased)." This is great that momentum is finally moving toward the ultimate number to complete phase II. I suspect that the number might be 12 by now, and I think 10 was the magic number for meaningful interim data, with 17 as the goal for the total number enrolled (factors in dropouts and those unable to pass the preclinical eval.). This all but guarantees that by Q2 we'll have at least 6 months of data on every one of the 11-12 enrolled, which means "game on." No more of this half time nonsense.
I get a little excited going into the new year. I assume GNSZ has enough patients enrolled in phase II to deliver substantial interim data by mid/late Q2, which is the make or break moment we've all been waiting for. I've never seen such silliness in a stock price for a company so close to its most important moment, be it from tax loss selling (those of you who think you can play that game AMC get a better price: I'm sorry but I hope you pay $1.50 to get back in), impatient short termers, or funds selling their stock to keep the free warrant. Find me one company close to phase II data that's at a fully diluted $55 million market cap!!!! Even CUR has a tiny potential relative to GNSZs market, and they've been more dilutive. We'll see how quickly the price rebounds in 2014, and I'm glad we won't have wait through purgatory any more before knowing what we have on our hands. With phase II, additional trials and momentum picking back up, it's sure to be interesting.