One other small point that no one seems to have noticed due to its being out in left field, but when Goro bought 18% of Canamex everyone focused almost exclusively on the Nevada holdings (even the company, Canamex is totally focused there), but in a very quiet fashion Ghana has quickly become one of the largest gold mining areas in the world. It is a very small country (about the size of a midsized state in the U.S.) and it now mines about 40% as much gold as the U.S. In other words it is way more productive than Nevada and not nearly as well developed. Just if one is thinking longer term this is an interesting project for future development.
NO Bead, no intention on my part to imply any type of specific selectivity of data to reach a predetermined conclusion. MY point is that with the massive volatility of PM prices and the expansion process and then the cut back in both Cap/ex and in straight payroll, the data from before is just not going to be very relevant. I do understand that this doesn't help much. I got in slight trouble with you a while ago for stating that the company was on cruise control (you had a good point). I am standing by that statement. They are achieving on the ground oriented goals with some success (notice "some"). They do not appear (at least to me) to be going under since much of the cash flow choices were made with specific objectives in mind and they are clearly stating that they are cutting way back on spending. They are not making costly mistakes any more (at least for now, Lol) and there have even been a few small positive developments that have pleasantly surprised me. A list being the discover of the Switchback area, the number of available splays and working areas, the longer wall mining techniques being implemented, the finishing of the plant expansion, and the decrease in the number of employees while output has remained stable. Specifically I believe that Devlin did a very good and efficient job in finding the Switchback area, and I also was very pleased with the number of faces being worked which if I remember correctly was now in the mid twenties from around 10 a year ago. All the investors are in a hurry for quarterly improvements, but these guys needed to figure out what they were doing since they obviously didn't really know in the past. I liked what was said and thought that the points discussed were meaningful and showed a much more intelligent and sophisticated understanding of the mining process. Bill is pushed out to the sidelines and I like it. I think that this crew is much more professional. My point is that a bigger picture is occurring
Bead, you are parsing this way too much. There is really nothing going on one way or the other. The data you are looking at is months old. Yes, they spent a lot last year. They are now stopping expansion and cutting back. Just no real money to be made at $1200 gold and under $20 silver. If gold goes to $1500 and silver to $25 then goro makes an extra $30 million and the cash flow is fixed otherwise, just batten down the hatches and ride out the storm. I do agree with you that a little bit of cost cutting in G&A would be nice. Maybe we will see a token effort in that direction (I should be so lucky, Lol), but otherwise they are doing about what they should be doing. Cutting back and setting up for a better, sunnier day. Also all the talk about expanding the 43-101 is just plain BS. I, for one, would be very pissed off if they spent extra money doing that right now, unless of course they begin to communicate an intention to sell out in which case it might make sense. The cap/ex asset might be either some equipment or some improvements to the building infrastructures which might not be completely expensed.
Just for info, I thought Jason was at least coherent. I heard long term in his presentation and I also heard somewhat pissed off at Mexico for the tax BS, which I thought was justified. I also have my doubts that this tax will stick in its present form. My guess is that once the FDI in mining falls by a huge amount the morons in the Mexican government cut this tax back to about half of its present size and call a truce, but we will see. Anyway, I am buying under five and you are waiting and as far as I can tell you have plenty of time to decide to buy in or not. Also, I totally expected the slower ramp up so no surprise for me with that. I will even be very surprised if they average 1200 tpd during 2014 if the prices of PMs don't rise at least above $1350. Maybe by year end but ?? Anyway, glty
Well, Mr. Leworld, if nothing else you definitely are interesting and amusing. Anyway I am buying more at these 4.70 prices. Not today yet, but according to my De Mark indicators another day or two. Just small time for me a few thousand more shares, but anyway please keep posting and thank you for staying civil. glty
For me Bead, it is definitely a loss, though my average buy price is now around 16 and I expect to buy more very soon around this price of 5.12 which should lower me to around the 14 level. thanks for your insight as always.
All good questions Natasha. Hopefully, from my point of view Goro will give us some good answers over the next few months.
Bead, I don't know who this Leworld guy is, but I am agreeing with him about the importance of the financial delay. We banged back down to the 50 dma which I predicted a week ago and which is pretty normal considering the manipulated takedown of the PM prices and especially Silver which fell over a dollar or plus 5%. My take is that the lack of any type of information out of Jason already prepared the market for this specific accounting snafu. Also the fact that Goro did just come up with $2+ million to buy 18% of Canamex does eliminate some of the sting of this. Money talks so that fact that they had the cash tends to make the tardiness of this quarter's books somewhat less crucial. Also you and I have been watching these clowns for quite a while now and sometimes "familiarity breeds contempt" as the old saying goes. We are both quite fed up with the different snafus and we may very well be somewhat over sensitized to them. Also if you look at the recent price movements of Goro and the other Junior Miners and also take into account the volatility of the prices of the other miners then Goro doesn't really look all that bad. There has been some pretty aggressive whipsawing going around and Goro has at least been a little more stable than most, and to me this would be due to the lack of debt which I continue to see as a major plus in this hazardous environment. I do know that you don't agree, but thanks as always for the discussion.
Yes Bead, cesspool is probably a good word to describe this fiasco. Can I shoot them in the back? Please Daddy, please.
If interested dowmoney, I have a somewhat lengthy post discussing some of the more likely scenarios for the Russian invasion, including lines of attack and possible responses to counterattacks from the Ukranians on the other Metalmoney site. If you are interested.
Yes, Coo I agree that many Li are just regular people, but DL and his wife (who also is a member of an important family, though I forget which one at this moment) do seem to have rather extensive connections, thereby justifying my comment. Just his being able to invite Yang in shows a China family type relationship. No other obvious reason that I can see for Yang to leave Shenghua and help Llen. I don't believe there is any direct connection between DL and Li Keipeng. DL is not that highly connected, I also have some vague memory from several years ago, that the Li (Lee) branch of which DL is a part had some interactions with the Kuomantang (maybe how he got to Seattle?) which again would limit his influence, even to this day. Just my thoughts on the rain afternoon in Droughtstrikened Santa Fe. glty
DC, hoping that DL will change is probably a long shot. And there are several reasons I say this:
1) He is a Lee (Li) a member of a very old and very well respected, and very well connected family
2) If you remember it is his wife who had the very strong Guizhou family connections that allowed him some entrance in the beginning. Much like Yang is giving him some access into North China.
3) Very deep sociological and philosophical biases about position which support him in his viewpoint.
One thing that would weaken his grip might be if he started to physically weaken in some fashion. Not necessarily dying, but just a lessening of the drive to run this rather problematic company. Time is passing here and DL is quite old (70s right?). It has now been five years since they started this, can he maintain this level of drive and control for five more. Just traveling from Guizhou to Seattle is quite the trip. We will see. Oh and Hi. glty
Yes, Liberty I also do not see a 25%+ increase in production. As I stated 15%-25% would be great for 2014 and then let's see. Yes the plant is a little overbuilt but so be it, I am okay with that as I don't see it getting any cheaper to expand over time so nice to have that out of the way. Others will say that it was stupid from a financial point of view and this might be so, but since I am a proactive type of production guy having a little too much capacity is something that never bothered me. 1000 tpd with a PM output of .30 ozeq per ton gives us way more than the present output of 23,000 ozeq per quarter and would work just fine by me. It also gets us to around my 106,000 ozeq per year number and I believe the all in costs (whatever that really means, let's not start that discussion again) would be around $1,000 per ozeq so we do make some money at $1,350 and $21. I don't see Jason really pulling back on the production since they have always pushed for the dividend and the whole exploring thing leads back toward 43-101s and selling the company which seems to be something that the Reids are strongly resisting. Anyway, jmho.
Well Liberty, you have a point, but define Significant. The company has stated that they are now operating under a cost structure that is based on $1,200 gold and $19 silver for 2014. As always they may be just lying, but I suspect that they will attempt to reach 100,000+ ozeq this year with this cost structure in place while furthering their exploration, and I am hoping that they surpass this amount by around 5-6,000 ozeq. I do agree that doubling output at these prices would be counterproductive, but steady 15%+ growth seems doable and if the prices of PMs does happen to go higher then all the better. Jmho.
I don't hate base metals Bead. I like copper, it may be my favorite metal (yes, I have favorite metals). Really, very useful for all kinds of stuff and lead is pretty cool also, and they definitely need zinc to make those new fangled pennies but really, costing it in seems almost meaningless when we are looking at grades of .40 per ton. Just my humble opinion. And also you are right about the silence. It is pitiful, except that they then (out of the blue) go and buy 18% of another company. Maybe Jason is just different then his rather effusive uncle (it is uncle right?), and if so, so much the better.
Thanks Natasha, I feel protected by the shield of Athena here. And if anyone bothers to read my original post I have no expectations of a dividend payout, or any exact future payout. All I have is some ideas about what the goals of the Reids might be in investing this money in the way they did. If I am pushed into making a real guess about the mostly likely scenario, it would be that Hecla or someone else comes and buys everyone out at around .40 a share after some further drilling results come in showing good ore levels. That would mean a profit back to Goro that could be used either for further exploratory drilling or for another investment in a secondary miner. It is also possible that Canamex might just sell the Nevada property and keep the Guyana area and spend the money on development of the second property which over a 5 year period could then also be sold. I'd say the possibility of surface mining and heap leaching production anytime soon (1-2 years) is in the 20%+ range and no higher. Again, this is going to take time. Mining is slow work, even in the best of companies and times, and Goro is definitely not one of those and the timing could definitely be better so again, Buying at around 5.00 and holding for years. glta
And IP, it is now time for you to make some totally worthless insulting comment. As always, looking forward to it. TIA
The dirt needs to contain the gold/silver, etc., the concrete needs to contain the Portland Cement and be a specific PSI and not be watered, the steel needs to have specific tensile, rigidity, and brittleness characteristics, copper, etc. etc. Without these basics then there is nothing to be done. One is constantly pushing the rock uphill. The Sun-Tzu states to avoid marches through the swamps when moving your army towards battle or exhaustion will set in. Mining areas with grade levels of a gram or less per ton is just mindblowingly brutal. It makes me faint just to think about this and yet the entire industry is moving that way and gold and silver languish at depressed levels. At a gram per ton one has to fill up a thirty yard dump just to get one ozeq of gold/silver and then move it, work it through the mill, concentrate it, etc. etc. etc. What??? And people think that this process is going to be profitable at $1,200 per oz?? Not a business plan I want to buy into. Goro is discussing 7+ grams per ton and 2 grams per ton at Canamex for surface mining, heap leaching. Okay I can see that. So unless the entire gold/silver industry is just going to disappear like Horse buggy whips we have a conundrum here. buy into the industry at historically very depressed levels and specifically buy higher graded producers, despite their shortcoming, or sit on the sidelines and wait and believe that the military might of the U.S. will continue to force the rest of the world to accept our dollars as though they were backed by gold, because that is what is really occurring with a minor price discount for the lack of gold backing. I believe that the discount will grow much larger and that this will occur within a current time period (5 years or less, though at most 10 years). Leading up to that point I see higher grade producers becoming very desirable whether as self contained companies or as buy out targets. As always, Jmho and glta
And yes Bead, I did look at the grade levels and width of the samples, etc. My gut tells me that with all kinds of adjustments for other areas, and averaging, etc. etc. etc. that this vein should get us somewhere near the .40 ozeq per ton levels we are hoping for. Again, these results should get us "near", notice I didn't say "at" or "above". Is this area worth pursuing, the answer is a resounding yes, but this will take time, money, and perseverance. This is exactly why I am in long term here. Other companies seem to be lucky if they can find areas with a return of 3-4 grams per ton. Here we are discussing .40 oz or less so let's just say .25 oz eq per ton. that is still 7.5-8 grams per ton and this doesn't include the base metals which I agree are overrated (if you have to count your Lead when mining gold then ???, Lol, give me a break, Here let me give you an example--- Throw one gold coin (oz) on a table and thousands of pennies and dive for whichever pile you want. No brainer here. Lol). Wheelbarrows of pennies just don't cut it.) But still, when analyzing Goro we are constantly bombarded with grade levels that are easily twice those that most others show (Colussus in Brazil anyone?? and we all saw how that worked out, bankrupt) and Goro does seem to continue to at least marginally perform. Now they may very well be just lying to us. 20% chance of just lying. Yes, I said that. But if they are not completely lying, then as others continue to struggle to find deposits less than a third as good we will slowly gain value. And BTW, the drill results from Canamex are less robust, but very similar. They seem to have bought into another higher grade deposit. You and I differ on this point and I believe it is because I have more painfully hands on experience. You can't make a sow's ear into a silk purse. Yes, how trite, but when working with real materials dirt, concrete, steel, etc. etc. etc. the quality of the material is incredibly crucial.