The drill results that came out today of a new infill vein slightly to the northeast of Arista is an example of what I am describing.. Asset development on the cheap while there is some time waiting for higher prices. LaArista is still open for development in all directions and depth at this time so balancing infill drilling with further Switchback and Alta Garcia preliminary drilling slowly moves the company forward. As always, we will see.
With the intent of explaining a bit further since I am going to assume that you are real and not another BS artist, Goro sort of blew through the original exploration and drilling process. Mostly because Bill seems to be bi-polar, but we will leave that for another discussion (Lol). But whatever the reason a lot of effort was directed towards getting some cash flow going, not borrowing more money and getting infrastructure in place. This was accomplished though many mistakes and snafus were made. In the process many rich smaller veins, base metal lodes, etc. were passed over. What I see happening and this seems to be what Jason is saying, is that it is now time for two processes to occur while this period of very low PM prices exists.
1) Clean up some of the areas passed during earlier chaotic development. Sometimes the warehouse floor and shelving just has to be sweep and cleaned, even if it means a slow down in output.
2) Further asset and infrastructure and bureaucratic progress so that when PM prices finally rally Goro will be ready to take full advantage.
Neither of these goals are in any way related to the points you are discussing about profits for the next quarter. I've been watching Goro for many years now and expect to continue to do so, unless of course they totally blow what they are attempting. We will see and as always, glty
Don't get your tit in the wringer and comparing me to IP is about the funniest thing I've heard this month so thanks for that, especially since it has to really #$%$ of IP even though that wasn't your intent.. You are not considering the lost time and expense that is being directed towards developing Switchback. There are going to be several long tunnels with almost no ore that are going to be dug at around the 14th level, etc. The dead dirt will completely change the grading numbers so really it is mostly within the control of Goro what those numbers will be since they can increase or decrease where they direct their drilling efforts in order to massage those numbers and that is exactly what they have stated that they intend to do. Therefore counting on some type of increase in ore grades, against managements stated goals is shortsighted and shows a lack of understanding about what it is that Jason and Goro are trying to achieve.
This stock and company isn't about next quarter or even year's earnings; it is about a twenty year plan to develop into a mid sized precious metals mining company. This process will take asset development, acquisitions, infrastructure investment, possible joint ventures, cash flow management, etc. anyway, glty
Oilly, you don't know that net income will be higher in 2015 than in 2014. Much depends on price of PMs and so far they have not been encouraging, therefore I wouldn't be especially optimistic that anything will change during 2015. I would consider just staying stable pretty good for this year. Any more seems too optimistic and Lol, I am long. Anyway, pumping really doesn't change anything, but glty anyway.
Natasha, I grow weary of this discussion about trivia, but since I do know how long you've been here I'll respond. I agree that Jason is not without sin, but I guess considering the difficulties involved in the present situation and his relative inexperience I'm just willingly to cut him more slack than you are. I also see very significant improvement in his attitude and capabilities while most of you seem very set on re-living past mistakes. Just a difference in emphasis. As always, glta
all things considered. People who take those kind of risks (repeatedly I might add) are known to be sort of nutsy so expecting Bill to maintain the same standards as someone like Jack Welch was never really to be expected. I am even pretty brave and entrepreneurial but going out into the middle of southern Mexico on the side of a mountain and deciding to just dig some holes cause "we're gonna find gold/silver!!" takes a different type of viewpoint, which yes, does sometimes cross lines that stop others.
Again, I see Jason, doing exactly what we hoped in removing the crazy father and growing into the position and picking at tiny scabs while he is in the middle of a major fire fight just seems less than productive to me. As always, glty
Ok, but I respectfully disagree. I in no way see this transaction as material, again I understand the thinking from a protecting assets point of view, Jason is desperately continuing to pay a dividend which to me at least is close to untenable in this pricing environment. He has stopped with pretty much all of the mouthing off and even has stopped stuttering when discussing this company and even seems to have some idea of what he is talking about, which as we both know was much less true a couple of years ago. This transaction is equal to about .05 in the price of silver at most and with the dore, switchback, PM pricing, water/Co2 problems, etc. I would be furious if they wasted their time even bothering with this trivia. Sorry, I see this entire conversation as equivalent to discussing what type of company cars they buy. Completely meaningless and in no way representative of any cronyism, self dealing, etc. In fact I see just the opposite. I see Jason establishing himself, attempting to do the right thing and even doing so regularly, all the while reining in Bill and pushing him out of the way without tearing the company or family to shreds. Quite the tightrope.
And then in the end I also disagree at least partially about this labeling of Bill as some type of demon/devil. I do agree that some of his actions were quite questionable and if he was still in charge I would have a different opinion about the company and I believe that you remember that I was unhappy about his behavior at the time it occurred so these #$%$ now charging me with blind acceptance of Bill were not around when I was ranting viciously about the abuses that were occurring and specifically the operation shortfalls. But having said this one also has to give credit where due. Bill and Dave sold 50 million shares at $1.00/share and now have returned $102 million dollars and have a profitable operation with about $160 million in market value, and a reasonable future (next page)
YOu are all discussing a building in Colorado Springs (Colorado Springs!!), even people from Denver look down on Colorado Spring. Have any of you even been to Colorado Springs. Five Ice Skating rinks and the Broadmoor Center and a bunch of clean, mostly military and middle class conservative neighborhoods. Some libraries, people still read there, nice kid's parks, absolutely nothing with the least bit of cache (nothing, just the idea is foreign). Jets flying overhead (military, all day long. I thought of selling my over priced house in Santa Fe and moving there with the profits. I like the place, but then I've never been mistaken for anyone who counts or gives a d-mn. You all should just get a life. Lol continuously.
Silver has fallen from close to $50 to right now slightly under $17 (and this is after a rally)and the dirt that inhabits this board is finding fault, while the company puts up better than the good fight, despite huge odds against them. Such a stench surrounding these biased comments of IP daily, etc. makes it obvious that they do so as it is their job to do so and he and others are being paid to continue this circus. Again, it is below you to kick this horse while it is down. bye to all
Just one other point, Bill is really pretty much gone and however little bit he still is involved will soon be eliminated. Considering that there was no company or mine when he started and that there is a now a profitable enterprise (even in a horrendous pricing environment) some credit must be given. Is Bill trustworthy??, probably less rather than more, but again everyone is discussing #$%$ from years ago. Are we claiming that Jason is some sort of Manchurian Candidate, willing to destroy everything he personally believes on the utterance of a keyword. The implied character assassination occurring on this board is unforgivable and Bead you should be ashamed of cursing the son with the sins of the father. I believed better of you. If people want to find fault with "Present management" I will be happy to respond, but this BS is just demeaning to all concerned and deserves absolutely no respect or answer.
Something that might affect Goro is the new war in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia taking on Yemen (Really Iranian groups within Yemen) which is causing oil to immediately jump which might lead to extra costs for Goro or might lead to a PM pricing rally that correlates with oil which might lead to more profits, or might lead to Obama and the Neo-cons going nutsy and deciding to finally take on the #$%$s in Iran which leads to a huge Middle eastern problem as most of the new oil to be found in in either #$%$ or Russian hands. The old oil is in Sunni hands, but with the loss of Southern Iraq to the Iranis and northern Iraq oil to the Kurds (both #$%$ controlled areas) the only really concentrations of Sunni oil are Kuwait and Saudi both of whose oil fields are aging. WE also have the Qatar gas, but without the pipeline to Europe through Syria most of this gas will have to go to either India or China depending on future pipeline development. So many questions and so few answers and we are worrying about a cardbox with some copy machines.
And if the oil from the Middle East goes to China do we close the straits of Malacca with our navy bringing on a Southeast Asia war with Singapore in the balance much like what occurred in 1940. And if so do the Australians really decide to fight with us this time even though we are completely in the wrong and they now have a huge immigrant Chinese population in their country and surrounding areas. Yes, let's worry about the Headquarters, straight sarcasm. Lol
Just Blows my mind. bye all
Bead, there is nothing here. Property values in Colorado Springs are probably up a tiny bit, but there has really not been any significant rebound and whether the company could have gotten more and still maintained the office is a meaningless and unanswerable question. Who, how much, when, how??
As far as moving this to the Trust rather than in the company, remember that business owners do stuff like this all the time. I myself have done it so as to protect assets in the case of some type of unexpected downturn in the company business. Next we will be questioning the use of company vehicles.
Probably a bunch of the depreciation profit had been used up and so the transfer starts the clock running again for some accelerated depreciation.
The only negative that I see with this that is at all significant is that management obviously has some small worries that the asset in question might need protecting, with the implication being that Goro itself is at financial risk. Obviously that is something that should be watched closely with the very depressed pricing, but so far I do not see bankruptcy looming nearby. As always, Jmho.
BTW, I am not going to be drawn into any tiresome discussions about meaningless trivia about the Headquarters. For years now we've been hearing about it and in the end of the story the headquarters cost about the same as a drilling machine (one not several, this is a real company with real equipment, some frame and sheetrock walled buildings are not significant, what is significant is the price of Silver). Get a clue, separate the wheat from the chaff.
NO, that is not true. David definitely has retired and moved on with around $10million though I believe he still holds a few million shares, and the family in total also cashed out part of their holdings, and I must agree that they did this in a manner that was less than totally supportive of shareholders values.
But using the term "exit" when the Reids still own around 17 million shares (?? open to a correction, I don't keep track of the exact number) and when Jason and Bill are still seriously involved in running the company seems to be overstating the case by a significant amount.
Again, nothing interesting being said, with the same mis-analysis being presented as fact so I'll be back when some further results come out.
Like watching paint dry, while standing in the rain. Lol and gl
Natasha, It takes only 18 years to get back investment at 4% not 25, do the math please, you are embarrassing yourself and those numbers especially do demonstrate that the company is really doing rather okay considering the market conditions. Management has made huge investments in the infrastructure of the plant which is crucial when considering the cash issue, the grades when accounting for the extra digging being done on expanding toward the Switchback location which is 500 yards away (and worthless dirt) and the increase in base metal and especially zinc production balances out the rather minor fall off in grades and has been specifically stated by management as one of their goals.
Now it is one of your and the shorts points that management is untrustworthy and that it is therefore not intelligent to depend on the information that they provide and after the behavior of Bill, I can understand this perspective, but if that is your premise then just stick to it as you have been doing. Picking your supporting data in a cherry picked fashion and then misrepresenting it is below you. Also BTW, the company achieved the numbers that you stated in a price environment where silver dropped from close to $50/ oz to around $16+/- and gold from around $1900 to around $1150, with the added help that base metals also fell. Again, one can easily find fault with investing in any stock in the PM production area due to this depressed pricing environment, but specifically pointing to Goro's present results as some sort of failure is just disingenuous at best. They are staying out of debt and profitable with infrastructure and mine area development continuing while many others are either closing facilities, going under, or borrowing to continue operations. Could they be labeled only a slightly cleaner shirt in a very dirty laundry?, Absolutely!, still they are that and denying this reality makes this board useless. BTW, glta Lol
Juan Flores and his incompetence, the lack of planning for water and CO2 issues as depth increased, lack of management controls over different processes, etc. So much so that I was accused for quite a while of being a short in disguise. I also have never been one of the cheerleaders stating that gold/silver prices were going to the moon tomorrow.
Most of you are looking at this as an investment. Very reasonable. I am looking at it as a business, which is going through the growing pains of a smaller new business, but which I hope longer term will reward me. We will see. Oh and Bead, thanks for the good word and glty
P.S. Totally off point, I found the best rendition of "Send in the Clowns" by Sondheim, being sung by none other than Judy Dench in a 1995 revival of "A Little Night Music" by Southside Theater Company. If anyone is interested take a listen to a true talent, and no I am not Gay. Not even a little, Lol
Sam, you and IP and several others have made an endless stream of personal attacks on me part of your standard operating procedure. Yes, I sometimes loss patience and respond with less class than usual. I am human after all, but to quote Shakespeare, "The lady doth protest too much, methinks." , speaking of you and your ilk. Lol
And just while I am here I will comment on Bead's statement.
I do agree that I am analyzing Goro differently than many, but it is not as much an intuitive process as Bead presented. And obviously so far my basis for analysis has not been especially successful (irony, Lol), but having said that I would like to clarify the process one more time so that others can avoid using it and thereby avoid my mistakes (partial irony).
Where most are using financial reported results (a very reasonable process, BTW) I am looking, more closely, at some other parameters. This does not make them intuitive. The parameters I follow are more blue collar reality based than the financial docs. I believe that the financial docs are biased toward the past and I am looking for possible indicators that will tell me something about what might occur in the Goro business model over the next few years. These indicators include number of working faces, grade levels, depth and area mine shaft development, infrastructure development (without debt), drill results, development of management skill set, etc. While the improvements that I have seen in these areas have not yet affected the stock price, assuming that they never will seems short sighted to me. Also considering the market segment, Goro has not performed as badly as many, which is of little help when one is losing money, but still.
Additional, as I suspect Bead remembers, though others have not been here long enough to know, I was viciously combative about some of the earlier management abuses that occurred. The mine flooding and closing due to grading issues, (next page).
If you buy Goro again, I'll eat my hat, Lol. Makes no sense for you. Thanks for the pleasantries and yes, I'm working on my patent attorneys, so I really have something much more meaningful and important to concern me than Jason. I do look at filings BTW, just see them differently and only time will determine the truth. I like your sport analogy. Very close to how I see it. For me hanging around counts, for others not so much. Watch for my "Building wings" a couple of years from now, can't say any more until "Patent Pending", but you'll know when and if you ever see them, and as always, glty
Hey Bead, thanks for that small sign of respect, (really not sarcastic). As I am sure you remember I stated two years (or more?) ago that the company was on "cruise control" and I remember that you were less than pleased by this statement. MY whole point here is with silver at 16.41 Goro isn't going to really do anything and that credit should be given for maintaining an even keel through this storm. I do completely understand why someone would not invest here, and even mostly agree, but that doesn't make this the stupidest buy since the stone ages. Especially at 3.50.
Since I personally have run companies through incredibly bad market conditions where staying open every day was a major victory. Side note: How about losing the entire clientele of the company due to their disappearing due to market conditions (no fault of ours) and having to replace the entire clientele every year with new clientele in order to just maintain steady revenues. That was a difficult couple of years.
I personally see Goro in a similar situation. Just time to grind it out and wait and from this point of view they are doing Ok. Not great or anything, but better than many. Also the problem with some of the quantitative measures during this process is that it is often very difficult to make advantageous moves, since the cash and risk problems are so great.
Goro over the last couple of years has been steady in terms of real tonnage and output while extending the ramped areas, number of faces, mill capabilities, explored areas, etc. And management has behaved at least decently during this time. There is no money to be made at 16.41 silver. Whether output is 80,000 or 180,000. Not really. Yes, you can spreadsheet a scenario with higher profits but that is just paper. In real life pushing production higher with no real profit edge just complicates the situation.
Also just a BTW, someone has been accumulating at these prices. Check the CMF chart. glta
The final ozeq is very much dependent on the gold/silver ratio which is outside of the control of Jason or anyone else. When the ratio is over 70 and you produce two times as much silver as gold then the larger ratio number is going to very seriously affect the final stated number. This price ratio is outside of the control of the company. If one restates the numbers using a ratio of 42/1 (yes, and if cows could fly) then the output approaches 30,000 ozeq. In other words the gross production coming out of the mine in terms of dirt, ore grades, etc. has really not changed at all, even with the decreases in payroll. Now if the ratio had stayed around the 50/1 number then yes, you would have a good point that they misinformed about the production situation, but considering the collapse in Silver prices I am perfectly satisfied that production is holding steady. Really, I do expect better from you, you do have the math skills.
As I've been stating for over a year (close to two years now), Nothing is changing other than a slow expansion of mining areas while the company holds on through this time of severe pricing pressures. Why that rather conservative and measured analysis inspires such overworked responses is beyond me. You all should find something more interesting to do with your time. and as always, glta