You are joking, right?? This is what you post after a couple of weeks of silence. Do you really consider this newsworthy research? I hope not. anyway, glty
Well, maybe after ANV goes bankrupt Bill can just show up with $1 million and just buy 50% of the place (just kidding). As you know Bead, I am nothing if not patient (and maybe a bit stupid) so I hear you loud and clear. Too much risk. That is why I don't own any. Just wondering if you saw it the same. If I see a move in PM prices we'll talk again. For now I am just going to sit stupidly (funny how that word just keeps coming up) on my debt free Goro position and hope the Keystone Cops can continue what they began in the recent quarter. Thanks as always and glty
I did see the debt. Wow, what I really think is that the strains in the Precious Metal Business are just so extreme that there is no telling. This reminds me of the crash in the Louisiana and Texas gulf oil patch in 1984 when the Saudis dropped the price of a barrel of oil to $6.00 (yes six dollars for a barrel) and then held the price at around $8.00 for a while. This led to the Southwest S&L Banking crisis if anyone can remember that far back. Keating and others went down and all kinds of #$%$ happened on the ground, but one thing that really stood out for me, and that I will always remember is that the rig count in the Gulf dropped from around 1,000 to I believe around 80. They couldn't give the rigs away and what I remember is that even very conservative companies with debt loads in the 10% or even less range suddenly went bankrupt. Even with no debt companies went bankrupt because they owned all these rigs (which easily cost 10's of millions of dollars) and suddenly they were not only worthless, but were even a liability.
This may sound nuts, but if one owns 20 rigs worth let's just say $100 million in replacement costs (and in good working condition), but you can't rent it out for any amount of money so there is absolutely no cash flow coming in (yes, Bead, your favorite parameter, Lol, see someone is listening) these rigs have to be at least stored if not maintained. Where does one just put 20 seaworthy giant rig drilling platforms (kind of like the airplane junkyards in the middle of the deserts). It costs to move them, etc. etc. They were just completely abandoned and the companies which were $100's of Millions of revenue in size just disappeared over a three month period.
I mean stuff like traffic counts on busy city streets, sales in cities, entire states just collapsed. This PM market is starting to remind me of that . If oil can do it why not gold??
Bead, I sure hope that you are keeping an eye on ANV. Do you have any thoughts about their debt issues and whether they will be able to continue without major disruptions? ANV even more than Goro, EXK, etc. seems to be very beaten down. The level of value that I am seeing with ANV seems extreme with a price of 3.07 and 100 million shares out and sales for 2014 of probably around $400 million that is a sales to book ratio of less than one to one. Do you have any real thoughts about why the massive share price destruction is occurring? TIA
Also, I have been right a lot about the specifics of the mining operations and the problems to be encountered and also I have been rather vehement in my disdain for the operational actions of Bill, etc. which Bead will confirm, so your inaccurate comments about my statements are again disproved. Even this last report was pretty much what I expected. To my mind Goro is a developing miner with a beaten down price and some future promise. NO debt helps, but low PM prices hurt so this remains a legitimate, but risky contrarian play. How you can twist these comments into some odd, twisted, reality is really beyond me, but as always, do your worst. Bye for another month or so. Have fun calling me names. Very adolescent of you, but so be it.
OK IP, good luck to you, break a leg. It still seems sort of obsessive to me especially since most of what you accuse me of has nothing to do with me, but again, do what you like. And you are on ignore, and whether I intermittently choose to take a look see at what mean stuff you are saying about me seems to be my choice and not really your concern, but again, your obsession seems to know no bounds. Very odd, well bye until next time, just remember those dogs. Lol
IP daily, you sure do spend a lot of time talking about me, especially since I never say any of the things that you claim I say or beliefs that you claim I have. I find this long distance worship very odd and slightly threatening. Please do not come near my house and begin genuflecting, kowtowing or exhibiting any other type of odd behavior. Thanks in advance. I would be very uncomfortable setting the dogs on you.
Was that for me? Sis?? I am about as far from a sis as one can get. Even the gay men ignore me, Lol. And just a btw, I never have denied the possibility that Goro could be bought out. Especially with the recent strong hands buying the shares of Hoch. It just seems unlikely to me at least until some others are bought first, but who's to know. Anyway the secret formula quote put a laugh on my tongue. thanks for that.
"Secret Formula" Leworld, I like that. Lol Well that at least puts it all in perspective and thanks for the heads up. Can I use that sometimes? Please, prettty please. sorry just too funny to leave alone. glty
Bead, Your least comment here puts it all in a nutshell. The difficulty in predicting future cash flow is what originally inspired the comments made. The company is planning for gold-1200 and silver - 19. At those prices the dividend will not be raised. As I have been stating Jason is toning down the expectations almost as much as Bill inflated them. Since the price of gold silver will definitely affect production levels that also is left in doubt. UNtil we get some clarity on pricing the continuing statements, justifiably, coming out of the company are going to be very conservative. There is nothing here being telegraphed about anything we already do not know, but Jmho.
Bead, heartfelt thank you. I know that I will never have a more intelligent, legitimate, or insightful critic than you. As they say, even the blind squirrel sometimes get the nut. Please keep doubting and I will keep trying to see what I see. and as always, glty
I am also using Price to sales as one of my major parameters. I guess that is why I am still here. Also no debt. Otherwise Bead is completely correct.
Bead, If you remember I was livid for months about the mine flooding, misdirectional drilling, etc. Even to the point of being called a short or troll. I wouldn't give Bill a lemonade stand to run. But, I do disagree with you about Jason, Jesus and Devlin. Also, just BTw, I don't know Greg from Adam, so he doesn't concern me. so far you have been absolutely right and I have been a courteous, but moronic jerk. I have looked at the alternative miners that you mention and I have been less impressed by them then you seem to be and the price movements in the end have all sucked, so what is it about some others that is so much better, if we for the moment put Bill on the side? If you wish I am listening and as always, glty.
and PS, watch for my "Sun Wings" but I'm definitely going to need money to really commercialize these things. Lol and Vaya con Dios.
And Kyle, there is no book value because they expensed the entire capital structure by producing before they were a production company. Therefore there is no book value which means there are no future depreciation and amortization charges coming on in the future and it means that this company is being punished for taking a more conservative accounting path than most. The irony is just overwhelming on this point.
What this company should really be valued on in my opinion is sales since there are almost no good guidelines left to value junior mining companies in this sector. Profitability is going to be an exercise in futility, and book value when downsizing means almost nothing except how much stuff you are going to throw away. At least production output and sales is some type of real measure of day to day activity, and even this is being held down by the lack of pricing room, but since there is nothing else sales show something and Goro has $130 million which if given a 3 times sales value which would be reasonable in a normal sector is close to $400 million which is the high $7 range. Is this too rich? Very likely but I see no one else even beginning to analyze any type of valuations based on real cash flows, so for now I continue to slowly acquire. If we get down to $1- or $2 I might accelerate my buying but so far very slow and steady and glta. Yes, IP it is now your turn to say something incredibly juvenile and offensive, though why you bother is beyond me.
Pb, I've watched all this and I really am fine with most of it, but your post is just BS. On what basis is gold production suddenly so much more valuable than silver production, and how with sales of $130 million annual is a capitalization of under $200 million just so over valued. Not even considering the mill, mine upgrades, etc. And also not even considering that they have a solid three years of reserves at 8+ grams per ton. I very much understand Bead's absolutely refusal to move beyond Bill's nefarious deeds and I consider this very smart, but your BS jumping on the end of thread to make totally unsubstantiated comments is just too annoying to ignore. If you would like to make some type of real analysis, I can read, otherwise to ignore you go. TIA
Sam, was that directed at me?? I have as you say "Manned up to my loss" many times. Repeated and accurately. therefore you are now just being disingenuous, insulting and rude so go screw yourself and you are on ignore. You and IP are probably sucking each other off every second day anyway. God, more jerks and trash in the world than ever before. Thank god, I've left it behind. bye.
Pb, I absolutely agree. As far as stated the management has planned for 19 silver and 1200 gold. and has already cut back on employees and further Cap/ex. Whether they do enough remains to be seen but they are definitely making the right noises though that maybe be worth less than it seems with this management team, but then again as you stated managements can adjust. We will see and glty
The company has been at these levels for nine months already. What makes today so special in your eye. As long as silver is at 19 and gold under 1300 Goro will be under or around $5.00. Maybe over time it might go up a little but don't count on it. So why do you believe that this must force the management to sell now rather than wait for one, two or even more years?