Surf, once again, you are using NUE's recent loss on DRI to make a statement that it will always be such. IMO you are overlooking the reasons behind the loss - namely start-up issues, storage building roof collapse and delays. Those should not be ongoing issues for a company as well run as NUE.
unless something has changed recently, Tilden is 100% owned by CLF. If you have info to the contrary, please post it, thx
going the other direction. Said this a long time ago as have some others - got to have a capitulation before the direction changes and causes move to long positions outside retail. Retail does not run the sp at CLF. Let's see what EOD brings for vol & sp.
the co is in better financial shape to move forward IMO. That said, sp is at the mercy of whatever WS seems to have in store for it.
a good theory, except - the environment at the time of Thompson asset purchase dictated expansion to keep the big 3 at bay, especially RIO with IOC. Had I/O stayed near $150+/ton, (as everyone at the time forecast) this subject would be moot.
You don't just stop operating a coal mine in this country - If you look into the costs and EPA regulations associated with suspending operation of a coal mine in the USA, you will understand why coal operators will continue to operate even while losing money
the bad part about this is that it becomes so easy for the short block to control. As seen in the past ER's, any run on good news gets capped and sold down within a day or two. I, for one do not believe there will be a "short squeeze" of any magnitude, hope I'm wrong.
that's one possibility, looking at op ex across the board on the steels and clf certainly supports the mantra of 95% of ops expire worthless. Agree w/Bill, the op play is in puts for now, but even that is dicey with the loss of volatility. Loss of vol means the short block can now control the price movement with probably less than 2-3 mil shares a day
heading before earnings. Vol seems to be drying up and now holding under $5 sp. That's not a good combination. IMO we're losing the day traders as the daily range keeps shrinking and no longer offers the returns it once did. Some would argue that's a good thing, The walk down has certainly been steady.
would be perfectly happy if no steel was made in the USA (it's such a dirty environmental process) But hey, we can now retrain those displaced workers that will come from TPA for a better future with TAA.
Shorts? this brings up the question that has lingered in the back of my mind since the board change, and while I keep dismissing it, it still keeps coming back the lower the sp goes. What if this is all a charade for CLF to get taken private at the cheapest price possible? IMO, CLF is in much better shape than 1 year ago, yet for a number of reasons the sp keeps dropping. My biggest fear is not that CLF won't survive, its that CLF gets maneuvered into getting taken private at the expense of all the small shareholders. USIO could be quite lucrative.
IOC is not going to sell their lucrative railroad, they know the strategic value of it, to themselves and to anyone else developing I/O in that region. I do agree with your analysis of CLF as an operator of BL however.
sad part is, that there are a number of these kinds of people in gov't agencies as well, that are in charge of making policy decisions that affect the rest of us.
hmm, you might want to go back a bit further and check the sp, back to before all the expansion and debt - because that will be the size of CLF again after they get rid of all but the core assets. Only diff will be they will still have a good chunk of debt from the expansion left to pay off. IMO, that is what the short thesis is on CLF
and how much of that will CLF actually ever see?