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Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Message Board

bas32060 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 28, 2014 11:48 PM Member since: Aug 27, 2001
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  • Reply to

    riddle

    by bas32060 Sep 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Oct 28, 2014 11:48 PM Flag

    well the short interest peaked at end of Q3 and is on its way back down...Funny the games these traders play but I suspect the stock keeps moving higher as the shorts continue to close their positions and the news regarding HLX services reflect greater efficiency gains vs. alternative Well ops services... I stick by my $30-31 target by xmas... by the way, ebitda for '15 should reach 450mm...Multiple to this should get beyond 6.5 since they continue to grow into '19... 6.5 x 450mm is fair value for '15...7x 535mm is fair value for '16...keep buying.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Returning money to shareholders

    by skievp1 Oct 21, 2014 1:39 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Oct 23, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    I believe we are watching HLX change the correlation as they mature. Y'day afternoon was a weak attempt to sell it down due to Macro as you point out. I bought more at 24.27 after the stock had moved into 25.50 territory that morning. I still believe as we go down the road, the stock will keep working towards my $30 price in short order. will be interested to see the short interest numbers from Oct. 15th.... It's going to be very exciting next year after the Q5000 starts working for BP...

  • Reply to

    riddle

    by bas32060 Sep 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Oct 21, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I'll add one more thing, Replacement cost of assets in service in my book is $22...They are getting ZERO credit for the future. $30 would be the wrong price to put on a takeout...I'm in the camp around $42-44 or 2x replacement cost...which is different from Book value as you know...there are traders and there are investors. I believe an aggressive return of capital is in store within 18 mos if the company is still independent...I like to compare HLX to a biotech that gets FDA approval for a blockbuster drug... The end result is a merger with a more diverse company...Until then we just keep driving annually down the road at about a 20% valuation growth clip...but have to live with the bumps along the way...one never knows when a hostile suitor knocks........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    riddle

    by bas32060 Sep 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Oct 21, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    you are absolutely right that this stock trades poorly. Remember they are basically a new company with a tarnished legacy...When you continue to report conservatively, you are rebuilding your reputation for reliability and the ONLY cost as I see it is time... Yes the stock has gapped up on the open and is trying to fill the gap as we speak but I suspect the short selling that drove it down was driven simply by the macro of OIl prices and weakness in rig rates... Both of these pillars for the shorts are non-starters in my book and although the short interest is only 5.5mm shares, I believe in the first 2 weeks of Oct the short interest went up further.... With EPS over $2 THIS year and my expectation of $2.50 for next year, the future continues to be brighter than most realize...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    riddle

    by bas32060 Sep 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Oct 20, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    How bout that short interest!! in the last 60 days leading up to Oct 1st report, more than DOUBLED... I would bet the shorts arein for significantly more pain as the stock has held $21...($28-21 is still a breakdown)... With the latest earnings report showing nice leverage to the business HLX does, I see this stock quickly recovering and in fact moving aggressively towards my $31 yr end target. EPS, EBITDA all showing solid improvement and Margin improvement says even more that this story is continuing to mature/develop. I still believe we see $30 b4 xmas...Over $2 in eps for '14 tells me $2.50 minimum for '15...12x eps? I don't think so...ebitda from company was 350mm,moved to 360mm and now 390mm? they are still too conservative...I think the street is going to wake up now......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bas32060 bas32060 Oct 13, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    short interest has spiked again to over 5% of float...With earnings upcoming and the sector beaten up, I can believe a large institution is looking at this stock and saying it's not only too cheap but it could very well be a strategic buyer too....DO,ESV,NE come to mind.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    riddle

    by bas32060 Sep 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Sep 30, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    Short interest has grown to 4.6mm shares up another 1mm in the last 2 weeks! Outside of today's volume being a little more than normal, the last few weeks volume has been fairly light. When ANY company announces a buyback equal to 10% of the value of the company and is still not recognized in a positive way for it, I believe opportunity is knocking. Just like HLX to have 2 very constructive and positive announcements over the past 2 months yet see its stock get punished as if a driller tells me more opportunity is just ahead. I believe the squeeze is continuing to make things worse for the short seller and if the company can show positives in the upcoming report, the stock should re-rally to the 50 day average.25.67.....200 day is 23.85...I like our chances

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought heavily this week

    by bluearcs Sep 27, 2014 11:59 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Sep 29, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Added last week as well...The stock has wiped out all gains for '14. Have you heard anything from the industry as to why the weakness persists? I recognize the "macro" story about offshore driller utilization numbers keep weakening but that seems like old news and not totally specific to HLX...As for HLX, I believe Q3 is no different than what the company said back in July but color into '15 is critical in my book. Bought this morning fyi...

  • bas32060 by bas32060 Sep 12, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    If the total shares outstanding are105.55mm per the 10Q filed in July and the number of shares in investors/insiders hands are greater than that, what would that mean? the short interest has risen by 1mm shares in the last month and is around 3.73mm.... I assume there is a small amount of retail ownership in this stock as well....Does it mean a short squeeze is starting to take hold? I believe ANY further positive announcements as well another strong quarterly report only says that the shorts are in for further trouble.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bas32060 by bas32060 Aug 19, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    HLX is a speedboat with an anchor. The sooner the anchor is removed the quicker to $33 we go... The Far East activity in drilling bodes well for the future of HLX. Would be interesting to see a Q6000 have a long term commitment to the South China Sea...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great news on Shlumberger and Cameron deal

    by skievp1 Aug 12, 2014 10:43 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Aug 12, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    I think they do get bought. NOT by SLB or this JV. Rather I think a driller because the breadth and scope of well servicing is beyond the Drillers area of expertise and the more wells that require support, the more non-rig services are required. Don't get me wrong there is a place for the drilling complex but it's not the future of margin expansion or significant growth especially given all the supply hitting the market. I believe the future is exactly where HLX is positioned and as such a driller would consider an alternative to his portfolio. Buying the market ( ie HLX) would make it very easy to do....DO is my choice given the family behind that company understands where the value is today and is headed. my timeline is less than 18 mos

  • bas32060 bas32060 Aug 8, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    I would add that insider buying as light as it was also sends a message. I have seen this stock at $40 and $180... When the deepwater proppant gets going, you'll see them be more aggressive onshore to keep cash flowing and inventory lean. They raise the dividend not because they are desperate but because they have not only cash flow but confidence in their ability to grow volumes without sacrificing margin. Unfortunately, this quarter exposed lower margin product mix and as such a stock price that backed up significantly. $45 bucks in 2 weeks... The key going forward is protecting the margins if not expanding them. If we see margin expansion, look for a recovery to $155 by year end. The new products will bring margins back to the 40+% next year. I continue to buy at these ridiculously oversold levels. But again to me, the key is margins going forward. anything over 40% suggests better mix of product sales...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

HLX
26.19-0.59(-2.20%)Oct 30 4:04 PMEDT

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