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Zoetis Inc. Message Board

bas32060 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 11:41 AM Member since: Aug 27, 2001
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  • bas32060 by bas32060 Aug 19, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    HLX is a speedboat with an anchor. The sooner the anchor is removed the quicker to $33 we go... The Far East activity in drilling bodes well for the future of HLX. Would be interesting to see a Q6000 have a long term commitment to the South China Sea...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great news on Shlumberger and Cameron deal

    by skievp1 Aug 12, 2014 10:43 AM
    bas32060 bas32060 Aug 12, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    I think they do get bought. NOT by SLB or this JV. Rather I think a driller because the breadth and scope of well servicing is beyond the Drillers area of expertise and the more wells that require support, the more non-rig services are required. Don't get me wrong there is a place for the drilling complex but it's not the future of margin expansion or significant growth especially given all the supply hitting the market. I believe the future is exactly where HLX is positioned and as such a driller would consider an alternative to his portfolio. Buying the market ( ie HLX) would make it very easy to do....DO is my choice given the family behind that company understands where the value is today and is headed. my timeline is less than 18 mos

  • bas32060 bas32060 Aug 8, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    I would add that insider buying as light as it was also sends a message. I have seen this stock at $40 and $180... When the deepwater proppant gets going, you'll see them be more aggressive onshore to keep cash flowing and inventory lean. They raise the dividend not because they are desperate but because they have not only cash flow but confidence in their ability to grow volumes without sacrificing margin. Unfortunately, this quarter exposed lower margin product mix and as such a stock price that backed up significantly. $45 bucks in 2 weeks... The key going forward is protecting the margins if not expanding them. If we see margin expansion, look for a recovery to $155 by year end. The new products will bring margins back to the 40+% next year. I continue to buy at these ridiculously oversold levels. But again to me, the key is margins going forward. anything over 40% suggests better mix of product sales...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No Excitement, Period!

    by eves_advisor Jul 29, 2014 4:11 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jul 30, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    Have you looked at the 13G institutional ownership lately? 92.5% institutions...6% insiders...leaving only 1.5mm plus the short shares as supply. another contract would be nice I totally agree and the stock should get squeezed to $30...Until then, I do not expect any major dive in the price. I would continue to buy below $26 if you can get any.....A trader as you know, I'm not. But I understand your frustration and really can appreciate the momentum trading is waning. the real issue is the etf's that are still here as well the drilling complex's continued very weak relative strength. No doubt this part is affecting HLX or the stock would be $35 by now

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Old Tricks

    by eves_advisor Jul 24, 2014 2:07 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jul 25, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    I have been right here with you the entire time and agree with your 'trading view'... I would highlight that the company has made a massive turn in its business fundamentals and this I believe you know very well. So the trading mentality is totally normal to me. Whether manipulative or not, fundamentals of the shift in business continue to solidify as you know. If you listened to this earnings call, you would've heard a more relaxed and excited representation of the future. I picked up 40k in shares as you know the first 10 days of the month because I totally agree with the light volume driving the stock down. Remember short interest went up as well.

    My point is that a poor or unreliable reputation needs time b4 it heals and if you look at the 13G filings you see a better base of value shareholders and an increasing base at that which in my opinion confirms the emerging success and ultimate belief that HLX is proving its worth and distancing itself from its past woes. Maybe the company has learned something, maybe not... But since the stock was $9 4 yrs ago to today's $27 I have no doubt the future is very bright. As for shareholders, dividends and buybacks aren't far away..if not a take out by a driller..

    Yes the stock trades poorly. Yes it feels manipulated. But it allowed me to buy 40k around 24.10-24.40... I used to say prices in the teens and now I speak in the twenties.... This stock has gone up every year you've been on this board...You know the difference in a voting machine and a weighing machine... I feel your frustration for sure but everyone INCLUDING mgmt can learn from the past.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    another buying opportunity

    by bas32060 Jul 10, 2014 3:29 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jul 15, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    Bought another 10k today at 24.08... Guilty by association(the drillers and of course the macro weakness early) is reflected in the low volume however today was a little bit better as was the interesting print below $24..

  • Reply to

    What's That Smell?

    by eves_advisor Jul 11, 2014 3:29 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jul 11, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    I still believe the drilling sector weakness pushes HLX around. Overall weak oil price too has most E&P's down as well. I think next weeks SLB and HAL eps announcements will go far in defining the new valuation range for HLX. I still think we make a new hi this year and am continuing to put my money where my mouth is. Picked up another 20k shares at 24.13 today and $24.40 y'day. I would also look at the projected interest rate picture from the FED. Given HLX pays nothing and % rates are next to nothing, ANY looming rate increase will shave valuation a little unless of course HLX begins to pay dividends in cash....2015 would be my guess,after BP contract gets going... I'll buy everyday this stock stays this weak. EPS report the 21st should be fun

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    another buying opportunity

    by bas32060 Jul 10, 2014 3:29 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jul 11, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    I'm not following. The stock has continued to climb although last year it did little for a "full"year but is poised to break out above the $27.20 high...As for selling opportunities, when a stock has both eps momentum and macro tailwinds, selling "if" the stock gets ahead of itself would be prudent...Has HLX really had more than 1 or 2 selling windows? I define a selling window as a move of greater than 30%
    Be that as it may, I believe the light volume speaks more to the "macro" than to the eps. In fact, I would bet they beat the street rather than disappoint. I also believe one holds here and is rewarded within the next 18 mos even more than we've seen in the past. I do agree with your assessment that there have been many buying signals especially around earnings...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I believe so

  • Reply to

    The bottom

    by skievp1 Jun 16, 2014 12:25 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jun 18, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    Don't sweat the boldness. Sometimes the planets line up in the order that makes us all look like successful fortunetellers...Taken this one over 5 years and it still has much more room to run. As for predictions, the longer you stay around the better your chance of success in ANY investment but especially in this case.... Knowing the company that holds my investment dollars backs up my thesis... good luck..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Holy smokes !

    by skievp1 Apr 21, 2014 6:38 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jun 11, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    If you could only contribute something meaningful to this "abstract" board your story might be believable. As I've always said, you're full of it...

  • Reply to

    Holy smokes !

    by skievp1 Apr 21, 2014 6:38 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jun 10, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    So how'd you make out over these last 60 days? I loaded up below $22.50...Haven't seen a down tick so was wondering if you did..

  • Reply to

    Drillers smokescreen

    by bas32060 Jun 4, 2014 11:07 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jun 6, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    De Nada mi amigo...Seremos muy acertados con Helix

  • Reply to

    Drillers smokescreen

    by bas32060 Jun 4, 2014 11:07 PM
    bas32060 bas32060 Jun 5, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    They are sitting on an extra 100mm cash they'll likely never use yet they are waiting until either they have another year of well intervention under their belt, (delivery of Q5000 and in the water working)...or another long term contract under their belt.. by then , they will easily be telegraphing they have more cash than they need and I suspect they'll never get to pay that dividend because someone smarter and with an appetite to make much more cash will swoop in and buy them and keep the cash for themselves...

  • With the latest announcements of Older rigs going to the graveyard (,DO's announcement today), HLX continues to struggle w/separation. As we await an announcement of another well intervention contract that insures a newbuild vessel, as well another strong earnings report , HLX is ripe for a takeout. Once they announce and update the Q5000 status as well the Q7000 status, I suspect drillers have already begun to look for other forms of revenue with which to broaden their portfolios. Why? because the efficiency of the well intervention vessel that can also drill is the future. HLX is a perfect fit for a driller looking to enter the space. Think about it, they get an undervalued pioneer w/ first class vessels under long term contract and by selling off the production facilities as well Canyon,the driller gets the well intervention division basically for nothing. Production facilities 350-450mm, Canyon for 650mm leaves all the ships in well intervention division for the buyer...I see a stock swap with $5 per share cash and no less than a 3b value in stock or $35 per share and that is still cheap. Maybe a bidding war ensues...another announced contract will only confirm HLX legitimacy and leadership.Well Intervention is re-defining drilling and also providing much needed cost discipline for the E&P sector. so much noise surrounds efficient capital use in this space already. Won't be much longer as I see it........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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