Never underestimate the power of dreams my friend. This company didn't just fall out of the sky, it was built on those dreams, and it is run with integrity.
Davy Jones project is one of many projects in the deep subsalt basin of the GOM. DJ number 1 and 2. Number 1 was a reworked well that established that massive quantities of hydrocarbons existed at this +/- 30,000 foot depth, but from a shallow water well. The diameter of that pipe made engineering challenging, but resulted in significant and beneficial revelations regarding production. DJ2 is a wider pipe and will produce massive quantities of rich readily producible gas at costs much less than fracking. Basically FCX got a deal by acquiring all of MMR, which includes Plains Exploration, and all of the GOM leases. These same leases are similar to those run by Anadarko which JB said in a conference call resulted in a 400-1 promote. The merger of MMR is really a reunion, far from speculative or a bail out, and it provides diversity and cash flow. JB's group is brilliant. Truth to me is that MMR was too small to reach into investing into major oil company territory without some capital, and not wanting to barn sale a decade of R&D and Exploration and Development to a major, brought a great deal to FCX. When this happened MMR shareholders became a miner by getting into FCX, but I can assure you that the assets of MMR and Plains will pay off for years. Liquid NG plants are being operated and built all around Louisiana, and they will need gas.
One day, soon, O&G and Copper and Gold are going to be up together, when this happens we will be very satisfied. That's my bet. Great place to buy now. JMHO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Exactly: build/partner with smelter construction, and all is restored. But there are details, and that is what it is about - financing, viability, relief from arbitrary govt. changes, and business stability - FCX knows what it is doing, Govt. wants Smelters and the jobs that come with that, but all of that take a very reliable understanding of the forces in place. FCX is an engine for the economy, and workers are being held back while the govt. makes the demands for smelter progress. From what I read, there are 3 groups that want to build smelters and all need ore commitment from FCX, financing, construction etc., to meet a self imposed govt 2017 goal to avid larger unagreed to tax increases on exports. Compromise is clearly in the wind - smelter groups, govt. and FCX have same big picture interest - just these issues take time to resolve. My bet is agreement is reached and all these details are worked out. Then off to $50 as this conglomerate grows.
I think some of these guys are not even in. Have no idea what their strategy is. Just hoping for lower and safer entry I suppose. Then they will be all in...until they are out again. Hawk, fundamentals are the safety net, right. Investing on charts is for the elves, and we know there really aren't any real elves. Shorting VLO is a fools play imho, contrary to common sense and highly risky, hence the panic while watching options go worthless. In the meantime we have to listen to this cheerleading. Its like those guys that bet football games on the over and under, or the spread, they could care less whether it is a good game. So, some here are talking sense and most giving up specious one liners.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Up .75 charging back to normal, fundamental buyers leaping in along with day traders who buy solid companies. 2Q results will knock the socks off, as that spread has been great, volume and margins will be good and guidance will be positive.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
yes hard not to get pulled into this, but I strongly agree that the economy is better, the refineries are very strong, and the business model is better than 2 years ago. And with VLO you have to consider it exports refined products, and the countries buying that do not have the dynamics to adapt to create the refined product. VLO is ahead by following the regulations and the market factors now make that strategy nearly foolproof as even changes to export rules on crude won't affect anything except to lower world prices. VLO also sell predominately in Texas and these sales are a lock. The revenues will not ever fall, only increase. Vlo is hedged in place for a great year. Don't believe that peak theory at all, its just easy to say today because the energies are off today, probably just because dollar and ukraine. Then back to the races.
That weakens your point since those numbers are long gone, by a massive difference, gained incrementally, after years of quarterly reports confirmed growth cash and profit. We are still next to 50s, and today is just a bad day for the O&G sector, one day that;s all. the sky is not falling!!!!!!!!!!!
I understand your point. But it is premised on looking at peaks over the last five years. We haven't reached a peak nor are we in the spring, so we are not in the cycle if you were to follow that indicator. You have the same interest as anyone else, I assume, to make money. The vast majority sees this stock screaming to make 60. Those unidentified institutionals deal in fundamentals and annual returns not cycles. Any decent fundamental analysis would point toward a buy or hold if you already own. Any selling would just be to balance the portfolio and others will just be balancing the other way. This stock is 80% institutionally held in the hottest sector. There will be no selling of any significance.
I'm saying today is a BUY day. all that negativism confirms my point. He's a cycle that never looses: "buy low and Sell high!"
Actually the numbers do show that VLO is still due for a seasonal peak. What you might be observing is that VLO peaks frequently in the 1st half, usually in the spring, however, we haven't reached a peak this year. We opened the year at 49.87, so haven't even peaked yet, my bet is that cyclical indicators not very reliable, but if they were, then I'll wait for the peak before I make a move with that data.
Fundamentals too good.Business model working. This is perfect entry to make quick 4$ or hold till 60. Traders and holders should be on the same page. I am a ling, but i never buy or avg down unless I see a low.
I see one now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
AH, I bot at 49.54, a little more than usual, but should have stuck to my practice of averaging down on these type of days. Makes no difference but its always nice to get some at the last trough in a cycle. I think you are right on the manipulation, but that seems less effective as the quarterly reports keep repeating success. Vlo really is a safe haven right now through 2014. jmho, but the swings are interesting. Clearly volume and buying keep this stock hopping. I think its incredible because the volatility is nowhere close to matching the steady reliability of the company.