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Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

batraa 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 26, 2015 3:30 PM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Ciao

    by dsouth7777 Jan 13, 2015 2:11 PM
    batraa batraa Jan 26, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    don't think anyone really wants this sold. they just want a more rational capital management plan.

  • Reply to

    Ciao

    by dsouth7777 Jan 13, 2015 2:11 PM
    batraa batraa Jan 21, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    do you think the stock trades up (and how much) when the old man dies?

  • Reply to

    Ciao

    by dsouth7777 Jan 13, 2015 2:11 PM
    batraa batraa Jan 21, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    lots of financials are off to begin the year.

  • Reply to

    Where is Chief?

    by dsouth7777 Dec 1, 2014 10:02 AM
    batraa batraa Jan 21, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    dsouth -those are valid questions but i don't think you would have gotten the opportunity if it wasn't for the fact that the company is shareholder unfriendly.

    the stock was absurdly cheap even after accounting for the poor management (on the shareholder perspective).

    the stock is still cheap - given the management control it should still be worth about. 75x book value. that's basically saying - management is so bad in provding returns that i want to pay below book value.

  • Reply to

    Where is Chief?

    by dsouth7777 Dec 1, 2014 10:02 AM
    batraa batraa Jan 6, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    i think one of the tradeoffs you have to accept in this stock is the random bouts of up and down moves in the stock. you can let it bother you or just deal with it and buy it when it hits your buy points. i actually welcome the moves now as it allows me to buy more.

  • Reply to

    December dividend

    by gomez1943 Dec 11, 2014 9:25 PM
    batraa batraa Dec 12, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    i think they are going to continue to drill.

    i think gs still has them at 1 dollar per year. that's too high. i think best case you get 5 cents a month. let's see.

  • they got a really nice price for shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Price manipulation at mkt. close..

    by jeanneoyoung Nov 25, 2014 4:33 PM
    batraa batraa Dec 8, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    that's wierd. not even on a quarter end or a month end. it very well could just be noise. Nice day for the stock recently though. decent volume today. i hope the company is buying shares. Good luck.

  • batraa batraa Dec 5, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    perhaps. the guy dev also hasn't posted. maybe they were teh same person? they were around the same age i thought.

    every few years a new set of pumpers but this round not that many new guys.

  • batraa by batraa Dec 4, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    has poolblue finally sold all of his shares? no posts on IV for almost 5 weeks. nothing really here as well for several months.

    that's how the pumpers leave. just cold turkey. at least DDD had the decency to say he was selling (split adjusted price of like 50 bucks, looking pretty good).

    hope this works out for you all.

  • batraa batraa Nov 14, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    this company needs to force the debt holders to restructure.

  • Reply to

    FIVN SOARS DESPITE MASSIVE LOSS

    by wellsbay Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    batraa batraa Nov 14, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    good reply - so your view is that if CC does 10mm annualized by end of 2015 that will add 30mm of value? i think it will be good if they can do it but believe mr. market is implying a higher revenue stream at that point. that's what makes a market i guess. `10mm of sales probably gets CC to be worth 30mm as you say. that i don't disagree with. Let's say 40mm (4x run rate sales). let's give the bond interest another 10mm. that gets us to 50mm of value. they have 45mm of cash right now but they will burn 20mm in the next 4 quarters. so 25mm of net cash. total value is 75mm. right now mr. market is saying this is worth 120mm.

    this is why i think mr. market is implying about 20mm of annualized sales by end of 2015. is it possible sure but that's the bet your making. (and we are assuming this company gets 4x sales which is a big assumption).

    unfortunately for some of the holders who own this much higher it doesn't really matter. let's say they rock and can do 40mm a year in sales and get a 3x multiple on this by end of 2016. that's 120mm of value. between the cash burn and bond interest we might have 20mm of cash/bond income at that point. that's 140mm of value. 50mm or so of equity value - or around 55 cents per share.

    and remember this is assuming that sales go up 12x over the next two years.

    i'd rather find another micro cap that has that type of growth profile without the huge embedded revenue increase in it.

  • batraa by batraa Nov 13, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    us patient folks have done really well here. stock getting pricey here at 27. looks like i am not going to be able to buy more sub 20...

  • Reply to

    Another Good Report

    by dsouth7777 Nov 6, 2014 1:49 PM
    batraa batraa Nov 11, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    broken record, very nice quarter. you know - it's only a matter of time until they are doing 40 dollars a share in earnings a year. Probably 2016 if i had to guess (but hopefully earlier). think about that from our sub 160 dollar purchases - 4x earnings on our cost basis.

    if they had bought back shares, wow. water under the bridge. the real thing we need is just a steady dividend. if they paid out 25% of earnings we all would be very happy.

  • Reply to

    FIVN SOARS DESPITE MASSIVE LOSS

    by wellsbay Nov 7, 2014 11:49 AM
    batraa batraa Nov 10, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    looks like fivn is trading at roughly 3x ev/sales. right now NOVC is trading at what 25x ev/sales? granted we should take out bond income from EV so this will make the numbers look slightly better. assuming 10mm of bond income remaining we are still north of 20x ev/sales.

    the longs here really need a ramp in sales fast. 2015 will be a very important year - i believe if they can get sales to 20mm a year the stock should do okay and not keep falling.

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