think you are expecting this to trade rational. i don't think so. the bear case in NWLI is simple, rates stay really low and they can't generate good returns and the son doesn't do any capital allocation.
i think all three are bad bets and so i am long.
agreed. let the idiots continue to sell and we can have the company buy back shares to put us on firmer footing also... $100mm of buyback cheap and debt paydown could lead to a $5 distribution in future years and real coverage - that would lead to a $30 stock price over time.
no dividend announcement yet. kind of strange that they are late. perhaps the board is debating how much to cut. my gut tells me $3.00 with a $50-100mm share repurchase plan. I think the stock trades off on the news initially but rallies back to positive.
anyone have other thoughts?
p.s. for long term holders a cut to 3 dollars and if they actually buy in some shares should be very positive
DSouth - what would you like them to do in terms of improving liquidity? would a share split make you happy? i know they have at least discussed this in the past from my notes. I am not sure if that makes a difference to be honest.
this is tightly held and it doesn't trade that much.
by the way lots of insurers are cheap right now.
they aren't selling their shares. i doubt they check their share price more than 1x a day during the day.
however, your point is correct and the independent directors have to be accountable. it will be interesting to see how they handle the brazil issue and other stuff in regards to pay. this is one issue i have had with them in regards to legal issues.
you should write a letter to the BOD - and also try to gather good info.
but you knew all of that when you bought NWLI - it's not like they have changed stuff on you. there is a reason it was so cheap - large shareholders grew fed up with NWLI management.
i understand the argument that kcli is below book value and pays a dividend but it was like 17x earnings or something crazy like that. it's still not super cheap for a controlled dark company. but shareholders approved it so what do i know.
agree that they should be returning capital and that's the point people should make. it's much smarter (especially when the stock was at 150-200) to buy back shares than to write low margin business with a lower ROE. but the old man only knows about growth - but the son gets it.
i have spoken to someone on the board and shared my thoughts. a letter is also a good idea to get the independent director to realize their responsbilities.
why don't you write a letter to the BOD to explain your issues with the company. and address it to the independent BOD members as they do still have a fiducary responsibilty to shareholders.
are you a day trader dsouth? look at the underlying performance of the company - that is okay in a tough environment. yes they should do more buybacks and provide a real dividend. i agree.
well, the son did take over the ceo role. that's a positive. it's sad but i think the father needs to pass before we see the son get more aggressive - but you never know. the father has got about 8-9 years to go. hopefully he is okay with the son being more aggressive on capital returns but i doubt it.