One positive will be that Sumatriptan is Teva's first product ever in an auto injector. IF it goes well could it lead to other Teva products ending up in an auto injector...
Nammuang, On May 9th when they gave Q1 2016 earnings they said Otrexup Revenues were 3.3 million, up 10% but flat Q over Q. 3.3 million per quarter equals 13.2 million per year, still a long way from 20 million which is break even.
Jan 2 Jan 2140
Feb 91 Feb 2210
Mar 403 Mar 2372
Apr 677 Apr 2662
May 1027 May 2585
June 1298 June 2876
July 1613 July 3096
Aug 1832 Aug 3024
Sept 2033 Sept 2982
Oct 2299 Oct 3055
Nov 2144 Nov 2761
Dec 2295 Dec 3244
Looking at the year over year monthly comparisons for Otrexup scripts the yearly growth seems good. From this point the company stopped disclosing numbers and most recently only gave Otrexup revenue, not scripts. They indicated Otrexup revenue for Q1 2016 is 3,310M compared to Q1 2015 of 3,004M a difference of 306,000. I divided that by $547 which I believe is the approx. cost of the script and that gives me 559 It appears that there was only about 559 more scripts sold for Otrexup in Q1 2016 compared to Q1 2015. If someone comes up with something different I am all ears but the yearly growth appears to have flattened.
You asked me to ask Jack questions that were on your mind. I told you I was not your secretary and you could call him yourself with YOUR questions. How was I to know that his answers are sometimes wrong... Personally I think that everybody should be calling him constantly with their concerns, I have him on speed dial.
Antares management has totally mislead investors regarding Otrexup. In October when I spoke to them they told me that all the changes that they put into place were REALLY starting to take effect and that all drugs were flat in August (explaining the low numbers for August). January 11th when I spoke to them Jack said they were not concerned at all about Otrexup numbers "November is always lagging" and the numbers do not show mail order. If you look at the monthly script numbers that was a total lie. At the January 14th 2016 JPM conference they said they look forward to increase scripts and they were "Confident" on profitability in the near future. On 8/10/15 during second quarter earnings they stated that Otrexup still had a large untapped market. We tap it for crying out loud, tap it !!! I am long this stock but I dont believe management based upon my notes of conversations and what they have told us during conferences and earnings reports.
Jack told me that funds dont buy ahead of news so this must mean that they already know something good is coming
You were smart. I was not so fortunate. I bought the Kool and believed that the next opportunity for a catalyst was 3-6 months away. This happened over and over as the stock price fell yet the growth potential seemed so near. I bought on the way down thinking that dollar cost averaging would help me considerably when the stock went up. The company has repeatedly touted growth potential and in every occassion there is a delay or failure. Some of this is of no fault of the company but I do blame the company for the lack of sales for the Otrexup product. When they spoke of Otrexup their sales efforts were lousy and they even stated at one conference that the product would sell itself. Their mistake was not grabbing every potential script they could, as we know one script turns into many. They were banking on EPI as it was a huge product compared to Otrexup but when EPI had a delay the stock price fell. I am hopeful that Bob Apple can somehow return my life savings to me but time will tell.
Morgan Stanley knows their stuff... the only thing better would be if they added more this week.
Something is clearly up with Teva continuing to take on such a large pre launch order despite the delay. During the last earning report it was pretty clear that an AB rating was still the goal and they were confident in getting approval. Shorts covered 2 million shares in a two week period. All this could be an indicator that something may happen sooner rather than later. I am not sure what kind of revenue we can expect to see from Sumatriptan but that revenue is a few months away or more
That's good news. Instead of risks, there are rewards. How about some rewards for me holding this stock for years...
Loko, Thanks for the info. I began to read the 10Q and got dismayed by the financials so I put it down. I should have read more but it looked a lot like the same/same. I am glad Zomacton is not dead and is now adding money to the pipeline. Ferring was intending a global launch so that should eventually boost injector sales. At least its a product we wont lose money on.
No, I like your reason. If this pattern continues then we know something good is nearing. We are always the last to know. I would like to know what happened to Zomacton ? we should be getting product revenue from that already...