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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

baxterjames120 382 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 51 minutes ago Member since: Dec 5, 2009
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  • baxterjames120 by baxterjames120 1 hour 51 minutes ago Flag

    The longer-term trend for oil looks even worse. California, which leads the U.S. and much of the world in technology and regulatory policy has set, by law, the target of reducing statewide carbon emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Achieving this goal will require that essentially all grid electricity and all surface transport be powered from renewable or nuclear sources. This will effectively remove the California market for petroleum, except possibly for aircraft and marine fuel, and petrochemicals.

    Countries with severe pollution, and countries concerned with CO2 emissions and climate change will follow California's lead because that is the only practical solution to these issues short of collapsing their economies.

  • Why oil isn't selling, even at 40% off.

    Not very long ago, the world was buying oil for $100 a barrel, and in enormous quantities, tens of millions of barrels a day. But today, selling incremental oil is rather like trying to push rope. If we think about this, it isn't hard to understand why the oil market is so inelastic.

    Basically, we really don't like having to buy oil and burn gasoline. This stuff stinks, it's sticky, dirty, ugly, carcinogenic, it tastes bad, it may even be destroying our planet. Running you car on gasoline, or running your economy on oil feels like being enslaved to oil producers, and some oil producers tend to engage in rude, anti-social behaviors that we prefer not to encourage.

    We, in this case doesn't refer to a few over the top environmentalist crazies. The vast majority of consumers feel this way to some degree. And entire nations and their Governments feel this way as well. Tax policy and vehicle regulation has, for decades, in most of the world, sought to minimize vehicle fuel consumption in the interest of the environment, local economies, national balances of payment and the like. And, these policies have worked. Oil demand today is much less than it would have been had we not made efforts to increase efficiency and minimize petroleum fuel use.

    The simple fact is that oil demand is at least as inelastic as the supply and rates of demand growth are coming in lower than predictions made some years ago. In the U.S., carmakers are working toward the 54 mpg CAFE target, twice the mileage of current offerings, which are already far more efficient than just a few years ago. In China, the government has come to realize that fuel burning cars and power plants are a threat to habitability of their cities and pressuring carmakers to supply cleaner - and in many cases - more fuel efficient cars.

    The longer-term trend for oil looks even worse. California, which leads the U.S. and much of the world in technology and regulatory policy has set, by law, the target of reducing statewide carbon emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Achieving this goal will require that essentially all grid electricity and all surface transport be powered from renewable or nuclear sources. This will effectively remove the California market for petroleum, except possibly for aircraft and marine fuel, and petrochemicals.

    Countries with severe pollution, and countries concerned with CO2 emissions and climate change will follow California's lead because that is the only practical solution to these issues short of collapsing their economies.

    All of this, the current oil price, efficiency regulations already in place, and future policy roadmaps for dealing with pollution and climate all point to an approaching peak demand for oil. The situation we face is not entirely an unanticipated one. Some years ago, a Saudi Oil Minister summed it up nicely:

    Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil - and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil. - Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani

    With the latest crash of oil prices and market turbulence, we may, in fact, be seeing the beginning of the end of the age of oil. If this change is now upon us, or is even beginning to come into our view and forward expectations, that will "change everything." Current market turbulence would seem the product of just the sort of uncertainty we would expect from a sea change like the ending of oil's dominance of the world energy business.

  • baxterjames120 baxterjames120 2 hours 11 minutes ago Flag

    oil prices will rebound and solar prices are falling.

  • baxterjames120 by baxterjames120 2 hours 37 minutes ago Flag

    Let's see what effect is has on SUNE

  • I predict we see $22 by Dec. 31. I think oil has bottomed

  • High-profile investors have gained widespread attention this year for making plans to dump investments in fossil fuels or bet on clean energy.

    The Rockefeller family announced in September that it would shed its holdings in coal and other fossil fuels. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said in June that Berkshire Hathaway, the company he heads, plans to double an existing $15 billion commitment to renewable-energy projects, including wind farms.

    Many investors are drawn to such investments both because of social aims and potential profits. Environmental factors, such as clean and renewable energy, are incorporated into the management strategies of 672 mutual funds, hedge funds and other investment funds that collectively have $2.9 trillion in assets, according to the Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment's annual report.

    The New Alternatives Fund, whose largest holdings include Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners, which operates renewable-power facilities, and NextEra Energy Partners, which owns an array of clean energy projects, is up 1% this year. The fund has $171.3 million in assets as of Nov. 30, according to Chicago-based investment-research firm Morningstar. The fund charges 1.16% in annual fees, or $116 on a $10,000 investment, as well as a sales charge of up to 4.75%. Accrued Equities, an investment firm which runs the New Alternatives Fund, says it will introduce a similar mutual fund that carries no sales fee next month.

    The Guggenheim Solar exchange-traded fund, the largest ETF that focuses on alternative energy, includes Hanergy Thin Film Power Group, a solar-energy firm, and SunEdison, a semiconductor and solar-technology company, among its largest holdings. The fund has $262 million in assets, and charges 0.7% in annual fees. The fund is down 7.4% this month and down 5.9% so far this year.

    The recent pullback across the energy sector could provide an opportunity to invest in alternative energy at a discount, says Tom Moser, a financial adviser with High Impact Investments in Marana, Ariz., who specializes in the sector.

    "We are not at the point where the big energy companies are going away," he says. "But this is a transition. If one goes out 10 years from now and looks backward, they will probably say to themselves, 'I should have seen it.'"

  • Cuba get's their oil from Venezuela. With oil prices falling and the news about U.S. relaxing Cuban sanctions, Cuba could be a big solar customer soon.

  • Germany plans to force utilities to cut CO2 emissions
    Nov 26 2014, 11:48 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
    Germany's utility lobby group BDEW says it sees no room for power plant operators to cut emissions unilaterally without fundamental reform of the power market, it said after talks with Germany's energy minister.Germany's government plans to force utilities to lower their CO2 emissions by 4.4M tons each year during 2016-20, as it struggles to meet its self-imposed target to reduce emissions by 40% by 2020 from 1990 levels.Major utilities RWE (OTCPK:RWEOY) and E.ON (OTCQX:EONGY), already struggling due to losses from their coal- and gas-fired generation fleet, are likely to be the most affected by the measure.

  • FBR Capital chooses Noble Energy (NBL +8.8%), Schlumberger (SLB +4.6%), Synergy Resources (SYRG +6%), Consol Energy (CNX +3.4%) and SunEdison (SUNE +0.7%) as its top energy and natural resources stocks for 2015.

  • baxterjames120 baxterjames120 19 hours ago Flag

    often those large quantities after the close are aggregated late posts

  • Maybe Mr. Market finally figured out the oil and solar are not competitors.

  • baxterjames120 baxterjames120 Dec 17, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    meant to say SUNE to hit $19 - TAN etc is now up 2.4% for the day.

  • About to hit $19.

  • baxterjames120 baxterjames120 Dec 17, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Only 3% of cubans own cars and they are all late 1950's U.S, cars. Relaxing trade sanctions could increase the car ownership and gasoline consumption 10-fold. Could put a good dent in the current over supply of oil.

    Basically, the number of motor vehicles per 1,000 people is 32 (as of 1997)...but it has increased now.

    A given number of vehicles recorded from 1985:
    cars 206,300 (1985), trucks and buses 172,800 (1985)

  • If Cuba is allowed to import our cars, that will create millions of new drivers, creating a new market for the excess oil supply.

  • Obama speaks at noon about relaxing relations with Cuba and 2:00 Fed speaks.

    Cuba to greatly expand Cuban access to the internet. Also allowing import of telecommunications to build out infrastructure.

  • First time since 1962-this has to be good for the market. Obama speaks at noon.

  • Investment hit?
    With high levels of output from the US and no sign of a sustained economic recovery in Europe, most experts believe prices will remain low for the foreseeable future.

    However, the low cost of crude may also make investment in some new wells uneconomical - which means prices could rise in the longer term.

    Goldman Sachs has estimated that about $930m of investment in new oil projects could be hit, given the recent plunge in oil prices.

    Without this investment, new oil output could be cut by about 7.5 million barrels a day by 2025, or about 8% of current demand, the bank estimates.

  • baxterjames120 by baxterjames120 Dec 17, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    Moreover, even banks are also turning extremely optimistic about the future of solar power in the U.S. According to a Deutsche Bank report, by 2016, solar power will be cheaper than grid power in almost 36 states, and this number could be 47 if federal credits are included.

    (click to enlarge)

    Figure 4: Cost Of Solar Power vis a vis grid power

    UCS projects that for more than half the states, as shown in Figure 4 above, solar power will be cheaper than utility power. In addition, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and SolarCity have recently formed a new investment program for financing an estimated $400 million in solar power projects in 2014 and 2015 alone. This is a part of the 10-year, $50 billion environmental business goal announced by the Bank of America in 2012.

  • Reply to

    SUNE is very oversold-we are due for a rally

    by baxterjames120 Dec 16, 2014 10:23 AM
    baxterjames120 baxterjames120 Dec 16, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    run you son of a gun!!

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