Merck is selling a whopping $5M ebola vaccine to GAVI. So NO, the money is not in the sale of the vaccine, it is in the funding contracts that government give to each company. And Inovio won that hands down with the DARPA $45M grant. OOps!
INO is not late to the party. INO is already in the party with the $45M DARPA grant for Ebola. I think they are one of the biggest winners of the Ebola funding contest.
I think even in the HPV Phase II trial, 12 participants dropped out of the study from injection pain. I'm assuming that they did not like the IM EP device. So I think a ID EP device is going to be very well received by all, especially the patients. And once there is general acceptance of the ID EP, DNA vaccine is going to be a real alternative in the infectious disease market. And I think one of our first customers will be the military since they have invested in the EP device, and DARPA will probably find it very useful for the troops since they are exposed to many diseases on the front line, and infectious disease is a big problem in the field when troops live in close quarters in the barracks.
Part of it is the market conditions, so the momentum is down. So it is not going to jump back up that easily. A lot of transactions still need to be closed, and the people who are selling the options will probably build their own hedges. That is why I said let's wait until end of February to see where all of the wagers are placed. There is no rush for me. I'm actually looking to be a buyer at these levels. One thing for sure is that this is the last offering for shorts to really get out prior to Q3 Phase III release. So it's really up to them when they want to cover. The market is in correction mode, but at some point, I think everyone will realize that there are some bargains out there. Novavax has $500M+ in the bank, so they are really in a good position to finish the trial.
At this point, I'm not interested in chasing the Zika. This is Ebola 2.0, and we didn't get any funding from BARDA. I say leave it for others to chase this dream.
The only reason why I would chase the Zika vaccine right now, is if I think NVAX can boost their chances of landing a HHS preparedness contract at the end of this year. If we think we can increase our odds to landing that, then yeah, we should show the world AGAIN, that we can beat anyone to the punch.
The price of the notes was directly tied to the share price. So you knew that everyone on that offer was shorting the house on Novavax to drive the price as low as possible. Look at the price action on the days that the notes were announced. You see the price get pressed down at the end of the trading day.
What I really don't understand is why this Phase 1 trial takes 2 years, while everyone else only needs 6 months. I think it is to be safe, but it is quite long and conservative.
So now that we know the recent $500k army grant for the skin EP device is for the commercial device, this is really really good news because it opens up all of infectious disease to EP. Previously, I didn't think Inovio would be competitive using IM EP because of the pain. If Inovio is in the final stages of a skin EP that does not hurt, well, that is a game changer. There is still a small roadblock which is the cost and availability of the EP device itself. But this is a treatment, now with skin EP, that you can sell to the general public without too much complaints.
I would really hope they short the stock because if a big pharma buys NVAX for RSV, it's going to be more fuel to the fire. The shorts know that this is the last offer to get out. If they want to stick around, be my guest.
They are not going to do anything until the over-allotment is done. I would wait until end of February for all of the transactions to close, and then we'll see how the next phase of the game is to be played.
I think the patent protects Novavax from others who want to combine both RSV and flu into 1 shot.
If others keep it as 2 shots, then that is fine.
And it might not be royalties that NVAX wants. They may seek an injunction to stop others from selling it altogether. I'm sure whichever way is more profitable, it is the way they will go. If getting double digit royalties for someone else's work is more profitable, I'm sure that is how it will work. Of course, I would expect a huge upfront cash settlement, on top of the royalties. That's usually how it goes.
And it might stop others from touting a beneficial claim that it works better when both are administered, since this was specifically stated in the patent.
So I see this patent as quite beneficial to NVAX.
xcellprouk, how do you like your ProCervix?
LOL. That is a terrible title by the author. It ain't a submarine launching to hunt down a vaccine. Geez.
I'm sure there is still marketing that needs to happen, especially first couple years. Most people have not heard of RSV, so that is why the labeling granted by the FDA on the Resolve trial is very important. I think that was lost on a lot of investors. Moderate-severe RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease.
I think the main goal of their marketing strategy will be tying RSV into Pneumonia...similar to how Prevnar is doing it. Prevnar is Pneumococcal Pneumonia, which attacks the upper respiratory tract. So Novavax is smart, they will market as RSV-causing Pneumonia, which attack the lower respiratory tract. I think the general public understand Pneumonia, and that's what Novavax marketing need to tap into.
Marketing is like statistics, just have to bend it to fit what you are trying to say or prove.
Not going to speculate on sales or marketing costs because it depends on if they get on the ACIP list and if Medicare is going to give them a reimbursement code.
As far as revenue, again, it is the same 2 big factors...ACIP and insurance coverage. If we can get both, then we may hit $300M-500M revenue and in the following years, we will be over $1B-2B per year revenue in 3-5 years. And once we get RSV maternal and RSV/flu combo, we may hit $3B+ per year revenue in 5+ years. This is a huge market like seasonal flu or like Prevnar.
The absolute monster in the making is this seasonal flu/RSV combo vaccine because you can take a bigger piece of the seasonal flu business, which in itself is a $3-$4B market. I think the elderly would welcome a 1 shot combo vaccine rather than take a RSV shot and a seasonal flu shot separately.
Novavax would be blinded to the trial results unless it is a schedule interim analysis. But they would have general RSV attack rate, and can make a very good guess as to how this trial will turn out. Remember that Novavax already ran a large Phase II trial where they got an attack rate number. So if this season's attack rate is higher than last year's, then this would boost Novavax's confidence in how Phase III will succeed.
Novavax and current shareholders do not have to worry about a low-ball offer right before Phase III results, and have a ton of cash on hand. The bondholders are happy they get to lock in interest bearing notes until 2023, and will have a windfall if there is an offer.
Big Pharma will need to make a large offer, or sit this one out only to watch Novavax get to the $5 billion dollar RSV market first without any competitors in the way. Stan has thrown down the gauntlet, and gone all in. Like I said when I first invested in this company. Novavax's future is my future. Let's roll.
Well, sort of. Although, in a typical poison pill, the offer is already made, and you basically buy another asset that is not appealing to the buyer. So in essence, you are poisoning yourself. However, in this deal, I think Novavax was actually smart enough to put into place a notes offer that will benefit themselves greatly by generating cash by the tune of $300 (which I don't consider poison), and it is only poisonous to the buyer because the notes terms adjust upon an offer. I think Stan probably started getting a lot of interests from big pharma, and the prices were quite low in their initial chats...and he realizes that a hostile takeover may happen. So they crafted this note deal to be beneficial to Novavax in the short term, and in the event of an offer, it will be much higher than if the deal was not in place. It is rather quite clever. At this point, I think Novavax is betting it all on the Phase III trial results in Q3 2016. And that shows me that they are that confident in its success. It's all in.
If biotech goes to crapper, AF's power diminishes as well. So it is to AF's benefit that biotech is red hot, then he can wield his pen and play master of the universe. I think he realized going to recent JPM conference when the market down is not as fun, and not as many craft beers going around. So at this time, it is good for AF to support biotech. Ask the analysts that covers oil right now, they are all irrelevant, and the oil conferences are like ghost towns. Houston is in a depression.