Tried to short shares twice towards end of trading yesterday at Schwab. Got a message stating that they were canceling order per my request. I made no such request. I called and they said Schwab has no TWTR shares available to short. The annoying thing was that any other time no shares have been available to short in a security, the cancelation message has said so.
Not necessarily, but I do think it means that even the SEC doesn't expect anything material to come out of the inquiry. I continue to believe the "worst" that happens is that LINE is forced to restate their accounting for the put hedges. And, since such an action would not impact their business model or distribution, it shouldn't have any meaningful impact (other than the brief moment following the announcement, if any) on the stock price.
Good points. I do need to have my accountant check into the state tax issues, especially for California since BRY is bringing significant California resources.
It would seem more logical to me that LINE would trade slightly higher than LNCO as the norm to account for the NPV of its tax advantages. Yet, it seems LNCO always trades higher.
That's the kind of volume one would typically see when a company is added to an index, like the S&P 500. But, maybe there was just a large negotiated trade.
Bought more today on the premise that VALE is down on ETF activity unrelated to its own fundamentals. It was a great quarter, China economy is improving and they have a solid strategy to continue to deliver results. No matter the outcome of the tax issue (supposedly known by Nov. 29th), eliminating this overhang should be positive for the stock leading into their Dec. 2nd analyst day. GLTA
You are joking, right. Why have the analysts grossly underestimated VALE's past 3 quarters of results? Why were the analysts last year projecting I/O prices of less than $100 this year? Why were they talking about a hard landing in China? Perhaps it's because they have no clue what's going to happen in the future. But, if you believe them, you should not own VALE. Yet, one of the better ones, JPM says VALE is worth $25.
In my view, despite increased I/O supply, prices are likely to remain relatively stable on increasing global demand in 2014. And, VALE in particular will grow operating cash flow in 2014 due to further cost reductions and increasing volume in a stable price environment. Near term, It appears a best case scenario may come out of China this weekend as inflation is below target and industrial output much higher than expected. And, when the Brazil tax overhang is put behind them on November 29th (regardless of the outcome), the December 2nd analyst meeting should be the kick-off to another leg up in the stock. IMO, this is a $25 to $30 stock in 2014 and putting my money where my mouth is I own 200,000 shares at an average price of $14. GLTA
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I look at it this way. When it looked like the SEC might never clear the S-4 and the distribution was in jeopardy due to a couple of weak quarters, the stock traded in the mid-to-upper $20 range. With the S-4/A cleared, we now know LINE has access to the capital markets again. And, the BRY deal, while perhaps expensive is said to be cash flow positive, along with a solid quarter and guidance should further secure, if not enhance, the distribution. So, regardless of the way the stock trades in the next couple of months, unless we get a negative surprise from the SEC or the deal, we should head back up over time into the mid-$30's and move on from there, so long as interest rates stay low and oil prices reasonably high. In the meantime, enjoy the monthly distributions. GLTA
Sounds like worst case is $11B over 10 years or about 5% to 6% of current annual cash flow. And, the upside appears to be the rumored settlement that they could reduce the burden 80%, if they pay $2.2B up-front. Seems to me that given results, worst case is already more than priced in and upside to best case could be substantial.
A couple of near-term challenges probably caused people to book some recent gains compounding the decline on weak day in the market already. China could tighten policy at their meeting this weekend. The Brazil tax issue is to be resolved by Nov 29th. The Fed could taper in the US sooner than previously thought given strong numbers today. Obviously, the results were strong and if we get past the China meeting and the tax issue without major incident, then, the next catalyst could be the early December analyst meeting. GLTA
This is not an investigation. This is just another one of those slimy, ambulance chasing law firms trolling for a plaintiff to pursue a settlement fee at the expense of shareholders. It happens with every acquisition these days. In fact, companies budget for the expense as part of their merger budget because it as sure to happen as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.
It could, but it's still lower than it was when income was half as much and iron ore prices were lower. It all depends on how they guide in the morning. If they are bullish, the stock will continue to climb. If not, the stock could pull back and wait for more data. We still have the tax decision by Nov. 29th and the analyst meeting on December 2nd as near-term potential catalysts. And, they could also increase the dividend materially, especially if the tax situation is favorably concluded.
We need to hear what the guidance is in the morning. Stocks with great quarters aren't being rewarded if they have weak guidance. Based on what VALE management has said to date, I don't think the guidance will be weak. I think they will argue the demand will be there to support the price regardless of increased supply and that all the fear of substantive price erosion in 2014 is overblown and unwarranted. IF they say this, the stock will continue it's climb to the mid-$20's in the coming months. GLTA
If a person chooses to make up their own facts, then, they can justify anything. The truth is that LINE traded pretty steady at $38 after the BRY deal was announced and before the short attack and weak quarterly results. The SEC inquiry happened to ensue, but it's not reasonable to suggest the stock has recouped its pre-SEC level when it should be the combined effect of the short attack, weak quarterly results and the SEC taken together. So, I would argue the level is $38 and, if we reduce that by 8% for the increased dilution of the new deal, then, that takes it down to $35. So, if $35 is our starting point, what else do we know. First, there is another acquisition that has been made. Second, Q3 and guidance for Q4 is much improved. Third, BRY has outperformed expectations. And yet, the SEC inquiry appears to be unresolved, but the risk of any major impact appears materially reduced. All told, IMO the stock should trade between $32 and $35 right now. If they complete the BRY deal and prove the integration is accretive, thus raising the distribution at minimum to the previously projected $3.08, the stock should then move even higher (depending on any SEC news, of course). GLTA
Revenue: Est: $12.29B Actual: $12.9B
Diluted EPS: Est: $0.56; Actual: $0.72
Very solid quarter. No guidance provided in the release (unless I skimmed past of it). Perhaps on the call. If they give solid guidance, the stock is going to move higher tomorrow. GLTA
No, but it seems to me a very strong quarter has already been telegraphed among what we know about China, iron ore prices, cost reductions by VALE, the Real weakness, etc. I am guessing 85+ cents adjusted for FX and the stock breaks through $18 tomorrow. That would still put it below where it was when earnings were half as much and iron ore prices were 30% lower. GL
The S-4/A is done. The SEC has no further questions on it. So, the deal can move forward. That's separate from the continuation of the SEC inquiry.
Couldn't get on call, but from the tidbits so far, would I be off base to suggest that the reason the price jumped to 1.68X was because it was a premium needed to get BRY to go through with a stock/unit deal with the SEC inquiry continuing? And, while the deal appears back on track, the price paid and the SEC inquiry would seem to put a lid on the stock for quite some time. Did they say anything at this point about the level of synergies available in 2014? Set a target? Thx.
Will be interesting to see if he dumps again based on the news that the SEC inquiry continues since that was his reason last time for dumping and his belief it was over was his explanation for buying back in.
At least you are on. I can't get in. Never had trouble before. Please post anything significant. Thx