As an outsider to Brazil, it would seem logical to me that a vote for Silva was a vote for change and against Dilma and the vast majority would now vote for Neves. In addition, with Neves being allowed equal TV ad time as Dilma for the run-off, it would seem he has the chance to more effectively get his message out and improve his momentum and even take some votes from Dilma. The only advantage it would seem Dilma has is she can now hone her message towards Neves.
This thing is so heavily shorted that I would expect we might see some covering into the election run-off (assuming there is one), the dividend ex-date, and earnings (since VALE has already stated at conferences that they will meet their financial objectives with non-IO products and higher IO volumes overcoming lower IO prices). Historically, everyone knows now that this thing tends to run up after the elections, regardless of who wins.
How do you figure the positive impact on net earnings (or cash flow for that matter)? Just curious if you know because I don't have a grasp of the income and cash flowing from the various locations, only the total business. And, depending upon how these perform vs. what they now have left will determine whether it is accretive to earnings or cash flow. With the swaps to date, they have been quick to say with each swap that they are accretive to net cash available for distribution and I haven't seen that here yet. Thanks
Good. I don't recall if they are entirely done with their swaps and sales, but they are largely done and can now focus on cash flow from current positions and accretive acquisitions moving forward.
Could it be that LINE is held in large part by retirees who panic (just as they did during the SEC debacle) and on rather lightly traded volume on a day no one is looking to buy to provide support, the downside is rather large. Just a thought.
Not one of your better analysts. I just put in AH order for 15,000 shares at $99.00. Got about a third of them so far. The logic stated is that Apple is out of surprises. Who needs surprises when you have all that they have going on. You just have to be able to do the math and investors will go nuts over their strong margins.
This Apple long has made a few million since low $400's pre-split. And, when the stock is $150 next year, it will be a few more million. So, why you crazies want to destroy this board with inane BS is probably because you missed the run, or missed the run, but held on for the prior fall just to panic at the bottom.
Read an interesting tidbit about the election process in Brazil. It seems TV ad time is permitted based on a party's representation in Parliament which has Rousseff with a large advantage over Silva, despite a close race. However, in a run-off election, TV ad time will be split equally. It would seem that if Silva is running a very close race with minimal TV ad time allowed, she should have a very solid shot to win the run-off given a level playing field.
Thanks for the insight. I keep averaging down myself. IMO, VALE has a lot going for it. First, they have said as recently as this past weak that they will deliver their financial goals at the current reduced IO prices. Second, nearly all analysts expect IO prices to stabilize in the mid-$80's to mid-$90's. Third, VALE plans to increase production 50% by 2018. Fourth, VALE will continue to reduce costs (Carajas mine expansion), reduce capital expenditures, and reduce shipping (VALEMAX).
IMO, a 50% increase in production with lower expenses and capital investment, even at current IO prices, should produce much higher cash flows (and dividends) and a materially higher stock price. What it does in the next week or month or 6-months, who knows. Favorable election results would help as would signs that China is not going to fall off a cliff.
One last thought, if there is such a glut of IO, how is it that VALE is making their numbers on higher volumes at lower prices and yet stock in Chinese ports has declined? GLTA
I started to agree with you re: Apple customers expect premium perfect. But, despite the hysteria in the media, I do not see the bending as an issue, especially at the low, low rate of 9 out of 10 million. I see it more like any new technology on the cutting edge. When smartphones first came out, people had to understand and manage the fact that if you drop them the screen cracks and if you drop them in water, well, you're likely screwed. Here, before people knew they could bend, you only had 9 incidence reported. Now that the world is aware, the rate will decline. And, anyone who says that the 9 reported is the tip of an iceberg are crazy. If you buy a new iPhone and it bends out of shape, you report it. Now, for all the benefits offered by the 6 plus, a customer has to understand that it can bend if sufficient bending force is applied. This is a fabricated problem. Now, the IOS 8 update is cause for customers to be irritated, but it will get fixed in a short while and life will go on. If there were no catalysts, I would sell my position. However, the China license will be secured shortly, sales and margins will surprise, analysts will be upping their numbers again, the holiday season will be spectacular in the U.S. followed by the Chinese New Year, and the Apple Watch will be launched. So, I will hold on for $120+ in the coming months. GLTA
Wow, all of this for 9 complaints out of millions of phones? That's amazing. Now that people know it can be a problem with excessive force, they won't do it anymore and the complaint rate will decline.
That makes sense to me. I often put my iPhone 5 in my front pocket. However, I am smart enough not to do that should I get the 6+ knowing that it can bend it. It's just not a big issue. I know I can't dunk it in water either. Still, as an investor, I am more interested in the financial outlook and the high demand and what appears to be surprisingly strong margins will propel the stock as earnings approach. Then, we will have the Chinese license approval, the U.S. holiday season, the Chinese New Year and the launch of the Apple Watch. Lot's of reasons to be long here and these hiccups simply create more opportunity near-term.
I do hope you are short since you speak with such conviction. It would be a shame to be so certain and not profit from it.
And, Apple was up big yesterday and the market was down. Not sure your theory holds. However, I do agree there are writing staffs for competitors and investors who want to beat Apple stock and image down at every turn. And, a lot of investors simply react rather than think. In my view, given the very favorable margin metrics for the 6/6+ and enormous demand expectations, the hiccup in the IOS 8 update rollout and people who buy the 6+ needing to know not to put it situations that will bend it are simply not major issues. But, if it creates a trading opportunity or buying opportunity, than, that's fine by me.
Sold out when it ran up recently because either 1) the deal goes through and between people selling a part of their holdings to cover the taxes and all the new stock hitting the market there will be substantial downside pressure on the stock, or 2) the deal falls through or becomes meaningfully less accretive and the stock gets hit. Either way, I want more on a pullback, if the facts still look good.
IMO it stays the same. They reiterated their financial goals just last week in the face of the lower IO prices. And, they are going to increase volume and reduce costs to offset any IO price declines, even though most project prices to move back up as we get into the restocking and higher demand season in the coming weeks. Still, I expect all miners will protect cash for dividends and otherwise hoard it to protect against any further price declines.
This is why I generally ignore analysts. Where was he when the stock was $15 a few months ago? Now, the stock is at $11 and he is bearish? Real helpful. Personally, I don't think anyone knows what supply, demand or price for IO will be in 2015 and certainly not looking out int 2016 and 2017.
It's actually a viable strategy so long as interest rates remain low (as they will for several years to come) and energy prices don't tank (as they are unlikely to do given the global unrest in oil and gas producing regions).