I would think we would wake up to updates from one or more analysts. And, since the "credible" analysts have all remained constructive even during this period of adversity, I would think they would be highly motivated to gloat a bit and be very positive supporting a continuation in the stock price. So, I would think the stock goes up to the low $30's from here, whether tomorrow or next week once people have had a chance to absorb the new information and re-run their models.
Exactly. The big investors and analysts now have to meet, reassess the new information, and make decisions. The big moves are more likely early next week once this process takes place. Still, uncertainty remains as to how much LINE will have to sweeten the deal with BRY to get it done. That overhang will be with us until we know for sure. To the extent the SEC mattered and uncertainty re: the distribution mattered, those should be behind us now.
Don't expect it all in one day, but I would be surprised if we don't see $30+ stock within the next week or so. If SEC is truly behind us, the distribution is much more assured now (especially if merger occurs), so it's a great chance for a 10%+ distribution in a much lower risk situation than existed yesterday.
Already, they capture the lion's share of the margin in the smartphone market. The new Japan distribution partner and new lower priced iPhone will allow them to take an even larger share of the profits. And, China Mobile will happen and allow even more. For them to offer a phone so cheap as to appeal to everyone is simply not a way to make significant incremental profitable and would be pursued at the risk of destroying the brand of high quality. I think Apple knows exactly what they are doing and they are right IMO.
Clearly, LINE has the most upside from this SEC outcome, as they took the biggest hit because of it. However, any MLP that has been hit by the false statements made by Barry at Barron's and Kaiser at Hedgeye should now have a clean bill of health as well. We should have several nice days of upside ahead of us here. We may not get back to $38, but certainly something north of $30 is in the cards IMO. GLTA
My experience with the SEC suggests the following. The comments are such that LINE will simply confirm their acceptance in writing and in updating their S4 and move forward. Also, while I would assume this clears up everything relating to the SEC, it would be helpful for LINE to clarify that point. I can't imagine the SEC giving LINE a clean bill of health on the merger and continuing a separate inquiry, but clarification is in order. GLTA
Good news out of China this weekend. Imports up more than 10% over a year-ago, exports up more than 5%. Further sign two-quarter slow-down is reversing and very positive for stocks like VALE.
Never heard of these guys. I see they give a near-term, 10-day PT of $16.95. IF the macro investment climate doesn't change for the worse (e.g. Syria, U.S. government shutdown, Fed tightening, China growth, etc.), I still think VALE pushes low-$20 range by year-end. It should make a nice move into what everyone expects to be a very strong quarterly report and, if it is very strong, it could make an additional move into year-end.
Just look at the history. It can move 30% or more in a matter of weeks. And, IMO it's set-up to make such a move. The current price simply does not reflect the strong performance in the past period nor the fact that this period should be stronger against weak estimates. Even JPM raised its PT to $25 from $23 as the stock has come back own. For the stock to catch-up, it needs to move back into the low to mid-$20 range. GLTA
My understanding is that it's illegal for the lead plaintiff to get reimbursed in any way, except for reasonable out of pocket expenses. Truly, you are being used as a stooge for a law firm to try to settle for a fee at shareholder expense.
Frankly, I am scratching my head on the action. The quarter and guidance were very strong and any news relevant to the business since then has only been positive. Yet, if the stock is in ETF's it could be getting taken down largely unrelated to its business.
Otherwise, perhaps they need to deliver this next quarter and possibly increase their dividend to make believers of the investment community again. Personally, I believe this should be a low-$20's stock in the coming months, but the price action is disappointing. GLTA
Just reported 6% annualized growth for Q2. Perhaps not directly material to VALE stock price, but doesn't hurt to have the local economy growing and showing signs of stability.
The estimate is significantly lower than the prior quarter actual, excluding FX adjustment. It would appear demand and pricing will be stronger this period and costs continuing to recede (helped by the continued devaluation of the Real). As such, it would seem VALE is fairly assured of a strong beat in the upcoming report, excluding any non-cash FX adjustments again. Barring any macro disasters, I would think VALE will appreciate nicely into the dividend payment and earnings report.
Russia should reconcile because their proposed course is irrational. They simply can't produce enough volume to profitably pursue a market share strategy at the prices they claim to want to take the market. Yet, I think while Belarus may have created a sense of urgency on the part of the parties to address the issue, I simply don't see what leverage Belarus has to make it happen.
Frankly, I think the cartel in Russia will reconcile because the economics make no sense. Russia can't produce enough volume to overcome the lost margin on price, if they price at the levels they claim. But, let's say they don't reconcile. The Russians can only produce about 13 million tons in a 60 million ton market, so why doesn't everyone else just continue to bid current, or even higher, prices? The downside would be letting the Russians choose their customers, but I would rather supply the 47 million tons at higher prices and let the Russians lose their shorts on lower priced business than gravel in the mud with them.
Clearly, the real P/E is in the mid-single digits. However, some services only pick up the earnings before considering things like FX. IMO, it's the cash flow that's the real story here and it's strong and growing and the value of the business today fails to reflect this fact.
VALE is highly likely to have an excellent few quarters run in terms of earnings (excluding FX adjustments) and cash flow with stronger demand, higher prices and lower costs helped by a weaker Real. As such, I would view any drops during this period of volatility as buying opportunities unless something surfaces that suggests demand, especially in China, will not be there. Other plays I like include Devon Energy (DVN) and Potash. Devon reported a stellar quarter and, after an initial bounce, there stock has given up the gains. I am in at $57. I also like Potash (POT). I do not believe the Russian/Belarus cartel break-up can impact the price of potash anywhere near the 25% to 30% forecast because they can't even supply more than 25% of the market. If true, as this becomes understood, POT should return towards the upper $30's and the yield currently is about 4.5%. There is also the chance that the cartel reforms since the break-up is not in their best interests. I am in at $30. GLTA
I agree with your opinion on the short pressure. If ever they have been active, it has been on low volume Fridays and this morning was particularly low volume and ripe for them to attack. Personally, I think it would be foolish to be short here. A lot of bad is priced in and any good news could send this stock to $30+ before one even has a chance to trade with a positive pre-market release.