86 million shares were issued pursuant to the acquisition today. That's a lot of additional shares available on the sell side of the equation and some investors (likely hedge funds) wanted to book some end of month profits on the deal.
Any thoughts on the latest agreement with the government announced this evening? My take is that the parties are moving towards a resolution favorable to ESV, but it will take another month to get there. If the parties weren't moving in a positive direction, ESV would simply go back to the court IMO. It would seem to me that the government wants their pound of flesh, but that ESV is going to get what they want and it will be a catalyst for the stock.
Ensco held a 2-day analyst meeting in Europe. Jeffries reiterated their buy recommendation with $67 price target this morning. Positive comments were made about the pace of integration of Pride as well as general demand activity for jack-ups and the improving environment for permits in the GOM.
There was to be an update to the court in LA re: the litigation relating to permits status today (June 20th) with a final resolution by July 8th. Hopeful for good news here.
Drillers in general just keep getting pounded, but the news relating to them all seems positive, if not downright bullish. One question is "how low will these stocks go before anyone cares?"
I am new to this board and to HLF. Started buying yesterday and currently plan to keep buying, unless there is some new news. As a retired CEO of a public company, I am at a loss (other than Einhorn's reputation for shorting) as to why HLF is in this situation. The quarter was excellent. The guidance was okay (certainly not a cause for a major pullback). The questions posed by Einhorn seem benign. The SEC looked at this Company 5 years ago and they found nothing. And, I can tell you, if the SEC has been in your shorts you are very aware of what they require and very attentive to making certain you never do anything to give them cause to come back (unless your name is Aubrey McClendon, of course). So, in my opinion, unless another shoe drops (which is what everyone is worried about), this is a stock that deserves to be back in the mid-$60's and if that starts becoming apparent in the coming weeks, for all these shorts to cover, it will probably drive the stock well past that level. But, I guess if everyone thinks Einhorn may have something to say at a conference in mid-May, there may not be any sense of comfort whatsoever until then.
I am new to this board and to HLF. Started buying yesterday and currently plan to keep buying, unless there is some new news. As a retired CEO of a public company, I am at a loss (other than Einhorn's reputation for shorting) as to why HLF is in this situation. The quarter was excellent. The guidance was okay (certainly not a cause for a major pullback). The questions posed by Einhorn seem benign (almost amateurish). The SEC looked at this Company 5 years ago and they found nothing. And, I can tell you, if the SEC has been in your shorts you are very aware of what they require and very attentive to making certain you never do anything to give them cause to come back (unless your name is Aubrey McClendon, of course). So, in my opinion, unless another shoe drops (which is what everyone is worried about), this is a stock that deserves to be back in the mid-$60's and if that starts becoming apparent in the coming weeks, for all these shorts to cover, it will probably drive the stock well past that level. But, I guess if everyone thinks Einhorn may have something to say at a conference in mid-May, there may not be any sense of comfort whatsoever until then.
The $10.7B bid for Avon would seem to be another indication of the validity of the Herbalife business model. Companies with their advisors (bankers, lawyers and auditors) in tow, don't make $10.7B bids for flawed, illegal business models. Also, good to see the insider buying and acceleration of the stock buy-back. As the former CEO of a public company, I can certainly see how the risk factor disclosures highlighted by Greenberg might cause some to be concerned, I have yet to see anything that would cause me to worry excessively here. If you focus on the risk factors of any public company, you wouldn't invest in any of them.
As a new long to this stock, it would have been nice to see the short squeeze continue today for a quick return. However, I am using the lull in the action to increase my position. With the negative event (worries over the Einhorn presentation) behind us, a solid quarter and guidance under our belts, analyst support and the stock still down 40%, the risk/reward looks very good. The shorts are still their to be squeezed another day.
I wouldn't buy this stock because the fundamentals don't support the valuation, management has no idea how to run a public company and Morgan Stanley probably is sitting on millions upon millions of shares of stock that they bought to avoid it dropping below $38 that they need to unload. This is a $15 to $20 stock in a couple of months, if not sooner.
I have taken companies public and ran public companies and other the the shareholders who are thrilled that they were able to sell their stock into the market at a substantial premium to the underlying value of their business based on the fundamentals, no one is happy. MS is sitting their with millions upon millions of shares of stock that they bought to avoid the price falling below the offering price and trying to figure out how they are going to dump these shares in the coming days and weeks. This was not by design and had nothing whatsoever to do with option expirations.
Was this a good IPO for the people wanting to sell their stock, absolutely. They got lots more than it was worth. Was this good for MS or those who are now stuck with $38 to $45 stock in a $15 to $20 business.....not so much.
Seems to me that FB is dependent upon a generation of people who are attracted to anything new that comes out and will have no loyalty to FB. And, while I have a FB account, I don't visit it often and I don't use my mobile for FB. And, I know very few people who use FB on their mobile (other than those annoying young women who want to give you the play by play of their day). So, if they are dependent upon mobile advertising to grow, I think they are going to come up way short. Just because of the hype, I wouldn't short this stock, but I do think it is going down over time.
It's truly amazing how a fraud of such magnitude can be committed and it's all legal because it's called an IPO. The best revenge is to cancel your FB account and get anyone and everyone that you know to do the same.
There is time to accumulate shares in the coming weeks, but this is one that will move as earnings approach. The shorts are likely to hang in there for awhile and hope, but they won't want to be long this one on earnings day. In my view, barring any meaningful news in the interim, we may creep towards $48 or $49 in the coming weeks, but wouldn't be surprised to see mid-$50's pre-earnings.
Would not be surprised to see the stock return to the deal price of $44.57 quickly. Picking up shares sub-$43 this morning was a nice way to average down from earlier purchases. If the overhang concern is now put to rest and the company can really produce growth moving forward, then, this should be a very productive investment between a rising stock price and 8% yield over the next couple of years.
I respectfully disagree. The high level of shorts in this stock is because of Einhorn concerns that have yet to prove out. As we continue to move towards earnings, these shorts are going to want to cover because the last quarter was stellar and there is no cause to believe this won't be as well. I think we are already starting to see some covering. I think we will continue to see it and be in the mid-$50 range by earnings time. JMO
Very impressed with results under circumstances, especially performance of underlying business with strong revenue beat, decisive action on CIO trading issue and expected return to stock buyback in Q4 (pending final review by Board of response to trading problem). Yet, as a retired public company CEO, the most encouraging comment on the call to me was when Dimon referred to the analyst projections and said "we hope to beat all." As he must, he disclaimed that they were their projections and not JPM's and that he couldn't promise to beat them, but the fact that he made this comment suggests to me he wanted to send a strong message that he is very confident in beating current projections. Obviously, if analysts raise their numbers it would be a near-term catalyst for the shares, but even confirming numbers at these prices would likely take a major weight of uncertainty off of the stock.
While I don't agree that buybacks hurt investors, I will say that we get more buybacks, as opposed to dividends, because management usually owns stock via incentive stock plans (options, restricted shares, etc.) that are excluded from dividend payments. Until this changes, you will keep seeing a weighting towards buybacks v. dividends, except in situations where the management owns most of their holdings.
The WSJ article clearly articulates that the SEC asked questions and considers the case closed. This is good for HLF. It also gets SEC off the hook for quite some time. Good opportunity to add back sub-$50 (which all you had to do is see where it fell last time and bounced, about $49.65 to know where to put in your bid....just FYI) after selling part of my position post-earnings. Be patient longs.
Initiating a short position. The financial performance and outlook do not support this stock being in the $70s. It should be comfortably trading in the $45 to $50 range, but not up here.