Surprised the covering hasn't helped the stock recover a bit, but perhaps it slowed the decline. With all the positive data and an upcoming conference call where we know the financial guidance (year-end cash balance and NOL) will be materially upgraded, I wouldn't want to be short. And, there will be continued milestone announcements during the year. Still, what the stock does for the next year or two until they get a meaningful product on the market is anybody's guess, but it will soar when they do. I am banking on it moving higher in the meantime.
Doubt management interested in $85 today when I suspect they feel they can get $200 or $300, if not more, by getting some of these products to market over the next two to four years. But, if they were to get bought out today, it would be a smaller player, like GILD, rather than one of the majors knowing that it won't add to their near-term financial performance, but at least the milestone payments seem to cover the cash flow. A big pharma would rather pay more later and get an immediate financial impact.
FYI, in the past couple of weeks, a board member purchased 500,000 shares at $35.33 and R. Kinder picked up another 100,000 as well.
Likely too early. They buy for financial and/or strategic reasons. There would be no financial reason to buy now because there are no drugs on the market driving sales/profit. That said, I could see a strategic interest given the wide range of potential applications for the core technology (assuming the IP is valuable). Still, I think we are a couple of year away before a major would be an interested buyer of ISIS and the stock in the meantime is at the whims of the market, though one would think with a bias to move higher as news comes out over time.
Yes, this is certainly a huge opportunity, even larger in Europe (600M+ people). What I want to learn more about is "just how well linked is elevated Lp(a) to the development of cardiovascular disease and, most importantly, has it been definitively shown that reducing Lp(a) levels reduces the development of future cardiovascular disease." I am assuming the answers to both of these questions are "yes", or will be demonstrated by product launch, and, if so, it's going to be a blockbuster recommended by the American Heart Association in short order (which would also be the ideal forum for presenting the data near year-end as it is usually in mid-November, if the data is ready).
Thanks. Very helpful update. Do you know what the milestone criteria is for this $2.15M? I presume they have a completed a certain number of the 120 patients, but don't know. Also, an early FDA decision would require unblinding the data. I wonder if this is in their plans or not? If I recall, you can unblind data, but you may have to penalize yourself on the p-value then required to show statistical significance.
Besides having bad data, you are missing the point. Perhaps there are only 10K patients in the U.S., Europe and Japan for these applications of the technology and the $100M or so in revenue isn't substantial, but the point is that these applications further validate the technology that has application in huge applications elsewhere. Your Harvoni is in the SMA application, the Bayer deal for clotting, diabetes, Hep C and obesity applications, just to name a few.
When all the news is good (SMA data, Bayer deal, orphan drug status, etc.) and the stock declines, it's frustrating, but just means you are getting an even better deal. The data seems to have eliminated the technology risk at this point and the partnerships would seem to have nearly done the same for the market risks. This stock will be $300 to $600 in the next 3 to 5 years IMO, unless it is bought out in the interim.
Seems to me that many or most of the others who depend on hedges are losing their protection much sooner than LINE and could become good pickings for some attractively priced asset additions for LINE as 2015 comes to a close and into 2016. They need to avoid people just watching the hedge clock tick and hoping for higher oil prices.
I thought he was only talking about the 2015 guidance for NOL and year-end cash balance. He said they would be updated with the q2 release and that they would be much better than the original guidance of $50M NOL and $630M cash. I didn't understand him to say anything about numbers on the Bayer deal itself. But, having lots of experience in a wide range of major surgical procedures where bleeding and anticoagulation is an issue, the opportunity is enormous which is why Bayer is investing such a huge sum. And, I thought Dr. Crooke sounded very certain when he said "we know it works."
The SMA opportunity is exciting, but the magnitude of the Bayer opportunity is particularly impressive. The bleeding caused by anticoagulation during major surgeries (orthopedic, cardiovascular, etc.) forces surgeons to demand lower pressures to enhance visibility in the surgical field. If you can maintain pressure without added bleeding, you should not only avoid the direct issues associated with current anticoagulants, but you should get better overall outcomes related to inadequate blood flow and oxygenation to the vital organs which should show up is lesser adverse events and shorter length of ICU and hospital stay.
You apparently have an axe to grind (former employee?). The truth is that insiders should sell stock when their holdings advance to diversify their investments. Also, if they are options or restricted stock, they have a limit when they have no choice other than to convert and sell. Regardless of how long it has taken this company to get to where it is, they are still early to mid-stage in development and having been in this industry all of my life, I am confident they have a home run. It may take another year or two before they get to a true inflection point where they have products producing profits, but I am willing to be patient and trade around my core position. IMO, this will be a several hundred dollar stock in the future and how it performs in the near-term is anybody's guess, but it's undervalued on the metrics.
Very nice presentation by Dr. Crooke. Obviously, nothing new, but the take-away to me was they will be materially changing their financial forecast for NOL and year-end cash balance for the better at the upcoming Q2 earnings release. And, there are a lot of other milestones for the 2H15 to help the stock. Certainly, the early data for various applications was extremely impressive. I was also impressed with the acknowledgement that they have figured out how to use antisense technology to increase proteins and pursued patents, as this could greatly extend the potential for the technology in the future.
Agree, except I do believe there are added effects of leaving Russell 2000 and joining Russell 1000. Clearly, these changes created substantial buying and selling in a short period of time and could have greatly influenced the 15% to 20% run up followed by the 15% to 20% run back down within 2 weeks. If another poster's info is correct, leaving the Russell 2000 could very well explain the unabated selling in recent days as the index sold its shares with no regard for anything other than they had to sell by end of last week.
The huge volume this evening is not buying or selling. It's simply bookkeeping for inventory that was accumulated over the past couple of weeks for the entry into the Index. The same thing happened to my own company when I was CEO and we were put in the Index.
When they were buying the stock was going up over the past couple of weeks. This is merely bookkeeping to complete the trade at this point. Nothing is actually being bought or sold.
Likely the other side of the trade on the shares that were accumulated for entry into the Russell 2000 Index. The shares get purchased over time once it's known a company is being added to an index and get recognized all at once.
Perhaps you are right and Bayer, J&J, Biogen and the others are all wrong, but I doubt it given the degree of diligence these companies all do before investing in a license deal.
Biotech is getting hit for reasons that don't relate to ISIS, but ISIS gets hit right along with them, for now. Biotechs have conducted a tremendous number of secondaries and several of the raises have been followed by negative trial results. This is making investors jittery for the moment on early stage biotechs. Yet, ISIS has reported extremely favorable clinical data, picked up the Bayer deal, and doesn't need cash, but it gets caught up in the swoon anyway. Won't last, but have to go with the flow in the meantime.