Cramer has been all over the map. He's too emotional with his investments for my taste. He touted LINE as a very well managed business when he started buying. Now, he is selling it because he says they are poorly managed. If he makes money, he makes up reasons why he was right. And, when he loses money, he makes up reasons why it wasn't his fault. It's just how he rolls. I like the 10%+ distribution at this level and will continue to add if it goes lower. Once they start getting the BRY deal synergies figured out, the stock should do just fine.
With the distribution apparently secure, it's hard to be wrong here at these prices over time. Short-term, who knows. I picked up more LNCO today for my Roth to bring my APP below $29 and will continue to hold my long LINN position unless something fundamental changes in the outlook. GLTA
They should report a very strong quarter in February and the next one should be outstanding as well. Along the way, I would assume we will get the previously planned increase in the distribution to $3.08 (maybe even $3.10 just to give the appearance that the deal is even better than expected). May even here about some accretive asset swaps or purchases. Combined, we should see the valuation improve to the $40 range, maybe sooner than we think. GLTA
Short squeeze or not, it's hard to believe the stock won't work it's way back up to where the dividend is in the 9% to 10% range. They just have too many ways with all of their assets to make progress moving forward to justify the current valuation being this low for long.
The only way for Citi to call a neutral is if they project the stock price to increase less than 15% or 20% (whatever their hurdle is for a buy). A price target of $32, plus the distribution, is a total return of 22%. IMO, their call makes no sense because you won't get to $32 with a distribution cut and, if there is no distribution cut, then, we are talking 22% upside which is a buy even by their standards (unless they simply ignore total return and focus solely on the PPS which makes no sense with a 10%+ distribution). Regardless, I still believe over the coming quarters, LINE has too many assets not to be successful finding a way to show meaningful progress and an even more stable coverage of the distribution.
I will assume you do not have a Roth IRA and therefore it really does not matter for you that you don't understand the current law about how they work. However, you may want to get your facts straight before posting replies in the future.
The market may retest the recent correction on a macro level and could take LINE/LNCO with it regardless of the bands. However, I bought LNCO today for a trade into earnings (I am long LNCO in my Roth's and LINE in my trading account). Earnings should be strong, guidance should be strong and they may increase the distribution. GLTA
Major acquisitions, like BRY, have a way of fundamentally altering the landscape for a stock. Look at KMP in this space. Look at ETN and LRCX different spaces (both went down initially on the news, but up big as synergies realized). Spin-offs do the same thing. Look at ABT/HSP/ABBV. Once the synergies of the BRY deal begin to be realized, this could very well be a $50+ stock in 2014 with a little help from the macro market IMO and perhaps another deal or two. GLTA.
I am in already in in the $28's on LNCO in my own accounts, but would consider more IF it keeps falling. I initiated a position for my mother today at $26.40 and would add to it as well. It could go lower, but barring any meaningful change in performance of the business, I suspect we are back in the $30's in a few weeks or months. Personally, when I am done buying, I won't watch it so closely other than to assess the likelihood that the distributions will continue as this is simply a monthly cash generator for me and whether it goes up or down in the interim doesn't change its role in my portfolio. GLTA
Could very well have been shorts covering at end of day to take their gains and avoid holding over night.
Whisper EPS was for 50 cents or less so the 62 cents was positive, even if 2 or 3 cents below analysts' average. Cash flow of $6.6B was 10% higher than expectation while margin of 48% was in line. They will issue no debt in 2014 and plan to use any excess cash flow to pay additional dividends or buy-back stock.
I was favorably surprised by the expectation for base metal cash flow contribution in 2014 of an incremental several billion dollars as well as the "green iron ore" program as another opportunity for VALE to realize higher prices than the norm.
We should see some upside movement in the coming days IMO. One day, the valuation will have to reflect the performance and when it does this is a low- to mid-$20's stock.
This year will be different. CM will produce as the year unfolds. The longer exchange period in the U.S. will wash through in the coming quarter or two. The iPhone 6 will truly be the mother of all upgrade cycles as one analyst put it as well as a market share gainer. And, entry into a new category will make a substantive difference in the way people value the stock, giving it both expanding EPS and multiple IMO. Finally, I think they will enter two new categories this year, including mobile payments and the living room (TV?). GLTA
I think they have set the stage in prior remarks to announce their plans for the distribution at the call. So, they won't be mute on the subject. If they can comfortably offer and sustain an increase. However, they may have a rational for why they plan to delay an increase as well. Either way, I believe their is material SP appreciation potential in the near-term and whether the distribution is $2.90 or $3.09 shouldn't largely impact interest in the stock. Still, I think they will increase the distribution to $3.08 due to synergies from the BRY deal, in combination with an improving macro environment. GLTA
I happen to believe Cook is doing a solid job, except he hasn't delivered that new 'wow" product in a new category. But, those don't come along every day, so I am willing to be patient. If he comes through with his promise of a new category product this year and it happens to be a real winner, in addition to the value placed on the new opportunity the company will get a higher multiple on its current business as the stigma will be gone. Cook will suddenly be the golden boy. IMO, we will be pleasantly surprised and Apple will outperform expectations on its core business due to China Mobile, the wash through of the extended upgrade cycle in the U.S. by 2H14, and the market share gains and upgrade cycle that will be kicked off with the iPhone 6. I also think we will see Apple enter several new categories in the next 18 to 24 months because all the work they have been doing in several areas (mobile payments, wearables and the home) are likely to come together along the same timeline which is why no one can figure out which one is next (what if they are all next?). GLTA
China just announced a plan to invest $168B to accelerate Urbanization. I do believe if their economy is truly slowing that we are going to hear more and more about stimulus type measures to support it. VALE should benefit from such spending it would seem.
China has reiterated they are determined to achieve 7.5% growth in 2014 which suggests that they will invest to make it happen and not worry quite so much about debt and austerity which has plagued VALE in recent weeks. This should be good for iron ore manufacturers and especially VALE since they are viewed as dependent upon China. GLTA
It appears the market thinks about as much of Jeffries' research as I do. While we have some resistance to get through here around $13.75, the upcoming dividend, any stimulus or better economic news out of China, and another solid quarterly report should push us higher. GLTA
I see a lot of posts suggesting that the excess cash is needed to cover the additional shares issued in the BRY acquisition, but that is not exactly correct. They did not recognize BRY contributions in the cash flow beyond the amount of time they owed the new shares. So, the question is how much will a full quarter's cash flow contribution from the BRY deal be v. the added dilution. And, it should improve over time as synergies are realized. Still, I missed the call, so don't know if it was covered, but there must be a reason why they didn't increase it today.
This was a $400+ stock, but the fundamentals only justify perhaps $150 to $200 on the high side which just means this stock can go wherever the big boys take it and I have no conviction about the direction either way. However, it does make a lot of up and down movements most days, so it can be successfully traded long and short using momentum, overbought/oversold and price chart patterns without taking a stand on its long-term direction.