This Apple long has made a few million since low $400's pre-split. And, when the stock is $150 next year, it will be a few more million. So, why you crazies want to destroy this board with inane BS is probably because you missed the run, or missed the run, but held on for the prior fall just to panic at the bottom.
Read an interesting tidbit about the election process in Brazil. It seems TV ad time is permitted based on a party's representation in Parliament which has Rousseff with a large advantage over Silva, despite a close race. However, in a run-off election, TV ad time will be split equally. It would seem that if Silva is running a very close race with minimal TV ad time allowed, she should have a very solid shot to win the run-off given a level playing field.
Thanks for the insight. I keep averaging down myself. IMO, VALE has a lot going for it. First, they have said as recently as this past weak that they will deliver their financial goals at the current reduced IO prices. Second, nearly all analysts expect IO prices to stabilize in the mid-$80's to mid-$90's. Third, VALE plans to increase production 50% by 2018. Fourth, VALE will continue to reduce costs (Carajas mine expansion), reduce capital expenditures, and reduce shipping (VALEMAX).
IMO, a 50% increase in production with lower expenses and capital investment, even at current IO prices, should produce much higher cash flows (and dividends) and a materially higher stock price. What it does in the next week or month or 6-months, who knows. Favorable election results would help as would signs that China is not going to fall off a cliff.
One last thought, if there is such a glut of IO, how is it that VALE is making their numbers on higher volumes at lower prices and yet stock in Chinese ports has declined? GLTA
I started to agree with you re: Apple customers expect premium perfect. But, despite the hysteria in the media, I do not see the bending as an issue, especially at the low, low rate of 9 out of 10 million. I see it more like any new technology on the cutting edge. When smartphones first came out, people had to understand and manage the fact that if you drop them the screen cracks and if you drop them in water, well, you're likely screwed. Here, before people knew they could bend, you only had 9 incidence reported. Now that the world is aware, the rate will decline. And, anyone who says that the 9 reported is the tip of an iceberg are crazy. If you buy a new iPhone and it bends out of shape, you report it. Now, for all the benefits offered by the 6 plus, a customer has to understand that it can bend if sufficient bending force is applied. This is a fabricated problem. Now, the IOS 8 update is cause for customers to be irritated, but it will get fixed in a short while and life will go on. If there were no catalysts, I would sell my position. However, the China license will be secured shortly, sales and margins will surprise, analysts will be upping their numbers again, the holiday season will be spectacular in the U.S. followed by the Chinese New Year, and the Apple Watch will be launched. So, I will hold on for $120+ in the coming months. GLTA
Wow, all of this for 9 complaints out of millions of phones? That's amazing. Now that people know it can be a problem with excessive force, they won't do it anymore and the complaint rate will decline.
That makes sense to me. I often put my iPhone 5 in my front pocket. However, I am smart enough not to do that should I get the 6+ knowing that it can bend it. It's just not a big issue. I know I can't dunk it in water either. Still, as an investor, I am more interested in the financial outlook and the high demand and what appears to be surprisingly strong margins will propel the stock as earnings approach. Then, we will have the Chinese license approval, the U.S. holiday season, the Chinese New Year and the launch of the Apple Watch. Lot's of reasons to be long here and these hiccups simply create more opportunity near-term.
I do hope you are short since you speak with such conviction. It would be a shame to be so certain and not profit from it.
And, Apple was up big yesterday and the market was down. Not sure your theory holds. However, I do agree there are writing staffs for competitors and investors who want to beat Apple stock and image down at every turn. And, a lot of investors simply react rather than think. In my view, given the very favorable margin metrics for the 6/6+ and enormous demand expectations, the hiccup in the IOS 8 update rollout and people who buy the 6+ needing to know not to put it situations that will bend it are simply not major issues. But, if it creates a trading opportunity or buying opportunity, than, that's fine by me.
Sold out when it ran up recently because either 1) the deal goes through and between people selling a part of their holdings to cover the taxes and all the new stock hitting the market there will be substantial downside pressure on the stock, or 2) the deal falls through or becomes meaningfully less accretive and the stock gets hit. Either way, I want more on a pullback, if the facts still look good.
IMO it stays the same. They reiterated their financial goals just last week in the face of the lower IO prices. And, they are going to increase volume and reduce costs to offset any IO price declines, even though most project prices to move back up as we get into the restocking and higher demand season in the coming weeks. Still, I expect all miners will protect cash for dividends and otherwise hoard it to protect against any further price declines.
This is why I generally ignore analysts. Where was he when the stock was $15 a few months ago? Now, the stock is at $11 and he is bearish? Real helpful. Personally, I don't think anyone knows what supply, demand or price for IO will be in 2015 and certainly not looking out int 2016 and 2017.
It's actually a viable strategy so long as interest rates remain low (as they will for several years to come) and energy prices don't tank (as they are unlikely to do given the global unrest in oil and gas producing regions).
I doubt it, but I do think you will see it and more as year-end approaches, especially if the China license is obtained. As for the number today, I would assume it will be good. They knew before they launched that they needed to beat 9MM, so I can't believe they launched without even being able to produce that many. Besides, the number today is not a GAAP number, so they can report it just about any way they want (pre-orders, orders in hand, shipments, stocking, etc.).
All miners were down, but not as much as VALE. Options could be a big part of the story, if there were a lot of $12.00 options expiring. That could be why the stock moved straight down to $12 and then bobbed up and down around $12 as those with interest in it being at and below that level fought it out. Yet, I think the Brazilian elections and China fears were the bad news that allowed such a fall to occur. I am still betting on a rebound as the weeks unfold with seasonal restocking of I/O helping pricing and Brazilian's electing a new government. Though America re-elected Obama and look how incompetent he is, so who knows.
Perhaps options, but I suspect day-traders were caught expecting the stock to rally into the close on all the great news as people built positions for Monday's release of the sales numbers, but when all the traders had to exit their positions at the end of the day there just weren't buyers to absorb them. I personally had 13,000 shares that I had no choice other than to sell and ended up taking a little over $101.30 after having just bought them a bit earlier at $101.70. Sometimes trades just don't work out and sometimes stocks go in directions that seem irrational. IMO though, Apple should go up in the coming weeks because the 6 demand is going to be huge, ASPs will rise, China license will be obtained, and people will begin to place some value on the watch when they realize all the holiday gift cards that people are going to buy to get the watch before it is even available.
It's gone up a lot in anticipation of this day, so wouldn't lose any sleep over it. When everyone over the age of 40 wants an iPhone and Apple Watch for the health implications, the next leg up will be very rewarding. I was a CEO in medical technology and what Apple is implementing here will both gain market share and expand the market to all those elderly who don't even have a smart phone, not to mention every health professional.
What management is doing meets their objectives and, as such, it will meet the objectives of unit holders over time. I am not capable of figuring out who got the better deal here, if anyone, but it's typical for a known seller to have to take a bit of a haircut (it's always better to be an unwilling seller to a motivated buyer). Still, I am glad to see the distribution further secured and expect to experience capital appreciation over time, so long as interest rates stay low and oil and natural gas prices don't go down too low. GLTA
Of course, you could be right. However, I believe the current price is a reasonable trade into the Brazilian elections and ahead of an anticipated rebound in IO pricing later in the year associated with higher seasonal demand. A weaker Real and the VALEMAX ships now being approved for south China ports should also help. Such an enormous short interest also provides some nice upside volatility with any good news (and there hasn't been any of that lately). So, call my crazy, buy I bought 120,000 shares for a trade today at $12.30 expecting the stock to rebound in the coming couple of months by 10% to 15%, if Roussef loses the election it could be 20% to 25%.