So long as you believe the distribution is secure and the Permian assets will be traded or sold (an announcement that should have a positive impact on the stock price and perhaps the distribution rate), then, any of these prices associated with a 10%+ distribution are good prices to buy IMO. That said, I have plenty of LINE and LNCO to satisfy me and just enjoy the distributions every month without much concern one way or the other where the price of the stock goes, so long as the fundamentals remain favorable (as they do currently IMO).
I do hope you are joking. NO analyst in their right mind would get caught dead citing SA articles in their research. They would get laughed out of the fraternity.
Kaiser is a mere child working for a fifth class fund that can't afford an experienced analyst. Now that everyone knows it, I doubt we will see any relationship between Kaiser tweets and LINE/LNCO stock price.
I never let myself get married to any investment and appreciate hearing the bear case for a long position and the bullish case for a short. However, I do get tired of hearing the amateurish ramblings of incompetence by Kaiser at Hedgeye and the ghost writers they encourage. At the same time, I owe them a debt of gratitude for having helped in the past allow me to get into LINE at lower prices. I have little confidence they can help me add to my position at lower prices because I think their 15 minutes of fame has expired. BTW, Apple is borrowing money to pay for their dividend and stock buyback. It's really no different. Sure, Apple has cash flow and money overseas that they don't want to repatriate for tax purposes. But, LINE has assets in the ground that they can swap or sell to achieve the same purpose. Kaiser needs to get some business experience and learn how to evaluate a balance sheet.
I admit not to reading the article because I wouldn't want to participate in funding such silliness. Yet, it's amazing how media can make things seem more than they are. Hedgeye is an irrelevant fund with a child as analyst in the energy sector because they can't afford an analyst with experience. I kinda get a kick out of the amateurish attempts they make for no other reason than to try to make a name for themselves and attract paying clients. Yet, if by some miracle after they have proven themselves entirely incompetent to date, if the stock goes down significantly because of any such an attack, I would comfortably add to my more than 160,000 unit position and thank them very kindly.
Jump on in, the water's fine. It's a very reasonable valuation with minimal downside risk as the 10% level of distribution probably puts a floor in the stock. Also, you have the near-term catalyst of a Permian transaction and a 10% tax-deferred distribution paid monthly. The business model remains intact, even if it didn't work out as well on the BRY deal as hoped. I certainly wouldn't miss the next distribution or the Permian deal "hoping" to see $27.99.
VALE is materially undervalued by any measure, but it has been stuck in a $12.50 to $15.00+ trading range for a while now. In my view, that makes it a perfect candidate to be overweight in with the extra weight in a trading position every time if falls and trading out of it every time it gets to $15+ while you wait for the core position to eventually get where it belongs which is something in the $20's IMO. Currently, I am still holding my 200,000 shares at about $14 for my core long position (held through 3 dividends, so it has actually paid the dividend) and my current trade is 85,000 shares at an average price of $13.45. It would be nice to catch a break with the Australian workers going on strike and helping support iron ore prices while nickel prices soar, but all in good time with our without a break. VALE management is doing all the right things and will ultimately be rewarded.
I think there are a lot of people, including many who manage a lot of other people's money, who really have no clue what they are doing. IMO, the only thing to do with LINE/LNCO is to go long and collect the distributions with the expectation that the stock will also appreciate over time. Or, just go elsewhere if tax deferred income is not your thing. However, the near-term potential for a major asset trade or sale that would be an upside catalyst for the stock would take shorting off the table for me. I did short Amazon at $400 and Twitter at $70 though. With those low hanging fruit, why anyone would spend their day shorting this is beyond comprehension to me. But, I get back to their are a lot of people managing a lot of money who have no earthly idea what they are doing.
You could be right. I have traded that range 3 times now while I hold my core position at $14.00. Between trading and 3 rounds of dividends, I have made good money in this stock and believe it will be $20+ in the coming year or two. However, I put on a $13.55 trade the other day and added to it at $13.35 today. While it could retrace to $12.50, I think $13.00 may have been the floor the other day and playing for a return towards $15 without falling to $12.50. Rising nickel prices, better than expected China data and any sign of a reversal in iron ore prices would make for a nice run here. Management is doing everything right and getting no credit for it to date. How Rio Tinto gets a higher valuation is amazing to me. GLTA
Yes. I also use Schwab and paid $3,000 on 200,000 shares, so same rate. Also, I seem to recall the foreign tax has been 10% in the past, but was 15% this time. Do you recall?
Having lived through AAPL going to $390, one can never appreciate just how low a stock (or in this case a group of stocks) can go when the market turns on them. I also recall EMC falling from $100 to $4 back in the tech bubble days. IMO, AMZN is a $150 to $250 stock today (if profits are going to be demanded).
Guess I have become comfortable being long because I didn't even realize tomorrow is the ex-date. So long as the distribution appears safe and there are upside opportunities (with no real downsides in sight), I am satisfied collecting the distribution and being long.
Very likely is the answer and a reason to buy LNCO v. LINE near-term, as the gap will correct as BRY shareholders exit over time. Let's face it, if they cared about distributions, they would not have been BRY shareholders in the first place.
As a newer long, I just want to see $700 because it's on the way to $1,000. If Apple launches a next significant new technology that sustains growth for a while and puts to bed the "lack of innovation" concern, just getting a normalized P/E v. the rest of the market puts the stock in the $800's.
so, I am pleased with the quarter. Surprised no mention of coverage ratio, but even if it was below 1.0X, they have enough assets to work through any issues as the year progresses. See no reason to do anything with my long position other than enjoy the monthly distributions and watch. I still think we are one or two quarters before we start really seeing the benefits of BRY and the sale or swap of other assets that will benefit the stock.
I was surprised with the IO price realized by VALE (and apparently they and the analysts were too). It caused revenue and cash flow to miss expectations. Yet, solid expense control led to in-line earnings. If the stock were trading in the $20+ range where it belongs, I would be quite disappointed in the implications of this performance on the near-term stock price. However, at $13, this stock is priced for failure. IMO, if IO prices rebound in the 2H14 like management believes and nickel prices climb as expected, combined with managements excellent job of continuing to cut costs, we should still be positioned to see a healthy rebound in the stock in the coming quarters. In the meantime, it is likely to keep bouncing around, so I will keep trading around my position, enjoy the dividends and wait for the run.