I do hope you are short since you speak with such conviction. It would be a shame to be so certain and not profit from it.
And, Apple was up big yesterday and the market was down. Not sure your theory holds. However, I do agree there are writing staffs for competitors and investors who want to beat Apple stock and image down at every turn. And, a lot of investors simply react rather than think. In my view, given the very favorable margin metrics for the 6/6+ and enormous demand expectations, the hiccup in the IOS 8 update rollout and people who buy the 6+ needing to know not to put it situations that will bend it are simply not major issues. But, if it creates a trading opportunity or buying opportunity, than, that's fine by me.
Sold out when it ran up recently because either 1) the deal goes through and between people selling a part of their holdings to cover the taxes and all the new stock hitting the market there will be substantial downside pressure on the stock, or 2) the deal falls through or becomes meaningfully less accretive and the stock gets hit. Either way, I want more on a pullback, if the facts still look good.
IMO it stays the same. They reiterated their financial goals just last week in the face of the lower IO prices. And, they are going to increase volume and reduce costs to offset any IO price declines, even though most project prices to move back up as we get into the restocking and higher demand season in the coming weeks. Still, I expect all miners will protect cash for dividends and otherwise hoard it to protect against any further price declines.
This is why I generally ignore analysts. Where was he when the stock was $15 a few months ago? Now, the stock is at $11 and he is bearish? Real helpful. Personally, I don't think anyone knows what supply, demand or price for IO will be in 2015 and certainly not looking out int 2016 and 2017.
It's actually a viable strategy so long as interest rates remain low (as they will for several years to come) and energy prices don't tank (as they are unlikely to do given the global unrest in oil and gas producing regions).
I doubt it, but I do think you will see it and more as year-end approaches, especially if the China license is obtained. As for the number today, I would assume it will be good. They knew before they launched that they needed to beat 9MM, so I can't believe they launched without even being able to produce that many. Besides, the number today is not a GAAP number, so they can report it just about any way they want (pre-orders, orders in hand, shipments, stocking, etc.).
All miners were down, but not as much as VALE. Options could be a big part of the story, if there were a lot of $12.00 options expiring. That could be why the stock moved straight down to $12 and then bobbed up and down around $12 as those with interest in it being at and below that level fought it out. Yet, I think the Brazilian elections and China fears were the bad news that allowed such a fall to occur. I am still betting on a rebound as the weeks unfold with seasonal restocking of I/O helping pricing and Brazilian's electing a new government. Though America re-elected Obama and look how incompetent he is, so who knows.
Perhaps options, but I suspect day-traders were caught expecting the stock to rally into the close on all the great news as people built positions for Monday's release of the sales numbers, but when all the traders had to exit their positions at the end of the day there just weren't buyers to absorb them. I personally had 13,000 shares that I had no choice other than to sell and ended up taking a little over $101.30 after having just bought them a bit earlier at $101.70. Sometimes trades just don't work out and sometimes stocks go in directions that seem irrational. IMO though, Apple should go up in the coming weeks because the 6 demand is going to be huge, ASPs will rise, China license will be obtained, and people will begin to place some value on the watch when they realize all the holiday gift cards that people are going to buy to get the watch before it is even available.
It's gone up a lot in anticipation of this day, so wouldn't lose any sleep over it. When everyone over the age of 40 wants an iPhone and Apple Watch for the health implications, the next leg up will be very rewarding. I was a CEO in medical technology and what Apple is implementing here will both gain market share and expand the market to all those elderly who don't even have a smart phone, not to mention every health professional.
What management is doing meets their objectives and, as such, it will meet the objectives of unit holders over time. I am not capable of figuring out who got the better deal here, if anyone, but it's typical for a known seller to have to take a bit of a haircut (it's always better to be an unwilling seller to a motivated buyer). Still, I am glad to see the distribution further secured and expect to experience capital appreciation over time, so long as interest rates stay low and oil and natural gas prices don't go down too low. GLTA
Of course, you could be right. However, I believe the current price is a reasonable trade into the Brazilian elections and ahead of an anticipated rebound in IO pricing later in the year associated with higher seasonal demand. A weaker Real and the VALEMAX ships now being approved for south China ports should also help. Such an enormous short interest also provides some nice upside volatility with any good news (and there hasn't been any of that lately). So, call my crazy, buy I bought 120,000 shares for a trade today at $12.30 expecting the stock to rebound in the coming couple of months by 10% to 15%, if Roussef loses the election it could be 20% to 25%.
It's against SEC regulations to "manage sales," yet that is exactly what Apple does every year at this time. They only produce the number of new phones they need to make their current quarter target. If they were to produce more and have orders for them, but not ship just to save the sales for the next quarter, that would be illegal. So, the fact that they are unable to ship all the orders is expected. I suspect that will be off backorder by the end of this next quarter........................unless they want to save more sales for the next.
A lot of $100 options expire today. Can't help but wonder if we won't see $100 sometime today.
Maybe. However, with all the $100 options on the table for tomorrow, I would be surprised if we don't see a battle at that level sometime tomorrow afternoon.
When my last watch broke, I didn't bother replacing it because I always had the time available on my phone. That said, I will buy the iWatch for the health features and convenience of not always depending upon pulling out my phone, including to pay for things with Apple Pay (which may have been the most financially exciting announcement today, if only we knew how to value it). I suspect a few tens of millions of other people will do the same.
Wouldn't touch Alibaba. Was CEO of a public company with dealings in China. Wouldn't trust any number out of China or a company from China. Could be why the offering documents keep changing as the US bankers keep finding out more truths.