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bbandassoc 42 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 8:44 AM Member since: May 31, 2011
  • Reply to

    Possibly time to re-up with the dip?

    by smaller_ik Mar 7, 2014 12:28 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Mar 7, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    I keep trading around my $14 long position. It seems the floor has been in the mid-to-upper $12 range. I bought on the last dip at $12.75 and sold at $14.40. I will wait and see if it hits the $12.75 level again before buying for another trade. GLTA

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Mar 4, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    China has reiterated they are determined to achieve 7.5% growth in 2014 which suggests that they will invest to make it happen and not worry quite so much about debt and austerity which has plagued VALE in recent weeks. This should be good for iron ore manufacturers and especially VALE since they are viewed as dependent upon China. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Excess of net cash

    by dancingbear2412 Feb 27, 2014 7:26 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 27, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    I see a lot of posts suggesting that the excess cash is needed to cover the additional shares issued in the BRY acquisition, but that is not exactly correct. They did not recognize BRY contributions in the cash flow beyond the amount of time they owed the new shares. So, the question is how much will a full quarter's cash flow contribution from the BRY deal be v. the added dilution. And, it should improve over time as synergies are realized. Still, I missed the call, so don't know if it was covered, but there must be a reason why they didn't increase it today.

  • Whisper EPS was for 50 cents or less so the 62 cents was positive, even if 2 or 3 cents below analysts' average. Cash flow of $6.6B was 10% higher than expectation while margin of 48% was in line. They will issue no debt in 2014 and plan to use any excess cash flow to pay additional dividends or buy-back stock.

    I was favorably surprised by the expectation for base metal cash flow contribution in 2014 of an incremental several billion dollars as well as the "green iron ore" program as another opportunity for VALE to realize higher prices than the norm.

    We should see some upside movement in the coming days IMO. One day, the valuation will have to reflect the performance and when it does this is a low- to mid-$20's stock.

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Feb 27, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    I'm not surprised given the run up recently that we are seeing some sell the news profit taking here. But fundamentally, the report is strong, so I am holding my LINE and adding to my LNCO position and looking forward to the next distribution. GLTA

  • How do they beat analyst estimates for revenue by $1B and miss by 3 cents on EPS? Perhaps when I read the details it will become clear, but on the first surface read, it's perplexing.

  • Reply to

    ok i'm confused

    by questioning_rabbitintellectual Feb 26, 2014 5:53 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 26, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    62 cents fully diluted and excluding one-time tax settlement and Rio Colorado hits. However, cash flow is a much more important number for VALE and it was up 49% YOY.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 26, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    Very strong increase in cash flow (+49%). Solid 8.5% increase in revenues to $13.6B. EPS, excluding non-recurring items, of 62 cents. I believe street EPS estimate was only 26 cents.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 26, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Last time, it hit the wire at 5:11 pm ET. Not sure how consistent they are though.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 24, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    I expect they will deliver a very solid quarter, solid guidance and an increase in the distribution to the previously contemplated $3.08. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Lnco looks like a buy here

    by lordofdoggtown Feb 12, 2014 8:52 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 13, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    The market may retest the recent correction on a macro level and could take LINE/LNCO with it regardless of the bands. However, I bought LNCO today for a trade into earnings (I am long LNCO in my Roth's and LINE in my trading account). Earnings should be strong, guidance should be strong and they may increase the distribution. GLTA

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Feb 10, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Should assure achievement of plan with the lower cost/higher value production.

  • The institutional holders will go with the ISS recommendation against Icahn's proposal. As such, it is dead at this point. That doesn't mean Icahn won't squawk until the vote is in to feed his ego, but the vote is not in doubt.

  • Reply to

    Appl buyback

    by wpk100 Feb 9, 2014 9:31 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Feb 9, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    The $12B was bought through institutions directly while the $2B was bought in the open market. Going to the institutions gave Apple access to large quantities of stock without materially impacting the open market price.

  • Reply to

    Dividend increase

    by saldon63 Jan 30, 2014 5:45 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jan 30, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    I think they have set the stage in prior remarks to announce their plans for the distribution at the call. So, they won't be mute on the subject. If they can comfortably offer and sustain an increase. However, they may have a rational for why they plan to delay an increase as well. Either way, I believe their is material SP appreciation potential in the near-term and whether the distribution is $2.90 or $3.09 shouldn't largely impact interest in the stock. Still, I think they will increase the distribution to $3.08 due to synergies from the BRY deal, in combination with an improving macro environment. GLTA

  • It seems Apple has been pursuing several new product categories simultaneously for a few years now. Mobile payments, wearables, TV, etc. Perhaps the reason no one can figure out which is coming out next is because they are all progressing along a similar timeline and what we are about to see are two or three new category entries in the coming quarters. Combined with the CM deal and the upgrade cycle and market share gains that should come with the iPhone 6, entry into a single new product category would be great, but what if we have entry into several new categories? GLTA

  • Reply to

    Cook bashers, haters

    by cardizemcd Jan 30, 2014 5:03 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jan 30, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    I happen to believe Cook is doing a solid job, except he hasn't delivered that new 'wow" product in a new category. But, those don't come along every day, so I am willing to be patient. If he comes through with his promise of a new category product this year and it happens to be a real winner, in addition to the value placed on the new opportunity the company will get a higher multiple on its current business as the stigma will be gone. Cook will suddenly be the golden boy. IMO, we will be pleasantly surprised and Apple will outperform expectations on its core business due to China Mobile, the wash through of the extended upgrade cycle in the U.S. by 2H14, and the market share gains and upgrade cycle that will be kicked off with the iPhone 6. I also think we will see Apple enter several new categories in the next 18 to 24 months because all the work they have been doing in several areas (mobile payments, wearables and the home) are likely to come together along the same timeline which is why no one can figure out which one is next (what if they are all next?). GLTA

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Jan 30, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    Apple has repurchased 5% of its shares in the past 2 quarters and generated cash in this past quarter alone that represents 5% of its market cap. China Mobile is a reality. The iPhone 6 will spur a tremendous upgrade cycle and increase market share. And, we are in the year of a new product category entry. I view this as a great opportunity to accumulate shares before it becomes clear that this is not a $500 stock anymore. GLTA

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jan 30, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    They should report a very strong quarter in February and the next one should be outstanding as well. Along the way, I would assume we will get the previously planned increase in the distribution to $3.08 (maybe even $3.10 just to give the appearance that the deal is even better than expected). May even here about some accretive asset swaps or purchases. Combined, we should see the valuation improve to the $40 range, maybe sooner than we think. GLTA

  • Reply to

    5th wave down will be complete soon!

    by laptopnotebookpc Jan 21, 2014 11:16 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jan 30, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    My history with VALE is that I am long 200,000 shares from about this price level and trade in and out of an additional 50,000 shares that I bought sub-$13, sold at $15.50 and repurchased at $12.75 the other day. IMO, there was a nice double bottom in the $12.50 to $12.75 range (triple bottom if you want go back a few years). I am hopeful we will have a nice rebound from here. If JP Morgan is correct about the impact of Chinese pollution controls on high-grade iron ore, like provided by VALE, then, we just may. Also, a little stimulus action out of China given their lower than wanted inflation in the face of slowing growth could be another near-term catalyst, if they don't start seeing some acceleration soon. GLTA

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