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Starbucks Corporation Message Board

bbandassoc 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2014 5:14 AM Member since: May 31, 2011
  • It would be helpful to investors to understand this issue re: iron ore that is sitting in China as collateral against loans that I suspect investors fear could hit the market in mass and drive the price of iron ore to new lows. This issue seems to be putting a lid on VALE stock as much as anything (fear of the unknown), so anything management could do to help investors reconcile this issue would be helpful.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Apr 28, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    This is not 2000 type action at all. The stock trades at a significant discount to the market, despite higher than average growth. There are numerous upcoming catalysts, including greater China Mobile results, next generation iPhones, new product categories, etc. Depending on exactly what the new product(s) is(are), the stock can easily go to $800+ given the reduction in shares outstanding and rotation of money from the low- or no-profit, high growth businesses to the AAPL's and MSFT's of the world.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Apr 28, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    I think it all depends upon what the next product category offering turns out to be. IMO, we are heading to $650 to $700 near-term just on the iPhone 6, expectation that China Mobile will ramp, and expectation that a next product category is coming. If the next product category offering rocks, then, I too think $800+ by year-end is in the cards.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Apr 28, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    Just a few days ago I told you this was heading to support at $290. Now, I can tell you that the upside if very, very limited, but the downside is still large. More likely, this will trade in a range for a very long time until management learns that profits matter or growth accelerates. In the meantime, one could short with better probability of success than going long. Or, and this is what I did, go long AAPL where if they introduce any new product of substance in the Fall (along with a larger iPhone 6), the stock is going to between $800 and $1,000 depending on the product and is likely to got to between $650 and $700 in anticipation.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Apr 28, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    Nicely done. After having trading in in the mid-$12's and out in the $15+ area 3 times, I took shares Friday at $13.55 (a bit early as it appears). I will take more, if it reaches mid-$12's. My $14 long position is obviously still under water, but between dividends and trading, this has been a nice winner for me to date. When it actually runs back above $20, it will be very nice. No hurry though so long as it keeps bouncing up and down 20%+, it will keep the trading money coming in. Suspect earnings may put a higher floor in this stock though. We shall see. GLTA

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Apr 28, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    JPM upped VALE PT to $22.50 this morning on nickel price increase expectations while the stock is down presumably due to Guinea. Obviously, the new Guinea government saw the graft opportunity that could be had by taking back and starting anew with the licenses, so that is what they have done. I am not entirely clear on the impact to VALE in the coming 3 to 5 years with the Guinea situation, however, it would seem they may have a $1.1B write-off offset by lower spending on the project which would not seem to amount to much overall. It would also seem they could have a claim against their partner who sold them the stake (though that could take years and amount to nothing). In the end, it doest seem the Guinea situation amounts to much and not sure that getting out of the Guinea investment doesn't suit the new CEO's strategy anyway.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Apr 25, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    Long as well, but low expectations for this quarter. Usually these large acquisitions take a couple of quarters to start showing up in the financials (especially one that is obviously not immediately accretive to earnings). I will take any good news that comes this period (and maybe next), but will expect good news in the back half of the year. GLTA

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Apr 25, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    AMZN is going down because of slowing sales growth and worsening profits (projecting loss in next quarter). It is likely on its way now to its support at about $290 IMO. I am an individual investor and shorted it, but covered at $325 to buy AAPL into their earnings. When it ran up towards $350 after earnings, I was going to short again at $350, but it didn't make it that far. The run in AMZN is over, at least for awhile and likely until they start showing either accelerated revenue growth and/or profits that a PE can be attached to.

  • if the market wants profits, we ain't giving them any. So.......stuff it. Stock will be down as the assault on revenue growth void of profits resumes. Personally, I covered my short at $525 yesterday and put the money into Apple into their earnings for my "play of the day......okay, year." If I didn't think AAPL was going much higher near-term, I would be looking to short AMZN again on this guidance, if it were to continue to climb much at all.

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