They have absolutely no intention of changing the distribution unless the SEC forces them to. So, I don't think we can read anything more into it since the SEC has not acted on the recent S-4/A filing.
The commonality we can all share on this board is our interest in LINE as an investment. It's a waste of time and energy to discuss politics, religion, etc. because those are mostly views held deeply based on what our parents and grandparents taught us to believe (in most cases) and not because of any special skill or knowledge any of have acquired over time or possess.
Unfortunately, I don't know the answer, but they keep saying the IRS would close and it would seem to me that the SEC is similar. Nonetheless, thanks for trying to ask a relevant question, as suddenly this board seems to be pre-occupied with politics. Hopefully, it will pass soon. GLTA
Agree. However, the advantage of these in-person conferences is that you can say a lot to the people who follow you closely with a properly placed grin, a smile, a nod, a good mood. It speaks volumes.
Focused presentation on the new acquisition, BRY deal, the distribution and their hedge position. Wonder if they will take questions? Guess we will see a release in the morning setting the ex-date for the distribution.
Considering the ease with which they could have bowed out of presenting at this meeting under the circumstances, I would think he has some very positive things to say. Clearly, management is focused on getting the BRY deal completed, so I would think they must believe this is an opportunity to help that process along. Yet, I don't think he will talk about the SEC situation, unless the outcome is already known or certain. GLTA
We could hear in the morning that the SEC has made the S-4/A effective. This would be logical since LINE made it the Record Date for the transaction after filing the S-4/A and in doing so suggested that they are on the same page with the SEC in the filing (presumably from discussions and negotiations they have had with the agency).
Another possibility is that the SEC simply doesn't respond and allows the S-4/A to become effective on its own which will happen after 30-days if there is no SEC comment. That would be about Oct. 19th.
A third possibility is that LINE/LINCO filed the S-4/A and set the Record Date simply to meet its obligations under the Merger Agreement with BRY and not because they have negotiated acceptable language with the SEC at all. The end date for the original Merger Agreement is October 31st. However, the end date can be extended under the circumstance where all the conditions of the merger have been met, except the S-4/A has not been deemed effective by the SEC. That said, I am not an attorney and don't know if it is plausible that LINE would take this course since it would seem that filing an S-4/A and setting the Record Date for a transaction under the current circumstances would be antagonistic towards the SEC (who holds all the cards), if no good faith negotiations have occurred between the parties with an honest attempt by LINE to accommodate the SEC's demands. Yet, in this scenario, the timeframe could be entirely unpredictable.
Personally, I think we have a reasonable chance of waking up to a news release in the morning that the S-4/A has been declared effective. If not, I believe it is forthcoming because I do not believe LINE would file the S-4/A without having negotiated the language with the SEC nor set a Record Date for the transaction. GLTA
If LINE pays out "all" of what it considers to be its distributable cash flow to unit holders, as I believe I read in the S-4, then, any incremental distributable cash flow from the BRY deal is accounted for in the increase in the distribution to $3.08. If so, I agree they could have said it better, but the immediate incremental financial benefit to unit holders of the BRY deal would seem to be properly represented as simply the increase in the distribution to $3.08 v. no BRY deal. Clearly, there are other benefits as well, like the increased likelihood that the distribution is safe, the enhanced ability to make further acquisitions, etc.
If the politicians don't screw up the market for everyone, we should start seeing VALE moving up again as we approach the ex-dividend date and earnings. Anticipating a very strong earnings report, it would seem those wanting to increase their position in advance of earnings would go ahead and do it in time to collect the dividend. And, one would think shorts don't want to hang around for either. The earnings report should solidify VALE's move back towards or above $20 in the next few weeks or months.
Wow. Did he really say that because it is does not represent at all what he is telling his Action Alerts subscribers. What he is telling them is that he is being disciplined in not owning a company with SEC issues, but he believes their assets are worth $40 per share (so they are cheap) and he believes the recent S-4 filing suggests the BRY deal will get done.
I don't follow. If you want the shorts out of the stock before the Record Date, you would announce S-4 earlier to force them out on news. Yet, my experience suggests that if LINE and LINCO agreed with the SEC that the recent changes to the S-4 would satisfy them and a Sept. 30th record date was appropriate, then, it would be typical that LINE/LNCO would get a clearance via Fax about 5 pm tonight.
Frankly, if he wants to gain credibility in the investment community, he will refrain from making such comments in the future. If he has something material to announce, he should announce it. If not, he should be patient and announce it when the time is right. He is not endearing himself in the investment community to talk about surprises.
Look at the operating results and expectations for the coming few quarters and ask yourself, "should this stock be at these levels?" The answer is clearly no IMO. So, I view weakness as a buying opportunity, though I am in sub-$14 for 200,000 shares already, so wouldn't add again unless it falls below my cost basis. Still, I think we run into or after earnings and break-out above the 200 day moving average and I think they raise the dividend back to where it was before the cut ($6B v. $4B) based on their strong cash flow and plans to invest less money.
There is the distinct possibility that we wake up Monday to an announcement that the S-4 has been declared effective by the SEC. The Company set Monday as the Record Date for the BRY deal. What I don't know is whether it's necessary that the S-4 be deemed effective before the Record Date; though certainly proxies won't be going out before an SEC clearance. Clearly, LINE/LNCO were either very optimistic in an SEC clearance by Monday, or just very hopeful. GLTA
Higher iron ore prices. Higher volume. Lower costs. And, analysts have them coming in below last quarter's numbers. Personally, I am looking for about $0.85 to $0.95 per share (adjusted for FX, of course). Cash flow should be outstanding. GLTA
First, do the math. If you get 1.25X shares per BRY share, you get 1.25X the distribution. So, a $3.00 distribution is essentially $3.75. Who knows if the distribution will be the current $2.90 or the proposed $3.08. But, you get 1.25X whatever it is for each BRY share you currently own.
Second, you will have no say in the deal. About 15 institutions and mutual funds own most of BRY stock. So, they will think about the decision based on the fact that they are stuck in an illiquid stock with no future and a price that is the same it was 5 years ago.
Third, if the S-4 is approved, the current differential could disappear overnight. BRY and LNCO trade very little. With a $4B deal on the table, it might just be that a few people would be motivated to get the stocks where they need to be to secure a positive vote.
There is a lot of time between now and when a vote will occur in stock terms. When the S-4 is approved, the stock price differentials could move dramatically. Given how little these stocks trade, a couple of motivated parties could move them dollars in a day. Given a $4B+ deal, I suspect there might just be one or more such parties who will assure the prices are where they need to be when and if the time comes.
No paperwork is sent for a vote until after the record date on September 30th, or whenever the record date ends up being based when the SEC declares the S-4 effective.
Both may be right. The SA guys appear to be right on the non-substantive minutia of fine accounting principles and Kramer appears he will be right on the substantive issues that the distribution is safe and the BRY deal will ultimately get done. Time will tell.