I sold my long position near $95 and shorted into the AMZN event. Went back long on AAPL yesterday at $91.50 and will now hold that position and return to adding day-trading long positions on particular days of the week and news/events. Shorted AMZN post-event for a trade. Will continue to short it on runs up since Bezos has already said they will lose money in the upcoming quarter and probably several quarters to come with the phone expenses.
Actually, you are right. Since Jan 2, on 89% of the days the high is higher than the prior day close. That just means that the spread is more favorable if it opens lower. On Friday, the probability is 83% that the high of the day will be higher than the prior close. Still, you don't know what the high will be, but the average for Fridays is about $0.45 higher than the prior close and for all days it's $0.67. Monday is the best day to buy at a low point on Friday, in the pre-market or at the open as there has been only one Monday all year to date where the high didn't exceed the prior Friday close and the average is $1.10 higher than the prior close. GLTA
AAPL can't do anything about it. It would be an SEC issue, but look at all the manipulation that occurs that they opt to ignore. The stock market is basically an organized crime and the manipulation is systematic and engrained in the process. It's so pervasive that there is probably nothing that could be done about it, even if they chose to try.
I wouldn't waste any time worrying about what a sell side analyst has to say. They may be short. They may be wanting to get their clients into VALE at a lower price. Buy side and independent research is the only research of value. That said, I really don't care what VALE does over the next few weeks or months. I believe it will be $25+ sometime over the next couple of years and that's good enough for me.
You are looking at the wrong number. Look at the 4G growth with China Mobile. It's a rocket! But, you probably know that.
So, if u don't own it, are u short? Surely u aren't wasting your valuable time here as a public service. I am long over 100,000 shares and have been since about 50% ago and will be for the next 50% that is coming this next 12 months. And, I have doubled my gains with trading. So, if you are sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing other than talking on this message board, you truly need to learn how to make money IMO.
Nothing like a little good news out of China to get VALE headed up. If it becomes apparent that China is on the mend and not heading for a hard landing in 2015 (current thinking), the shorts will start covering in haste.
Some thoughts. First, the short thesis is that China is heading for a hard landing in 2015. The latest data out of China over the past couple of months challenges that thesis. Second, all the talk about the iron ore sitting in ports as financing collateral putting continued pressure on the price is also not proving to be true. The price has actually been coming back up into the $90's in recent weeks from the mid-$80;s suggesting this thesis may not be true either. Third, considering all of the short volume in VALE, the moment the thesis shows cracks for shorting, it's a race to get out first because, if you don't, the price could be much much higher before you do with so many shares short.
I hold nearly 200K units in various accounts. Having purchased my position last summer on the fall, I am very pleased with management. While they perhaps got overly aggressive with put accounting and set themselves up for the bear attack, it was the bear attack with the resulting SEC inquiry that spoiled the BRY deal. Since that time, they have done the right things with the cards they hold IMO and the environment remains constructive (high commodity prices, low interest rates, plenty of acquisition targets) for them to implement their strategy. I suspect we will see your $35 to $37 objective this year. However, to get back to $42, it will likely take an increase in the distribution and a general expectation that further increases will continue in the future. I just don't see this stock trading at less than an 8% distribution rate. An 8% distribution today would be a stock price of $36.25, so that may be a cap without further distribution increases or other materially favorable news, but that's quite a bit higher than we are today. GL
I do not understand it and that's why I added LNCO to my holdings when it dropped to $26 a while back. It seems to me they should be trading in a much closer proximity to each other and that LNCO is the better buy at the moment. The only reasons LNCO would trade less than LINE would seem to me to be 1) tax implications, 2) BRY sellers and 3) general composition of holders. My impression, perhaps wrong, is that LNCO is held by more professionals while LINE is held by more retail holders. The pros may be slower to get back into a stock with a sordid recent history.
No surprise here. They sue just because the stock dropped on an SEC inquiry. It's a race to see who gets to represent the class, should one ever be awarded. When it turns out the SEC doesn't come up with anything, there is no longer a basis for the suit. The attorneys were just going for a settlement anyway and hoped never to find themselves in an actual suit that cost them time and money. I wish we would have some reforms that forced those making these frivolous suits pay when they lose. It would greatly reduce the taxpayer expense for such waste.
Actually, most of these large deals are followed by a down period of 3 to 6 months, likely due to all the stock that hits the market after the deal closes. I like the deal though and, if there is weakness in the coming months, I will gladly buy more ABBV.
The G20 is discussing tackling what they claim is a $57 trillion global infrastructure deficit by loosening the rules relating to such entities as insurance companies and pensions to more readily fund such projects. They claim doing so would quickly increase global growth about 2% annually. IF they could make progress along these lines, it would seem any announcement of such would cause VALE to move up aggressively. Regardless, the magnitude of the problem would seem to support VALE stock over time. I found article on AAPL site, as they were mentioned it in relating to taxation.
Not uncommon to see a stock retreat after announcing a big deal and going into a quiet period. In this case, there is the backdrop of political grandstanding about inversions in general (though I doubt anyone really thinks Congress will act before this deal is done). Still, we are not likely to go much higher (and may go lower) before the deal is done and the stock that gets put in the hands of those who don't want to hold it are flushed through. I did note Gonzalez said there would be a large stock buyback upon completing the deal. That said, I will add on any weakness because this will be a $70+ stock later in 2015 IMO.
There are two major influences on VALE stock price. First, there are the macroeconomics surrounding iron ore, including price, demand, supply, etc. Second, there is the inflow and outflow of monies into and out of Brazil. For quite awhile, money has been flowing out of Brazil ETFs and other investments due to the government. Shorts piled on businesses, like VALE, to where it is one of the most shortest stocks around. However, with the recent government stimulus and upcoming elections, money is flowing back into Brazilian ETFs. This has the shorts somewhat caught should things to continue to improve. VALE is grossly undervalued and could rise 25%+ just to be valued equal to its peers, unrelated to iron ore. On the iron ore front, while prices may not cooperate for some time, China is improving and VALE is now increasing supply along with much lower operating costs. They will do just fine in this environment until price increases again. The smaller players with higher costs will get squeezed out along the way creating demand for the larger, lower cost suppliers, albeit at lower prices than in the past.
Seems to me they had a reasonable quarter considering I/O pricing, but their guidance is quite bullish with projected higher volumes, higher prices, and lower cap-ex expenditure. Perhaps this was the trough quarter? GLTA
You must have missed the results and call, so let me fill you in. Cash flow was up and already sufficient to cover the dividend. Cash flow is forecast to increase further in 2H14 due to higher volume, lower cap-ex and anticipated higher I/O prices. More likely to see a special additional dividend than a cut.
If I'm not mistaken, they go ex-dividend tomorrow and we are in a sell the news market at the moment, so I would think it would take a very strong report for them to be green tomorrow. For me, I will be satisfied if they say nothing that causes me concern re: the viability of the business model and that they are making progress with the BRY and DVN deals with an improving pay-out ratio. Otherwise, I will enjoy my monthly distributions and enjoy the show. What the stock does is not my primary concern. GLTA
The 38% cut in subsidies announced last evening will hurt Apple in China and with all three carriers cutting subsidies at the governments demand it could take a lot of wind out of the sails. Still, CM will get iPhone 6 in the first round.