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Vale S.A. Message Board

bbandassoc 67 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: May 31, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Earnings Response

    by recombinantman 21 hours ago
    bbandassoc bbandassoc 19 hours ago Flag

    Not uncommon to see a stock retreat after announcing a big deal and going into a quiet period. In this case, there is the backdrop of political grandstanding about inversions in general (though I doubt anyone really thinks Congress will act before this deal is done). Still, we are not likely to go much higher (and may go lower) before the deal is done and the stock that gets put in the hands of those who don't want to hold it are flushed through. I did note Gonzalez said there would be a large stock buyback upon completing the deal. That said, I will add on any weakness because this will be a $70+ stock later in 2015 IMO.

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Jul 16, 2014 5:14 AM Flag

    The G20 is discussing tackling what they claim is a $57 trillion global infrastructure deficit by loosening the rules relating to such entities as insurance companies and pensions to more readily fund such projects. They claim doing so would quickly increase global growth about 2% annually. IF they could make progress along these lines, it would seem any announcement of such would cause VALE to move up aggressively. Regardless, the magnitude of the problem would seem to support VALE stock over time. I found article on AAPL site, as they were mentioned it in relating to taxation.

  • Reply to

    no reason to go down

    by helpallaretaken Jul 14, 2014 8:50 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jul 14, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Actually, most of these large deals are followed by a down period of 3 to 6 months, likely due to all the stock that hits the market after the deal closes. I like the deal though and, if there is weakness in the coming months, I will gladly buy more ABBV.

  • Reply to

    Class Action Lawsuit Dismissed

    by chris.trendle Jul 9, 2014 7:29 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jul 9, 2014 8:09 AM Flag

    No surprise here. They sue just because the stock dropped on an SEC inquiry. It's a race to see who gets to represent the class, should one ever be awarded. When it turns out the SEC doesn't come up with anything, there is no longer a basis for the suit. The attorneys were just going for a settlement anyway and hoped never to find themselves in an actual suit that cost them time and money. I wish we would have some reforms that forced those making these frivolous suits pay when they lose. It would greatly reduce the taxpayer expense for such waste.

  • Reply to

    $1.60 difference in the price of LINE vs: LNCO

    by sandra888us Jul 7, 2014 10:09 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jul 9, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    I do not understand it and that's why I added LNCO to my holdings when it dropped to $26 a while back. It seems to me they should be trading in a much closer proximity to each other and that LNCO is the better buy at the moment. The only reasons LNCO would trade less than LINE would seem to me to be 1) tax implications, 2) BRY sellers and 3) general composition of holders. My impression, perhaps wrong, is that LNCO is held by more professionals while LINE is held by more retail holders. The pros may be slower to get back into a stock with a sordid recent history.

  • Reply to

    Just how Looong??

    by gardnergallery Jul 9, 2014 1:55 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jul 9, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    I hold nearly 200K units in various accounts. Having purchased my position last summer on the fall, I am very pleased with management. While they perhaps got overly aggressive with put accounting and set themselves up for the bear attack, it was the bear attack with the resulting SEC inquiry that spoiled the BRY deal. Since that time, they have done the right things with the cards they hold IMO and the environment remains constructive (high commodity prices, low interest rates, plenty of acquisition targets) for them to implement their strategy. I suspect we will see your $35 to $37 objective this year. However, to get back to $42, it will likely take an increase in the distribution and a general expectation that further increases will continue in the future. I just don't see this stock trading at less than an 8% distribution rate. An 8% distribution today would be a stock price of $36.25, so that may be a cap without further distribution increases or other materially favorable news, but that's quite a bit higher than we are today. GL

  • Reply to

    Why has Vale been going up recently?

    by cheetah779920 Jul 3, 2014 12:46 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jul 4, 2014 7:07 AM Flag

    Some thoughts. First, the short thesis is that China is heading for a hard landing in 2015. The latest data out of China over the past couple of months challenges that thesis. Second, all the talk about the iron ore sitting in ports as financing collateral putting continued pressure on the price is also not proving to be true. The price has actually been coming back up into the $90's in recent weeks from the mid-$80;s suggesting this thesis may not be true either. Third, considering all of the short volume in VALE, the moment the thesis shows cracks for shorting, it's a race to get out first because, if you don't, the price could be much much higher before you do with so many shares short.

  • Reply to

    xdate

    by bobbyjopro Jul 2, 2014 5:51 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jul 2, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Take the record date and subtract 3 trading days.

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Jul 1, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Nothing like a little good news out of China to get VALE headed up. If it becomes apparent that China is on the mend and not heading for a hard landing in 2015 (current thinking), the shorts will start covering in haste.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 26, 2014 10:12 PM Flag

    So, if u don't own it, are u short? Surely u aren't wasting your valuable time here as a public service. I am long over 100,000 shares and have been since about 50% ago and will be for the next 50% that is coming this next 12 months. And, I have doubled my gains with trading. So, if you are sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing other than talking on this message board, you truly need to learn how to make money IMO.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 23, 2014 8:57 PM Flag

    You are looking at the wrong number. Look at the 4G growth with China Mobile. It's a rocket! But, you probably know that.

  • Reply to

    UBS Says $10-$11, then if that is so,

    by citioec Jun 23, 2014 10:25 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 23, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    I wouldn't waste any time worrying about what a sell side analyst has to say. They may be short. They may be wanting to get their clients into VALE at a lower price. Buy side and independent research is the only research of value. That said, I really don't care what VALE does over the next few weeks or months. I believe it will be $25+ sometime over the next couple of years and that's good enough for me.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 20, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    AAPL can't do anything about it. It would be an SEC issue, but look at all the manipulation that occurs that they opt to ignore. The stock market is basically an organized crime and the manipulation is systematic and engrained in the process. It's so pervasive that there is probably nothing that could be done about it, even if they chose to try.

  • Reply to

    lower opens are the best....

    by liveup40 Jun 20, 2014 9:16 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 20, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Actually, you are right. Since Jan 2, on 89% of the days the high is higher than the prior day close. That just means that the spread is more favorable if it opens lower. On Friday, the probability is 83% that the high of the day will be higher than the prior close. Still, you don't know what the high will be, but the average for Fridays is about $0.45 higher than the prior close and for all days it's $0.67. Monday is the best day to buy at a low point on Friday, in the pre-market or at the open as there has been only one Monday all year to date where the high didn't exceed the prior Friday close and the average is $1.10 higher than the prior close. GLTA

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 20, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    I sold my long position near $95 and shorted into the AMZN event. Went back long on AAPL yesterday at $91.50 and will now hold that position and return to adding day-trading long positions on particular days of the week and news/events. Shorted AMZN post-event for a trade. Will continue to short it on runs up since Bezos has already said they will lose money in the upcoming quarter and probably several quarters to come with the phone expenses.

  • bbandassoc by bbandassoc Jun 18, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    No way on God's green earth I would stand up and proudly hold up a smartphone at this stage of the product cycle like it's an accomplishment. If the stock hits $350, I'm all over it again for the ride back down to $290. More losses will not help AMZN shareholders. However, I do appreciate the opportunity to get back into AAPL at a little bit lower price on its way to $150!

  • Reply to

    Too many short , vale could go under 10

    by cuiabab Jun 12, 2014 10:40 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 15, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    Hope so. Would be nice to buy more under $10. It would make the run back up to the mid-$20's where this stock belongs more profitable.

  • Reply to

    were almost ready to SQUEEZE to 33 FAST!

    by tonyiv1 Jun 13, 2014 3:23 PM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 15, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    So long as the environment remains constructive for LINE to deliver on their strategy and the business continues to develop favorably, I am comfortable just enjoying my monthly distributions regardless of stock price gyrations. However, I must admit that I can't help but scratch my head at the level of short interest in this stock. I am not against shorting stocks and do at times, but shorting this stock today is about as dumb as investing gets IMO.

  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 13, 2014 7:18 AM Flag

    The analysts missed last quarter because they aren't equipped to estimate OUS markets. Apple may very well continue to surprise so long as China and other markets OUS keep growing faster than historically.

  • Reply to

    Just sold my Apple shares & bought Amazon

    by youbgone Jun 11, 2014 6:59 AM
    bbandassoc bbandassoc Jun 11, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Good luck, but get out of AMZN if it runs into the event. Lot of people waiting for the run-up so they can short AMZN, including me. The theme of AMZN has not changed. They are determined to lose money and the marketplace has said they won't accept that any longer. While they are getting a reprive for now, the selling will resume in haste post-launch of the smartphone because no one will want to stick around for the loss they will report in the upcoming quarter and the warning of continued losses they will announce (since the smartphone launch will be very expensive for a long time). It's a $250 stock, or lower, though they may continue to find support around $290. I sold my AAPL yesterday at $94.95, but will get back in soon. It is going to $120+ before year-end IMO. No one is valuing their new products and they will have one or more of substance in the Fall.

VALE
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