all the majors drastically cut investments and the global economy expands. Over time, can't imagine this not leading to substantive increase in the price of commodities and firms like VALE who experience dramatically reduced operating expenses and potentially substantively higher prices could make new all-time highs in a couple of years. GLTA
Companies with sustainable 15% growth rates often trade at a P/E 2X the growth rate (30X in this case). OSIS has the "warrant" attached that with any airport related terrorist activity; their stock shoots up. If you look at recent history on this stock in a bull market mind you, it seems to want to trade in the $70 to $80 range, but keeps getting knocked down by management missteps. At some point, investors will be scared to hold it at the higher prices (I never did, but did short at $80 about a year ago and got lucky wight heir last misstep for a nice quick gain). Now though, I did go long because I think the idea that TSA will ban them from future bidding is highly unlikely under the circumstances and the stock will ultimately move back up, if that becomes apparent. GLTA, long or short so long as you're making money.
Substantive investors don't take these lawsuits seriously. It's more advertising for the firms than anything material. In 99%+ of cases, if they even get a class established and designated the lead, they settle for a pittance. They don't want the expense to actually pursue anything. They are ambulance chasers.
Made a lot of money shorting this stock the last time they had a major fall and haven't visited it since (which means I missed the run back up). However, I went long today because this situation makes no sense. An unauthorized parts change (while a breach of contract) is not a material issue if the part was truly tested. If our government will actively reduce the competitiveness of bids at taxpayer expense just to punish OSIS for an unauthorized parts change, then, they are as out of control as it appears OSIS may be. I realize it's not OSIS' only offense, but I just don't see this playing out as an Armageddon scenario and will average down, if it goes down from here. GLTA
Perhaps, or we could simply have to wait until tax selling season ends. Either way, the stock seems poised for a good run soon.
No cause for worry about dividend in month 2 and 3 of a period. The board approves the dividend for the quarter upfront, payable monthly. So, when the first month of the quarter is announced, you can rest assured the next two months have already been approved by the Board at the same rate.
I feel for you. I had a short in for TSLA at $195. I stopped at $194.50. Then, I put a short in on TWTR at $46 and Schwab had no shares, even though shares were reported to be widely available.
If it runs this morning, I will add to my low-$29's short to average up. Weak guidance, impending dilution likely from a next round of financing, and profit-taking should combine to bring this one back in before the end of the year. If not, cover and move on one day. You win most, you lose a few is the idea anyway.
the institutions control this one. So, who knows. The analysts may all raise targets since they are in the tough spot of raising to maintain their buy ratings in hopes of participating in the next round of financing, or lowering their rating and being excluded. It's the reality they live in. Still, I took out a short in the low-$29's just for kicks.
The risk is with deflation if the Fed let's any gas off the peddle, not inflation. Higher rates are not necessarily in our future anytime soon.
Seem to still be traders in this stock and no likely catalyst until the deal is voted on (which is a lock). Could be February when they report year-end results and give insight into the distribution plan for 2014 before there is any notable catalyst; other than the fact this should be a $35+ stock now. With the risk/reward now very favorable at the $30 level, it's easy for me to be patient. I personally think they will get the costs out necessary with the two acquisitions to up the distribution in February to no less than the previously committed $3.08. If the stocks not at $35 before February, a solid Q413 and a distribution hike should get it there (if the politicians don't mess up the entire market, of course). GLTA
Tried to short shares twice towards end of trading yesterday at Schwab. Got a message stating that they were canceling order per my request. I made no such request. I called and they said Schwab has no TWTR shares available to short. The annoying thing was that any other time no shares have been available to short in a security, the cancelation message has said so.
Not necessarily, but I do think it means that even the SEC doesn't expect anything material to come out of the inquiry. I continue to believe the "worst" that happens is that LINE is forced to restate their accounting for the put hedges. And, since such an action would not impact their business model or distribution, it shouldn't have any meaningful impact (other than the brief moment following the announcement, if any) on the stock price.
Good points. I do need to have my accountant check into the state tax issues, especially for California since BRY is bringing significant California resources.
It would seem more logical to me that LINE would trade slightly higher than LNCO as the norm to account for the NPV of its tax advantages. Yet, it seems LNCO always trades higher.
That's the kind of volume one would typically see when a company is added to an index, like the S&P 500. But, maybe there was just a large negotiated trade.
Bought more today on the premise that VALE is down on ETF activity unrelated to its own fundamentals. It was a great quarter, China economy is improving and they have a solid strategy to continue to deliver results. No matter the outcome of the tax issue (supposedly known by Nov. 29th), eliminating this overhang should be positive for the stock leading into their Dec. 2nd analyst day. GLTA
You are joking, right. Why have the analysts grossly underestimated VALE's past 3 quarters of results? Why were the analysts last year projecting I/O prices of less than $100 this year? Why were they talking about a hard landing in China? Perhaps it's because they have no clue what's going to happen in the future. But, if you believe them, you should not own VALE. Yet, one of the better ones, JPM says VALE is worth $25.
In my view, despite increased I/O supply, prices are likely to remain relatively stable on increasing global demand in 2014. And, VALE in particular will grow operating cash flow in 2014 due to further cost reductions and increasing volume in a stable price environment. Near term, It appears a best case scenario may come out of China this weekend as inflation is below target and industrial output much higher than expected. And, when the Brazil tax overhang is put behind them on November 29th (regardless of the outcome), the December 2nd analyst meeting should be the kick-off to another leg up in the stock. IMO, this is a $25 to $30 stock in 2014 and putting my money where my mouth is I own 200,000 shares at an average price of $14. GLTA
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I look at it this way. When it looked like the SEC might never clear the S-4 and the distribution was in jeopardy due to a couple of weak quarters, the stock traded in the mid-to-upper $20 range. With the S-4/A cleared, we now know LINE has access to the capital markets again. And, the BRY deal, while perhaps expensive is said to be cash flow positive, along with a solid quarter and guidance should further secure, if not enhance, the distribution. So, regardless of the way the stock trades in the next couple of months, unless we get a negative surprise from the SEC or the deal, we should head back up over time into the mid-$30's and move on from there, so long as interest rates stay low and oil prices reasonably high. In the meantime, enjoy the monthly distributions. GLTA
Sounds like worst case is $11B over 10 years or about 5% to 6% of current annual cash flow. And, the upside appears to be the rumored settlement that they could reduce the burden 80%, if they pay $2.2B up-front. Seems to me that given results, worst case is already more than priced in and upside to best case could be substantial.