Read an interesting tidbit about the election process in Brazil. It seems TV ad time is permitted based on a party's representation in Parliament which has Rousseff with a large advantage over Silva, despite a close race. However, in a run-off election, TV ad time will be split equally. It would seem that if Silva is running a very close race with minimal TV ad time allowed, she should have a very solid shot to win the run-off given a level playing field.
This Apple long has made a few million since low $400's pre-split. And, when the stock is $150 next year, it will be a few more million. So, why you crazies want to destroy this board with inane BS is probably because you missed the run, or missed the run, but held on for the prior fall just to panic at the bottom.
Not one of your better analysts. I just put in AH order for 15,000 shares at $99.00. Got about a third of them so far. The logic stated is that Apple is out of surprises. Who needs surprises when you have all that they have going on. You just have to be able to do the math and investors will go nuts over their strong margins.
Could it be that LINE is held in large part by retirees who panic (just as they did during the SEC debacle) and on rather lightly traded volume on a day no one is looking to buy to provide support, the downside is rather large. Just a thought.
Good. I don't recall if they are entirely done with their swaps and sales, but they are largely done and can now focus on cash flow from current positions and accretive acquisitions moving forward.
How do you figure the positive impact on net earnings (or cash flow for that matter)? Just curious if you know because I don't have a grasp of the income and cash flowing from the various locations, only the total business. And, depending upon how these perform vs. what they now have left will determine whether it is accretive to earnings or cash flow. With the swaps to date, they have been quick to say with each swap that they are accretive to net cash available for distribution and I haven't seen that here yet. Thanks
This thing is so heavily shorted that I would expect we might see some covering into the election run-off (assuming there is one), the dividend ex-date, and earnings (since VALE has already stated at conferences that they will meet their financial objectives with non-IO products and higher IO volumes overcoming lower IO prices). Historically, everyone knows now that this thing tends to run up after the elections, regardless of who wins.
As an outsider to Brazil, it would seem logical to me that a vote for Silva was a vote for change and against Dilma and the vast majority would now vote for Neves. In addition, with Neves being allowed equal TV ad time as Dilma for the run-off, it would seem he has the chance to more effectively get his message out and improve his momentum and even take some votes from Dilma. The only advantage it would seem Dilma has is she can now hone her message towards Neves.
VALE has traded entirely on the election and IO prices of late, but they seem to be doing some really great things internally. For one, they just inked a couple of deals in anticipation of China re-allowing VALEMAX ships into ports. Does anyone know the value of this to VALE? I tried to calculate it based on percent of business going to China and saving $7 per metric ton on shipping and came up with more than $1B (about $1.25B actually), but I don't know that I am considering all the relevant facts that would go into calculating it. If VALE has stated the value, I don't recall. Anyone know?
I read 100M with 200M more to come out of the 400M remaining in China. And, there are other high-cost producers elsewhere. If you add up all of the increased production from the majors and the amount of production expected to exit, I don't see the huge surpluses that the analysts keep talking about. What I see is a company like VALE with 50% higher volume in 3 years, with significantly lower costs, reduced capital investment and perhaps even higher prices. While the near-term is uncertain, the future looks pretty good to me.
I have no idea the time-frame, but the massive short holdings in this stock with a negative macro (both IO prices and China growth) may hold us back for awhile. Maybe we bounce a bit, especially with any favorable election polls or result and any improvement in China or IO prices. But, to fundamentally move into the $20's and $30's will take time for VALE to grow supply, people to feel IO prices and China slowing have bottomed (if not moving up). When the shorts cover, it will be quick, whether in your timeframe, or some other.
Unfortunately, when there is a heavily shorted stock there is also a heavy dose of negative misinformation and analyst downgrades unrelated to reality. I had to laugh this morning when I saw Renaissance (a group with absolutely zero street credibility whatsoever) downgraded VALE to sell with a $10 PT. I can only assume they have short interest and seeing the stock look like i might rebound here felt compelled to try to stop it because no one who can add would forecast a $10 PT on a company with growing volume, declining costs, declining cash needs for capital investments and what everyone is projecting of stable to modestly higher IO prices.
LINE has never cut dividend. Personally, I just bought more LNCO at $26. With most of LINE's production hedged and the deals they have completed, the dividend should be safe and these prices will look really good in the not too distant future. Besides, in 2 years, collect more than 20% in dividends and likely much higher stock price.
Bought 25K LINE at $26 for trading account and LNCO at $25.42 (1K for mom) and $26 (9,500 for wife).....won't tell wife until above $26 though.
Let me give it a try. I bought more LINE today at $26 and LNCO at $25.42. I now hold more than 215K units in various accounts. Why? LINE is valued on a variety of factors. The oil and gas in the ground, as you say, has a life of many years. So, the value of that combined asset does not materially change due to short-term fluctuations in commodity prices. Also, as an MLP, investors are most interested in cash flow. With the majority of production hedged for quite awhile and the deals being made to reduce costs, cash flow should continue to improve (and maybe we will get lucky with a cold winter and higher NG prices). Finally, the business model is to make accretive acquisitions over time to increase cash flow. Interest rates are likely to remain low for quite some time, even if they rise some, and there is a very large pool of potential deals. In the meantime, so what if the stock trades at $27 or $25 or whatever for a while. From my perspective, I am happy to collect my monthly distributions operating under the belief that the paper return will be there one day as well.
The Fed's expressed concern for the risks of a strong dollar in their minutes will likely positively impact all commodity prices for a while; assuming the US$ retreats as it should. And, as we know, it seems no matter what VALE does operationally right now, it trades with IO prices. Perhaps if we could get a nice run of better prices (back towards $90 with a weaker dollar and seasonal restocking), the market would recognize that VALE's increased volumes and lower costs are truly remarkable and the SP is absurdly low.
Their expressed concern re: the risks of a stronger dollar should boost all commodity prices. And, it's the commodity price risk that has the stock down to levels not seen since the SEC was involved, the BRY deal was uncertain, and the payout ratio was .91X. IF we can just witness a bit of a decline in the US$, a stabilization of oil and NG prices, and the expectation of oil and gas prices reversing, then, there is no reason to remain at these stock price levels with all the favorable deals that have been done, the SEC gone, and the payout ratio solidly above 1.1X.