I don't give much credence to these SA articles, but I do expect the Raymond James analyst knows what he is doing when he claims the distribution is safe with the new approach to calculating it. Someone else suggested on this board that Goldman Sachs has concluded the same thing, though I have yet to find that one. GLTA
Maybe. Rather than shorts, however, I think you have a lot of good people who worked really hard for their money and depend on it for retirement who have invested for the yield and are easily scared out of their positions when you combine new, confusing information with a precipitously declining stock price.
In my view as a former CEO of a public company having dealt with government agencies, it appears to me that the Company has accepted a lot of things that have no material effect on their business to satisfy and agency that wanted a pound of flesh. I say this knowing Raymond James said the changes would have no impact on the distribution (and they must have confirmed this with management before saying it publicly). I also say this because if the distribution were in jeopardy, they would not even bother to try to proceed with the BRY deal. IMO, when Goldman and others come out supporting the idea that these changes to language are not material and do not impact the distribution, the stock will return to where it was a couple of days ago and head towards the low $30's again.
Unless expectations have changed, they are lower than VALE delivered last quarter when it would seem apparent they will deliver more than last quarter.
I bought another 20K at $27 today. My view is that LINE has a secure 11% distribution with the potential for significant near-term share price upside with the BRY deal. If the BRY deal goes away, the stock may get hit, but it's still undervalued for its assets and would recoup its losses over time while continuing the distribution. Let's face it. They built this company on acquisitions and, if not the BRY deal, there will be others. Also, the risk language in their filing strikes me as standard and, IMO, they would not even bother filing the BRY deal if they didn't believe the SEC issues were behind them. In other words, why would BRY shareholders approve the deal for stock, if the SEC issues were a real overhang and why would LINE expect them to?
And all the noise seems to come from those who miraculously announce they just shorted at the recent top. It's the nature of boards when there is no news to support intelligent conversation. As the next quarterly report approaches, the stock will go up because it's pretty well baked in that they will report outstanding EPS (FX adjusted) and cash flow. I still think we see $20 by year-end with most of the run from here coming as earnings approach and pass. GLTA long or short.
Maybe, but either way, monies will be moving out of FB short-term to fund the Twitter action IMO.
I still like FB over time, but I did put a short on at $45.25 because the billions to be raised in the Twitter IPO have to come from somewhere and, as most like to remain diversified, FB at these levels is a likely place for people to book some gains and move their money to participate in the Twitter IMO. GLTA
Expected analyst updates this morning, until I saw the acquisition news. Obviously, the company gave the analysts a heads-up yesterday that they may want to wait for pending additional news before putting out reports. At this point, hard to say if analyst updates will start before Monday, as most like to save positive reports for early in the week, but could see one or two updates this afternoon or in the morning. They should help when they come. GLTA
Actually, you are wrong about that. There are some very wealthy people on these boards. GLTA
I would think we would wake up to updates from one or more analysts. And, since the "credible" analysts have all remained constructive even during this period of adversity, I would think they would be highly motivated to gloat a bit and be very positive supporting a continuation in the stock price. So, I would think the stock goes up to the low $30's from here, whether tomorrow or next week once people have had a chance to absorb the new information and re-run their models.
Exactly. The big investors and analysts now have to meet, reassess the new information, and make decisions. The big moves are more likely early next week once this process takes place. Still, uncertainty remains as to how much LINE will have to sweeten the deal with BRY to get it done. That overhang will be with us until we know for sure. To the extent the SEC mattered and uncertainty re: the distribution mattered, those should be behind us now.
Don't expect it all in one day, but I would be surprised if we don't see $30+ stock within the next week or so. If SEC is truly behind us, the distribution is much more assured now (especially if merger occurs), so it's a great chance for a 10%+ distribution in a much lower risk situation than existed yesterday.
Already, they capture the lion's share of the margin in the smartphone market. The new Japan distribution partner and new lower priced iPhone will allow them to take an even larger share of the profits. And, China Mobile will happen and allow even more. For them to offer a phone so cheap as to appeal to everyone is simply not a way to make significant incremental profitable and would be pursued at the risk of destroying the brand of high quality. I think Apple knows exactly what they are doing and they are right IMO.
Clearly, LINE has the most upside from this SEC outcome, as they took the biggest hit because of it. However, any MLP that has been hit by the false statements made by Barry at Barron's and Kaiser at Hedgeye should now have a clean bill of health as well. We should have several nice days of upside ahead of us here. We may not get back to $38, but certainly something north of $30 is in the cards IMO. GLTA
My experience with the SEC suggests the following. The comments are such that LINE will simply confirm their acceptance in writing and in updating their S4 and move forward. Also, while I would assume this clears up everything relating to the SEC, it would be helpful for LINE to clarify that point. I can't imagine the SEC giving LINE a clean bill of health on the merger and continuing a separate inquiry, but clarification is in order. GLTA
Good news out of China this weekend. Imports up more than 10% over a year-ago, exports up more than 5%. Further sign two-quarter slow-down is reversing and very positive for stocks like VALE.
Never heard of these guys. I see they give a near-term, 10-day PT of $16.95. IF the macro investment climate doesn't change for the worse (e.g. Syria, U.S. government shutdown, Fed tightening, China growth, etc.), I still think VALE pushes low-$20 range by year-end. It should make a nice move into what everyone expects to be a very strong quarterly report and, if it is very strong, it could make an additional move into year-end.