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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

bbarberayr 348 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2015 10:58 AM Member since: Feb 26, 2007
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  • Reply to

    New CEO - potential for change?

    by bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 12:21 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jun 25, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    With ANAT, he gave up the CEO position to a non-family member, so it is not just about him trying to set up his son. Plus, the Brazil thing is only for NWLI, so wouldn't have affected his ANAT stepdown.

    Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but my impression is he is moving out of the business. Could be for health, mental capacity or just personal reasons, but either way, I see it as a potential positive.

  • Reply to

    New CEO - potential for change?

    by bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 12:21 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    Hopefully Batraa is still around and can clarify.

    But if you search this board for "had a nice call with the company" dated May 22, 2012, Batraa indicated the son understood some of the issues and it was just the father standing in the way.

  • Reply to

    New CEO - potential for change?

    by bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 12:21 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 7:39 PM Flag

    The one example I would point to is EVT and E-L Financial in Canada. It was founded by Hal Jackman and run for many years like NWLI has been run. About 2 years ago, Hal retired and the son took over. Since then, they changed the dividend policy to pay out much more, the sold one of the 2 main divisions, Dominion Insurance to the Travellers and the stock has gone up quite a lot.

    Not saying the same will happen here, but I would think the father is only stepping down because he has to for health, competence, etc. reasons. If he was doing it for the son, he would have done it long ago.

    I think the son will want to put his own imprint on things and he has shown indications that he would like higher income by his usual selling of stocks bought through exercised options. Perhaps he will make some changes which we all think make sense like a share buyback at discounted levels and an increased dividend.

  • Reply to

    New CEO - potential for change?

    by bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 12:21 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jun 23, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    Decided to take a bit of a flyer that this will be meaningful and added to my position. Maybe this is the start of some good changes and, if not, stock is near the bottom of the range it has been in for the last year, so downside should be limited.

  • From today's SEC filing - maybe this could get things started to make the company more shareholder friendly. Can't remember who here (batraa?) was talking with some board members about this, but Robert Moody was seen as the roadblock to doing some things:

    On June 19, 2015, the Board of Directors of National Western Life Insurance Company (the "Company") appointed Ross R. Moody ("Mr. Moody") as President and interim Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Mr. Moody (age 52) has served as a member of the Company's Board of Directors since 1981 and as the Company's President and Chief Operating Officer since 1992. Mr. Moody will serve as the Company's interim Chief Executive Officer until the Company appoints a permanent Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Moody will not receive any additional compensation while assuming the duties of interim Chief Executive Officer. Robert L. Moody, Sr., who served as Chief Executive Officer until June 19, 2015, will continue to serve as Chairman of the Board, at an annual salary of $100,000, as determined by the Company's Compensation Committee, plus benefits currently provided to him as a Company director.

  • bbarberayr by bbarberayr Jun 11, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    AM Best out with their reviwe today and stays at A (excellent). Nothing in the press release about increase risks due to Brazil. Good indicator, because they do talk about risks to the company, so if this was seen as a significant one, it should have been called out.

  • Reply to

    Earnings & BV

    by dsouth7777 May 8, 2015 12:57 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr May 8, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    And no change in the wording on the Brazil situation.

  • bbarberayr bbarberayr Apr 29, 2015 10:41 PM Flag

    Thanks for all your discussion and analysis work on NWLI. Was good reading and well thought out.

  • Reply to

    ANAT

    by dsouth7777 Apr 28, 2015 2:10 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Apr 29, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    Well, that is interesting!

    Wonder if Robert Moody is getting ready to step down in general. If so, maybe some of the discussion we've had here about being more shareholder friendly may come through for NWLI.

    I still think of NWLI in a simlar vein to EVT.TO, where EVT.TO was a long term insurance and holding company with a minimal dividend, but when daddy stepped down, junion increased dividends and sold half the company to increase value.

  • Reply to

    Reorg

    by stillwater9999 Apr 6, 2015 4:44 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Apr 9, 2015 8:45 AM Flag

    Probably just to take advantage of the same things most companies do:

    "The State of Delaware is a leading domicile for U.S. and international corporations. More than 1,000,000 business entities have made Delaware their legal home. More than 50% of all publicly-traded companies in the United States including 64% of the Fortune 500 have chosen Delaware as their legal home."

  • Reply to

    Disappointment

    by steinej Jan 22, 2015 10:32 AM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jan 23, 2015 7:52 AM Flag

    If you wait for the lawsuit settlement, you may not get a chance to buy as the price may jump on this.

  • Reply to

    Ciao

    by dsouth7777 Jan 13, 2015 2:11 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jan 13, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    NWLI Was up 20% last year, so much better than the market. Off to a weak start this year, but probably just following the market with some profit taking from last year's win. I think we have another market beating year in 2015.

    But good luck - hope it works out for you

  • Reply to

    Another good year

    by stillwater9999 Jan 1, 2015 10:09 AM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jan 7, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    I agree. Mine too. Plus, there is a reasonable chance rates finally rise this year, which would provide a tailwind for the lifeco's.

  • Reply to

    Bank & Insurance Companies

    by dsouth7777 Dec 1, 2014 6:46 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Dec 3, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    NWLI hasn't gotten into trouble with their bond portfolio since I've been following it for the last 10 years. They are very diversified and conservative. I guess if it was going to happen though, it would make sense that would be with the energy companies given NWLI's Texas location. But I really, really don't think it will turn into an issue for them.

  • Reply to

    Another Good Report

    by dsouth7777 Nov 6, 2014 1:49 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Nov 7, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    Market even recognized it and bounced when earnings came out.

    The volume has actually been good (for NWLI) in this latest uptrend the last month.

    Perhaps these 2 factors are showing the market is getting more interested in our well-run, value stock.

  • Reply to

    Ummmmm.....

    by dsouth7777 Nov 3, 2014 9:46 AM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Nov 4, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Could be a lot of reasons and you'll never know.

    Could be a fund building a big position; could be sentiment changing on interest rates; could be someone trading out of a more expensive insurer; could be a persistent seller is finished; could be some inside news on earnings or a takeover (unlikely but possible)

    I think the thing to focus on is it is an inexpensive, well run company in a market where there are fewer and fewer of these, so the price generally should go up.

  • Reply to

    Declining Premiums

    by chiefned Nov 4, 2014 8:54 AM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Nov 4, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    If you've priced your insurance based on those rates, then it absolutely makes sense. N o-one know for sure what rates will do and NWLI is in the business of making money on insurance and not on speculating on interest rates.

  • Reply to

    Why divi not supporting PPS

    by airlease2000 Oct 1, 2014 8:24 AM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Oct 1, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I believe it is more the Ebola scare making investors think air traffic drops and hurts stocks like FLY.

    Look at stocks like DAL for example.

  • Reply to

    Some 10K notes

    by bengrahamman Aug 14, 2014 3:19 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Aug 21, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    It's still important to recognize this, especially when looking at the relative value of lifeco's.

    KCLI for example trades at a p/b of .65, but really is .69 when you strip out AOCI, so at a 13% premium to NWLI. And this is for a less quality company with lower ROE.

  • bbarberayr by bbarberayr Aug 21, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Anyone know if the Bank of America settlement for $17 billion includes the money ORI is suing them for?

AGO
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