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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

bbarberayr 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 9:19 AM Member since: Feb 26, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Some 10K notes

    by bengrahamman Aug 14, 2014 3:19 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Aug 21, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    It's still important to recognize this, especially when looking at the relative value of lifeco's.

    KCLI for example trades at a p/b of .65, but really is .69 when you strip out AOCI, so at a 13% premium to NWLI. And this is for a less quality company with lower ROE.

  • bbarberayr by bbarberayr Aug 21, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Anyone know if the Bank of America settlement for $17 billion includes the money ORI is suing them for?

  • Reply to

    Will it make a difference?

    by stillwater9999 Aug 11, 2014 4:10 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Aug 17, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Even at the current price, buying back stock makes a lot of sense.

    Best for long term holder would be to continue to buy back stock as long as it a big discount to book and then implement a dividend.

  • Reply to

    Will it make a difference?

    by stillwater9999 Aug 11, 2014 4:10 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Aug 14, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    We had a company up in Canada EVT.TO which was basically the holding company for a guy named Hal Jackman. They paid a paltry $0.15 for years and no-one did anything about it.

    Hal retired and the son took over and changed the dividend policy to basically distribute all earnings to shareholders, which is much better.

    Jackman is 4 years older than Moody, so there is hope!

  • bbarberayr bbarberayr Jul 17, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    I think Ross was selling because it is a time-dated fund and he needs to start raising cash. He's also been selling in OCN for the same reason (according to press releases).

    BTIG Research (google them, I can't post links in the message board) has been doing a really good job of following the bond market and likes AGO and has some good reports about their exposure, etc. You need to create an account, but it is free.

    The way I look at it is they cleaned up Alabama, Stockton, Detroit with very few losses (extending terms, refinancing, etc) and Peurto Rico should be similar. They have a lot of excess equity, so could easily handle some losses here if needed.

  • Reply to

    Run Away!

    by dsouth7777 Jun 18, 2014 3:57 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jul 1, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Pure vanilla insurance and annuity company.

    Read their SEC filings - they detail their business and the expected yield on their outstanding bond portfolio.

    Of if you really want to dig in, read their insurance statutory filings. They have the full gory details.

  • Reply to

    Run Away!

    by dsouth7777 Jun 18, 2014 3:57 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Jun 22, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    chiefned, NWLI has a controlling shareholder who does not want to sell, so no comparison.

    dsouth, NWLI is making good profit with low rates. Higher rates, assuming they come, will only help, but even without these, the business is good.

AGO
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