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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

bbarberayr 9 posts  |  Last Activity: May 11, 2016 12:55 PM Member since: Feb 26, 2007
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  • bbarberayr by bbarberayr May 11, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    Did a search of the Panama Paper Leaks and no NWLI in there. Wondered if some of their offshore insurance sales would have gotten caught up in people trying to avoid taxes, but at this level, they have not.

  • Reply to

    Another Day, Another Downdraft

    by dsouth7777 May 10, 2016 3:19 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr May 11, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    dsouth7777, you really are missing the main themes here. You are picking on NWLI for industry issues, not company issues. I agree there would likely be a 1-time valuation rerating if things happenned like getting rid of the dual share structure, increasing the dividend, but these factors were in play 10 years ago, and it is why the shares were cheaper than most life insurers then and now. I will try and explain 1 more time.

    A 10 year chart comparing NWLI to MET, PRU, MFC and KCLI show NWLI at the top., so the company is doing as well or better than the industry or it would be worse.

    MET had a p/b of 1.4 in 2006, now it is 0.6, so 43% or 10 years ago
    NWLI had a p/b of 0.9 in 2006, now it is 0.5, so 56% of 10 years ago

    So NWLI has actually shown less loss in market value than large cap MET, another sign that it is being run well.

    You can say they've produced a loss over 10 years, but the so has pretty much every other life insurer, so saying NWLI are "fools" is incorrect as they have increase book value significantly and the valuation discount is outside their control as it applies to all other life insurers as well.

  • Reply to

    Another Day, Another Downdraft

    by dsouth7777 May 10, 2016 3:19 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr May 11, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    dsouth777, run a compare chart of NWLI again other life insurers and you'll see it is an industry thing, not a NWLI specific thing. ON most timeframes, NWLI is one of the better, if not best, performing stock.

    Life insurance is down, because people are worried about low rates and what happened to the Japan insurers when their rates went really low. When rates form up, they will all rise.

    And you can't say they should be doing better like the P&C insurers as that is a completely different business and valuations are different.

  • bbarberayr by bbarberayr May 5, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    Earnings a bit weak for Q1. There was a minor lawsuit hit (which they are appealing), but likely the bulk of the decline was due to lower investment returns, which we will need the full financial reports to verify.

    Interesting quote in the press release:
    "There is clearly a great deal of uncertainty in the financial markets which may be manifested through increased levels of volatility. The timing and the future direction the Federal Reserve may take on interest rates adds to the level of uncertainty. This backdrop is a challenging one for the life insurance industry and, in this context, tests our ability to generate growth."

    If they really believe this, it helps build the case that they should look at capital management ideas. The stock repurchase idea would be the obvious way to generate EPS growth per share.

  • Reply to

    Market Soars, NWLI Goes Down

    by dsouth7777 Mar 17, 2016 2:31 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Mar 21, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    The other thing you have to remember is the reason we all have been able to buy it so cheap is because of its lack of dividend, the Moody ownership, etc.

    AT some point this will change and, whoever owns it then, will benefit, but in the meantime, it seems to be trading in line with most lfeco's.

    Re FFG, they a,so have a P&C division, so maybe that is why the higher ROE and P/E. I know when I used to sell software to insurance companies and they were still called Farm Bureau Mutual, they had a good reputation as well.

  • Reply to

    Market Soars, NWLI Goes Down

    by dsouth7777 Mar 17, 2016 2:31 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Mar 18, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    Look at it compared to the TLT - 20 year bond and there is a pretty strong inverse correlation.

    Reality here is a small, family controlled company will trade at a lower valuation to a widely held large cap. SO run a chart compare of MET to NWLI and NWLI looks pretty good.

    The other reality is, no-one will pay up for life insurers in the current rate environment as the risks are too high and ROE's too low. People remember the troubles the Japan insurers got into a few decades ago from low rates and are worried about reinvestment risk.

    You either need to be patient and wait for rates to rise, or I'd just move on and find other things.

  • Reply to

    Market Soars, NWLI Goes Down

    by dsouth7777 Mar 17, 2016 2:31 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Mar 18, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    It's not a NWLI thing, it's a life insurer thing. Look at small cap KCLI at 58% of book. Even large caps like MET at 71% of book.

    The market went up, because rate and the expectation of higher rates went down. Unfortunately, that has the opposite effect on life insurers.

    Reality is, when rates rise, life insurers rise. Been that way for a few years now. And when rates finally do move up for real, life insurers will be one of the price beneficiaries.

  • Reply to

    New Chairman of the Board - maybe changes coming?

    by bbarberayr Mar 14, 2016 12:16 PM
    bbarberayr bbarberayr Mar 17, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    I tend to agree. The father had no need for money and wasn't interested in pushing through a lot of changes, but the son has often been a selling of his option stock implying he needs the money to support his lifestyle. Sure, he will get a raise, but a dividend would help him as would an increasing stock price

  • At its regular meeting on March 14, 2016, the Board of Directors of National Western Life Group, Inc. (the "Company") appointed Ross R. Moody ("Mr. Moody"), the Company's President and Interim Chief Executive Officer, as Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Moody's compensation will not be changing as part of this appointment. The Board also appointed Robert L. Moody, Sr. to the newly created employee position of Chairman Emeritus, for which he will receive monthly compensation of $1,000.

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