Paddler, I am in the same boat. Overweight and haven't sold a share. On the one hand I am not a gambler. I don't even bother trading.. Even if I am at a casino for an event (office event or family outing) I would spend no more than $50. Until I encountered MNKD, my investments were all in blue chips and mutual funds. The conservative side of me says, at the very least sell some just in case, even if I give the probability of FDA approval a 90% to 85% chance. We know #$%$ happens. It's just a matter of how much do I unload. My conclusion - just sell 30%. That gives me a 50% profit from the original investment. Go all in with 70% of current holding. If that succeeds, I can retire early.
Got it. Thanks z28702. Here's the excerpt:
"..The update to the labeling states that all patients who developed lung cancer had a prior history of cigarette smoking, and that there were too few cases to determine whether the development of lung cancer is related to the use of Exubera..."
Nothing new here.
Al will be the main speaker. He has over $1B invested in this. He has to do it himself. It's unfair for anyone else to take the blame for anything that may go wrong, or take the credit if it succeeds. Furthermore, if I were a scientist in the panel, I expect the creator of this product to step forward and defend. However, I feel that the panel will be nothing but in awe of Al. Anyone who has attained that level of respect and success to be in an adcom panel would have respect for Al's work. I don't expect others to understand. But those that have toiled hard for something and succeeded will understand.
rxkell, 'it is very simple - there is a large amount of options exiring on the 14th. the max pain number is just shy of 6 bucks' - there are only 258 contracts of $6 and 102 contracts of the $7 expiring on the 14th. You're a genius. NEXT!
darth, that's hilarious. If they can have Mr_dbsm represent the pharma industry, that will make my day.
Does Rapp count as an expert? He's a doctor (juris doctor). He is a trials attorney specialized in clinical trials..
DF is doing it. They want to convert at a lower price. Just ignore it. Unless you are a day trader it doesn't matter. What matters is the Adcom and fda approval.
tabs, you need to catch up a little. You are 200% off. Al has at least 180M shares. How do you own 45% of 400M shares outstanding with just 90M shares?
I agree derek. It actually benefits MNKD as the Tranche B note is based on 150% of debt converted. It's cheap funding source. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire $120M has already been converted and sold - which is good as there will no longer be dilution. I suspect the run-up started last Monday but was dulled by the DF conversion & sale of 6.5M shares ($40M/$6.1). It looks like its over now and pps should be going up.
From the Amended Facility Agreement:
"The Parties desire to amend the Facility Agreement to provide that, prior to December 30, 2014, the Borrower may deliver a Note Purchase Request from time to time pursuant to the procedures outlined in Section 2.2 of the Facility Agreement or the Purchasers to purchase a new series of Notes in the form attached hereto as Exhibit B (the “ Tranche B Notes ”)in a maximum principal amount equal to (a) at any time after the date of this Amendment, 33.33% of the Conversion Aggregate Principal Amount or (b) if the FDA has approved a new drug application for the Product (“ FDA Approval ”) and the Purchasers have purchased the Tranche 4 Notes, 150% of the Conversion Aggregate Principal Amount"
MNKD has effectively replaced Al's LOC with a facility from DF amounting to $180M (150% of the conversion which is $60M +$60M) if the FDA approves Afrezza. Also the interest rate is decreased to 8.75% (down from 9.75%).
CP, thanks for reaching out to Matt. I was just about to email Matt (it's 7:25am est too early to call Matt) to ask for a copy of the amended facility agreement that was incorporated by reference in the Posar. Fortunately I did some research and found it before sending the email. You can find the amended facility agreement as Exhibit B in the Exhibit 10.39 of the 10K. Some highlights:
"The Tranche B Notes will bear interest at the Interest Rate (which shall be reduced to 8.75% simple interest per year upon the Borrower entering into a collaborative arrangement with an unrelated Person to develop and commercialize the Product after FDA Approval) and shall be prepayable at any time commencing two years from their date of issuance without premium or penalty."
“Prior to December 30, 2014, the Borrower may deliver one or more Note Purchase Requests from time to time pursuant to the procedures outlined in Section 2.2 for the Purchasers to purchase Tranche B Notes in a maximum principal amount equal to (i) at any time from and after the date of the First Amendment to Facility Agreement, the excess of (x) 33.33% of the Conversion Aggregate Principal Amount on the date of delivery of the Note Purchase Requests over (y) any amounts for which Tranche B Notes are issued pursuant to Note Purchase Requests delivered under this Section 2.2(e)(i) or (ii) if the FDA has approved a New Drug Application for the Product (“ FDA Approval ”) and the Purchasers have purchased the Tranche 4 Notes, the excess of (x) 150% of the Conversion Aggregate Principal Amount on the date of delivery of the Note Purchase Request over (y) any amounts for which Tranche B Notes are issued pursuant to Note Purchase Requests delivered under this Section 2.2(e)(ii) and Section 2.2(e)(i). Each Note Purchase Request to purchase Tranche B Notes shall be in a minimum amount of $5,000,000, or such lesser amount of the Tranche B Notes available for purchase hereunder..."
Well, everything still hinges on fda approval. A good adcom vote will make me forgive and forget at least until the fda approval. Fortunately all of these will happen in the next few weeks.
I suspect the run-up started yesterday but was dampened by additional shares either coming from the ATM which was to be sold 'from time to time' starting yesterday, the date of filing (not likely); or more likely from the Deerfield conversion that was effective...you guessed it...yesterday. But the good news, the volume may reflect that this is finished. So tomorrow may really be a 'green' day.
pfg, thanks. I agree with your analysis. I will be calling Matt tomorrow to find out for sure. There is a provision in the Posar that says that anyone may request for the referenced attachment(s). One of the referenced attachment is the amended agreement. I will request for the complete attachment. Very sneaky of them to bury this with the hope no one notices.
pfg, I;ve been knocking my brains on this. Could use your help. In the recently filed POSAR, there is a paragraph:
"..On February 28, 2014, we amended the Facility Agreement to provide for the issuance of tranche B notes to Deerfield in a maximum aggregate principal amount equal to (x) if the FDA approves the NDA for AFFREZZA and Deerfield purchases the fourth tranche of Notes originally issuable pursuant to the Facility Agreement, 150% of the aggregate principal amount of Notes that Deerfield has converted into our common stock on and after the effective date of the amendment, up to $90.0 million, and (y) otherwise, 33.33% of the aggregate principal amount of Notes that Deerfield has converted into our common stock on and after the effective date of the amendment, up to $20.0 million, in each case subject to the satisfaction of certain other conditions. The amended Facility Agreement also provides that, subject to certain limitations, Deerfield may convert up to an additional $60.0 million of the Notes issued and outstanding on the date of the amendment into shares of our common stock following the effective date of the amendment..."
(1) Is "tranche B Notes" described here the same as the one issued in July 2013. Or is it entirely new?
(2) Why does it have "price amount equal to (x)" - if the fda approves the NDA
(3) What is the "(y)"
(4) I know people will bash me for this; but are they concealing a much larger amount of a new facility agreement?
I thought young people were more technology savy than that. I am far from young but I've been using electronic transfers for many years now. To get a paper check seems very odd.
rapp, you can't make money using wrong facts. I don't care what your youtube says. Use the 10K. How can you rely on a video when there are formal regulatory filings that provide the facts? What law school did you go to?