Sasol has a progressive dividend policy, so it is likely to be safe even at the lower levels. This means the dividend alone is like a 7% CD at current stock prices. There is further downside to the stock price if oil and the Rand continues to depreciate versus the US dollar. However, at the point where you believe oil will stop falling, Sasol becomes a strong buy. Suggest dollar-cost averaging into SSL so as not to catch a falling knife on oil prices
Yes, with burning through as much cash in Q1 as they still have on hand, dispositions or sale will be key. It may go even faster if Moody's or S&P determine that TLM is no longer deserving of an investment grade credit rating
If you are done, why do you continue to dominate this message board with your angry messages? I'd like to see some good shareholder activism shake things up at TLM, but you're just making this a crappy environment for everyone!
If you don't like it, sell the stock and move on, cassandra.
I'd rather say that our information seems limited. TLM's United Kingdom Claymore platform (more than 10,000 barrels per day of annual production) is offline and under prohibition. If TLM is missing production guidance, the market can be punishing. We just don't get that much free flow of information about TLM. I want to know more!
TLM's North American assets are worth at least $10 per share. If TLM falls below $10/share, takeover rumors should begin to take center stage. This is not to say, however, that the low current share price is undeserved. There is a lack of confidence in TLM's current management, which has struggled to meet its own modest production targets. Thus, TLM is probably a good investment at this price, but it's pretty much bottom-feeding as the company's operational delivery does not deserve a premium.
The high Brent crude price has helped the entire sector, but TLM has outpaced its peers for the last couple of months.
In addition to solid guidance, Talisman's deal with Sasol in late December marked a turning point for the stock price. Talisman had not gotten much credit in its share price for its shale gas assets, and this external benchmark helped validate both the asset value and the industry view of TLM as one of the stronger producers of unconventional gas, particularly since they are now the largest producer out of of the Marcellus area.
Today it's ~50% oil, ~10% oil price-linked natural gas (in Asia) and ~40% natural gas. So it's more of an oil play than a gas play.
Shale gas growth in North Ameica should increase their gas share by ~10% over the next several years, but most of what TLM explores for and develops in Columbia, SE Asia and other locales should be oil. But one never knows until they find it.
This is a big deal on multiple fronts. It gives TLM a much more solid and scalable position in the Eagle Ford shale. It also means one of the majors explicitly recognizes TLM's expertise in developing shale gas resources. It's smart business in that StatOil is purchasing half of what TLM already has in the Eagle Ford. And as TLM is publicly soliciting a JV partner for its Montney shale, perhaps this could lead to more activity with the same partner.
It's good news all around and an external vote of confidence for TLM's management.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune really captures this issue well today. We were far from being the only ones affected by WFC's decision:
Lol...I wish it were as simple as my missing their communication. The services mentioned in the article you linked to are not brokerage and IRA accounts, but it must be related to a larger exodous from Canada. From a customer's perspective, September 20 literally was the first notification we received, and they have the ability to send us email as well as snail mail.
We received a letter this week from WFC that, effective Monday, September 27, they are cutting off all business to Canadian residents - even ones like us that are from the U.S. and have had accounts with them for more than a decade! The short notice is completely unacceptable. The letter advises us to transfer the accounts to a Canadian-registered firm. However, IRA accounts are not transferrable to Canada, so WFC has real issues with regulatory compliance.
The bottom line is that, due to a regulatory change in Canada, WFC would be required to register in Canada. Rather than register and face Canadian disclosure requirements, WFC has opted to ditch its customers. The stock symbol should be "WTF"!
It's fair to ask how much patience to have with TLM. Fwiw, the stock has outperformed those of its peers for much of 2009 and 2010, but the entire E&P sector has been down recently.
Talisman has quietly become the largest natural gas producer out of the Marcellus shale play. Just like the deal for assets in Columbia provided some lift, any exploration success or shale deals could change market perceptions of TLM.
Canadian Spirit (CSRI, SPI.CN) announced this morning strong results from what the company believes is the first Lower Montney horizontal well drilled in the Farrell Creek area of NE British Columbia. Talisman is the largest player in this area with 57,000 net acres, 4 rigs running, and a 120 MMcf/gas plant under construction.
There is risk in any investment. Your point about land costs is a red herring; land costs are not the major economic driver of shale gas economics.
Surprisingly, Talisman is now the largest gas producer out of the Marcellus shale play and appears to be ahead of the curve in securing pipeline capacity and long-term sales contracts that ensure they will be profitable through the current weakness in natural gas prices.
Perhaps because it is Canadian, Talisman's success has not yet hit the radar strongly among U.S. equity analysts. The shale assets the company has in Canada -- Montney, Utilca and in Alberta -- are just a step or two behind the Marcellus. One of two things can happen with Talisman over the medium-term: either its growing success will be recognized, or an acquisitive peer will take advantage (the parts are worth more than the whole despite abandonment liabilities in the North Sea). Either way, the stock price is likely to go far higher than it is today. Great time to buy.
As I understand it, the shelf filing is just an administrative matter that makes it quicker to issue new debt. However, the Board would still need to approve any debt issuances.
Consider investing in an energy-related ETF from Vanguard or iShares. XOM is a great company and stock but, as a DJIA component, is not a pure play on energy prices. An energy ETF or investment in smaller exploration and production companies would be more oil-price sensitive per your premise about oil prices.
Nice run up, but I am out now...all it will take is one mediocre retail sales number, a resumption in energy prices, or another Fed Funds rate hike to send WMT tumbling back down.
WMT's SSS has been up nicely in part b/c of post-hurricane spending showing up in the data. Christmas still looks weak.
Cramer notwithstanding, this is one "aircraft carrier" I am off.
You're right that the affected area is not core to WalMart's earnings, but the large numbers of displaced people are spending their $2,000 debit cards in other cities and states. For example, activity in Houston and Dallas has picked up across the board. Apartment occupancy rates rise, household goods need to be bought. WalMart also is benefiting at the cost of other retailers as consumers become increasingly price conscious.
Barring another hurricane, the economic news will brighten within a couple of months. The rate increase today was a vote of confidence by the Fed in the economy. WMT will weather the storm. For those with foresight, this looks like a great entry point.
Is there any real discussion of WMT on this board?
I think WMT may have additional near-term (two-month) downside of 5%-10%. High energy prices are slowing consumer spending globally, and combined with the Gulf Coast devastation retail sales and GDP growth will be lower this quarter. With recent events the U.S. dollar has also resumed falling against other major currencies. This could lead to higher inflation. Widely anticipated Fed fund rate increases to 4% will probably be delayed to see how the economy holds up. Even without the further rate increases, many households may be squeezed at Christmas. These grim prospects are already priced into WMT.
Historically, WMT has fallen to the low $40s only to rebound within a few months. I think this definitely will be the case by late this year and early next year. If any retailer has enough clout to keep Asian suppliers from raising prices in the face of a weak dollar, it is Wal Mart. Wal Mart�s low price position will result in market share gains even as overall consumer spending continues to slow. Soon the investment to rebuild in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast will be tremendous with billions in household good purchases to be made. Unless there is an extremely cold winter, the high energy prices also should recede with crude and natural gas stocks currently near five-year highs. .
The WMT �stochastics� should bottom out soon, and analyst upgrades like that of S&P, which now has Wal Mart as a 5-star-rated strong buy, will translate into buying momentum for WMT by the end of the year. I see WMT comfortably back in $50s by next spring. What do you think?