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Alico Inc. Message Board

bcinvestadvisor 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 4, 2014 9:47 PM Member since: Jul 9, 2004
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  • Reply to

    E2D Aerial Refueling Capability

    by pa1702 Sep 3, 2014 4:39 PM
    bcinvestadvisor bcinvestadvisor Sep 4, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    I have little doubt that they will order all 75. It may take a couple of years for the next order to be announced, but I fully expect it. This plane fits right in with the direction the Pentagon envisions for our forces.

  • bcinvestadvisor bcinvestadvisor Sep 3, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    The 20% is a quick shortcut your brain takes. The 20% dividend indicates that 20% more shares will be issued. The percentage adjustment is a bit less straightforward. Where you had five shares you now have six. The decrease in price to be equivalent would be 16.666% (1/6). To determine what the share price equivalent compared to yesterdays price would be you take the current price and divide by .83333 (5/6).

  • Reply to

    More Class B Shares Headed Our Way

    by brubromb Aug 21, 2014 4:23 PM
    bcinvestadvisor bcinvestadvisor Aug 21, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    I am a bit surprised it was only 20%. I thought if a dividend was given it would be 25%.

  • Reply to

    Oh My! part II

    by bcinvestadvisor Jul 30, 2014 7:24 PM
    bcinvestadvisor bcinvestadvisor Aug 4, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    I have seen no good reason to leave. The share price keeps going higher and my cost basis keeps getting smaller. It works out to a pretty good combination.

  • bcinvestadvisor by bcinvestadvisor Jul 30, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    What a pleasant surprise this morning. I was stunned that Revenues were $174 million and eps cracked the dollar mark after adjusting for one time items. Sales for 2010 were $196 million. Now quarterly sales are nearly as much.

    The margins looked great and the forecast sounds real good. Without the large inventory adjustments it would be nice the see earnings over a dollar GAAP. I am with Brubromb, I easily see the share moving back into the $60s. It is great owning a company that is run so well.

  • bcinvestadvisor by bcinvestadvisor Jul 30, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    The company had absolutely huge news in the second quarter earnings report. The company has approximately 16% of their acreage under contract for more than $50 million. They also received permitting for 1,000 residential lots. That likely represents at least $20 million.

    What does it all mean? The company has $120 million in rental real estate net of debt. That leaves $140 million of market cap spread over 10,500 acres or approximately $12k per acre. The 1,700 acres (16% of 10,500) valued at $50 million is about $30k per acre. In therein lies the mis-pricing. The company on a conservative basis should be valued as if the land was worth at least $20k per acre. That implies a value of $60 per share. This company is an easy hold until shares hit the $60s.

    The sales are to be completed under five separate contracts. Even if not all deals are closed they still provide confirmation that the land is undervalued at $12k per acre. The company also indicates that they continue to receive strong interest in their vacant land.

  • Reply to

    Bought a few more today

    by sophia.leghorn May 27, 2014 1:50 PM
    bcinvestadvisor bcinvestadvisor Jun 30, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    The order has been removed from the rumor phase. NOC has orders for 35 planes and it is a multi year order. Other than that it is tough to read too much into the press release. It will be interesting to see how NOC approaches this news. Do they build an even 5 planes a year for five years or do they ramp things up and risk a pause in the program if they finish the order before the next order for 25 materializes? My guess is that they keep to the schedule and that they finish these 25 planes over a four year time frame. No matter how it plays out CSPI is a big beneficiary.

  • bcinvestadvisor by bcinvestadvisor Jun 24, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    The price of Florida farmland is skyrocketing. A recent sale just completed on 94 acres for $2.7 million. On a per acre basis it provides a $28k per acre price. It is likely that the $2.7 million price included more than land, but the price is still staggering.

    The Alico land is likely significantly undervalued at these prices.

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