Already good advice from others....ORIG has cash to keep it afloat for min two years. Oil has damn good chance to rise above $53-55 in that time frame.....I think orig could earn a living with oil above the $53 range. granted it would be paid at lower daily rates but could pay their bills. Ideally, oil at 60+ and Orig will be just fine....and its share price at much higher SP. ORIG is not for the faint of heart or those with short time frames.
On CNBC this morning, oil back to 60 by year end....Over supply only 1-1.5 million barrels over supply today vs 15 million a day in the mid 80's. Supply will quickly unwind during second qrt and prices rebound to $60 by year end. As usual, the market is over reacting, to the downside.
I'm in the ballpark of your estimation....$55-57 range for the cost of offshore per barrel. This could be reached by year end....as of now, SP reflects little to no chance of recovery. Bargain IMHO
Day to day movements never easy to explain, I suspect its related to losing the most recent contract, although that contract was due to expire in December 15, 2015. ORIG published that on their fleet status report. You can confirm on ORIG's website,,,,report was last published on Aug 2015.
Firesale coming to an end....Oil producing countries suffered enough pain. They are finally taken measures to reduce output for well's losing money. Supply will be reduced in short order and oil prices will bounce to 40's by second qrt. 50's coming by 4th qr.
Every swing negative swing is accompanied by a significant positive swing. Negative swings have typically lasted three years or less. The industry stopped investing in drilling and R&D and is consequently scramble to pay catch up to demand in the near future. US demand will be up due to low cost and a slightly improving economy. Shale and oil fields shutting down at ridiculous speed....high cost producers filing for bankruptcy.... these disappearing producers plus the lack of new wells coming to market will eventually hammer supply. Finally, the pain by nations depending on oil are at the initial stages of working together to find a mutual beneficial solution. It going to take time to flush it all out....bright days ahead in Q2 and epically Q3 2016.
There is still a lot of uncertainty, I don't think a buy back is in the best interest for the long run. I know its been criticized but I like the idea of retiring debt at a substantial discount. Orig needs oil to recover to 50's to materially move share price.
Because world demand grew in 2015 by over a percent, because China's middle class will be 3 times the U.S. In approximately 5 years, because oil has traced the strong dollar rise, because the huge surplus will be unwound in 6 months or less. But most importantly, all most everyone is on the negative bandwagon, the reversal will be swift.....these negative rallies never last more than 3 years for oil.
Kem60? Lmao...no response to stupid comments. Bottom line, nothing new with oil, first quarter was suppose to be brutal with balance of year revertsing the negative trend. Oil down 40% since December. The response by the market is over blown and the trend will reverse in time. With demand increasing the oversupply will unwind quicker than what the market is pricing in.
Going to $10, yeah right....then the following week its going to be free. Oil is cheaper than water......that won't last long.
I don't think a buyback is a good use of funds....pay down current debt which is not much or reduce debt when discounts are available. I also hope that they don't pick up distressed assets. What would be nice is to see GE, as a director/CEO, make some purchases of stock at these levels.
GE may be picking up drilling assets on the cheap. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that GE is seeking the drilling assets to expand its own oil and gas segment. Bottom line, Gen Electric recognizes an opportunity in oil despite the current price of oil....cheap assets now will reap rewards in the future. Orig has been hammered as the rest of the offshore drillers.....its cash and contracts should be sufficient to weather the storm, if so current shareholders who got in at these depressed levels (sub 3) will be rewarded significantly in the future.