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EXCO Resources Inc. Message Board

bdrn99 75 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • The economics that makes 3D printing incredibly attractive for manufacturers worldwide will not go away just because HP's product will only come a year or more later.

    Day by day Stratasys and 3D have the opportunity to continue to make the case for manufacturers worldwide that this can generate value today. Eventually when HP is ready a good part of the market will be using other products, which is already happening. They better come out with something stunningly better.

    More likely they, or an Asian competitor more likely, will come in and takeout one or both of the two large existing tech firms in this space.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SSYS vs DDD Arbitrage Trade

    by bdrn99 May 20, 2015 1:53 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 May 21, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    Oppenheimer did exactly this today. They upgraded Stratasys and downgraded DDD. Currently 3D Systems is 2.5 Billion while Stratasys is 1.9 Billion in valuation. Just from a relative valuation perspective Stratasys can run 30% making it very attractive here, particularly if someone did an arbitrage trade on the two large competitors in this space.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SSYS vs DDD Arbitrage Trade

    by bdrn99 May 20, 2015 1:53 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 May 21, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Even Oppenheimer makes this point for the upgrade. There is a lot of room to run here. just to be on par with 3D Systems.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bdrn99 bdrn99 May 21, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Stratasys does have the entire ecosystem today, which would help someone like HP turn this into a billion dollar market in year one alone. Technology alone is not good enough, particularly when they may end up being similar in a few years with the continued R&D effort of Stratasys.

    I don't think HP is the only one who will be interested in Stratasys at this point. Oppenheimer's upgrade today made it clear that this was the company in the 3D printing space to focus on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SSYS vs DDD Arbitrage Trade

    by bdrn99 May 20, 2015 1:53 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 May 20, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    All of their numbers are public, you can pull from the financial reports. Which way you go after making the comparison is your choice. Long SSYS and short DDD today for the same dollar amounts does make sense to me given the large valuation difference and the metrics, but it may not to others.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Compare the two companies on all metrics. Great idea for an arbitrage trade here?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bdrn99 bdrn99 May 14, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Crazy!

    But yes, it's good attention today. KYTH is still very much under the radar for whatever reason. This is probably the reason it will get bought out soon. Even the acquirers like such under the radar stories.

    Below $50 is shocking, but it should get way beyond that very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • OREX weight loss drug in big trouble today. Another reason why KYTH is a jewel in biotech today, few safe proven options with a billion dollar potential market.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Somewhere I saw that Kythera executives have Allergan ties. This will make it more likely for Allergan to reach out for a partnership to co-market ATX 101. Such a joint marketing deal may be less risky for Allergan, but can still present great upside for KYTH shareholders. If that were to happen then it would be a pathway to a complete acquisition someday.

    Given the potential of ATX 101 and the fact that it might be tested in other parts someday the 1 Billion valuation is very reasonable today.

    Let's see what comes out when KYTH presents Friday at the healthcare conference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • One of the NBC news affiliates recently ran a story, profiling a patient in the Kybella study.

    Google "Melt away your double chin: FDA approves first nonsurgical treatment" and watch the video in the link that comes up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1000$ a share kyth above 500 in a year

    by azimutleonardo May 7, 2015 8:22 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 May 7, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    The conference call brought three new highlights:

    1. They are now talking of nearly 1 billion worldwide sales, earlier i recall discussion on peak sales of 300 million US or so. Not sure what changed.
    2. They are very excited about the label they got. They seem to think this gives them everything they wanted for with no surprises or restraints from the FDA.
    3. They may be likely looking at some new molecules which they are not talking about. Given the company's focus on aesthetics this is probably in the same sector. When a questioner pushed they seemed to backpedal a bit and not mention any specifics on what new molecule they may be looking at. But look to see them make more deals with universities in coming months maybe.

    If the $1 Billion sales is real then what the previous poster said, the $500 price, will become real. Because margins on this are high and even at a typical pharma PE this can get there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1000$ a share kyth above 500 in a year

    by azimutleonardo May 7, 2015 8:22 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 May 7, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    That's a 10 Billion valuation, not impossible if this gets mainstream worldwide and the hairloss product also makes it through.

    More likely scenario this gets bought out later this year.

    Will need to go back and listen to the replay of the conference calls, usually these things are boring because they are not allowed to throw in speculative remarks. But it will be interesting to see what they say about the market and how they are approaching it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • All the new employees who are getting stock options are likely to be fairly senior, they are the ones who normally get options. These employees just got some at $45, meaning they are not likely to make anything significant on this until 60s or more.

    In March the new investors paid $48 to provide funds for commercialization. They are not going to see any return until 50s or more.

    These price points are all good indicators for the future of the stock. The recent down trend from 52 was on anemic volume, let's see where this heads from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Look how they ran articles yesterday saying Kythera executives and insiders were selling.

    Think about it, a week or so after final FDA approval, most stocks shoot up 50% or higher. It is natural that company insiders make planned insider sales way in advance of such events. Go and look at any biotech that got FDA approval.

    As it turned out in this case the stock price is BELOW what it was even prior to the March pre-approval where this went to 50+.

    Great deal at this price. Should see 50s very soon, maybe right after tomorrow's call when they discuss and lay out commercialization plans. This is a multi-billion market and a high margin drug, unlike many equipment oriented treatments that are lower margin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Will be all about Kybella's future and company plans. It will be interesting to see how they address questions on partnerships, interest in company from bigger firms and other things,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buying opportunity....... buy out coming

    by glenhurst2644 Apr 30, 2015 3:20 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 Apr 30, 2015 10:15 PM Flag

    A $2 Billion buyout now is a win for both sides. Kythera gets a decent premium, the buyer is left with a lot of upside.

    I saw how Kythera did not announce pricing yet but are aiming to do that in June. The value of the company is higher before pricing is announced since a potential buyer can have a say in setting this now (hard, but not impossible to do so later)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is the bottom in?

    by rainbowmeow2003 Apr 28, 2015 1:24 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 Apr 28, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Remember SSYS was $62 when it started its downward turn two weeks ago.

    The market has priced in a big hit in revenues, like DDD had. Stratasys fell as much as DDD did.

    Let's see when shorts choose to cover. Tesla went from 180 to 230 in a hurry, the market does not give them unlimited time.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bdrn99 bdrn99 Apr 25, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    Please remember that everything you see and hear are opinions. Nobody knows the future. SYSS could go back to &100 in a year or it could do further down too, stating the obvious here. Ultimately you have to do your own research and live with the calls you make.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    We had the washout, load up

    by high_tech_2000 Apr 24, 2015 10:09 AM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 Apr 24, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Bad news baked in THREE times for the same event.
    (1) Makerbot store closures were reported and the stock took a hit.
    (2) Piper Jaffray issued the warning from the survey and the stock took a hit
    (3) Now 3D warns and the stock takes a third hit, for the same quarter.

    Despite this we continue to see very low volume.

    Company with a treasure trove of 3D patents, 400 million in cash, almost a billion in revenues, executing better than most. Maybe they'll push it back to 50 briefly after earnings, so that's another time to have some cash in hand if needed here, but I really can't see more downside than that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Analysts were pounding the table at 130

    by high_tech_2000 Apr 22, 2015 12:58 PM
    bdrn99 bdrn99 Apr 23, 2015 10:54 PM Flag

    Look at the balance sheet, look at the revenue growth. This can head back to $100 on better than expected earnings and expectations now are low thanks to the company warning earlier as well as Piper Jaffray

    Sentiment: Buy

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