Have no doubt.
My experience is that stock markets value a stock not at current revenue levels but at perceived future revenue revenue levels. The fact the CEO has guided lower for Q1 is an excellent move. He has set the correct expectations and, I believe, is already factored into the stock price. Investors will be looking for news of new deals which will generate revenues in Q2 and beyond. A new CommSuite customer or another chip manufacturer win would be the catalyst for cementing the share price at its current level and driving it even higher even though we know Q1 revenues will be below Q4.
I just sincerely hope QCOM are really having severe technical difficulties with CnE and have decided to externally source the WiFi offload software. They now know that SMSI is strategically aligned with Intel and if they don't integrate software such as MBIM drivers and Netwise into the chip they will lose competitive advantage to Intel for wireless devices. We know at least one project with Intel is complete. What we don't know for sure is whether any more revenue will be generated from the completed project. The CEO said on the call he could not answer the question due to restrictions imposed by Intel. It is almost certain, however, that other projects will follow resulting in revenues, possibly in Q2 and beyond. They did say revenues would smooth out in the second half of the year so there is a clue that aditional revenues will be generated from the completed Intel project.
For long term investors willing to hold until the end of the year, I believe the share price will be hovering around $10 by the end of the year and $20 by the end of 2015. They will achieve this via increasing sales of Netwise and Commsuite with royalty revenues from the Netwise client and risk-free messaging on a revenue share model. We know they have good contacts at Verizon and AT&T. A CommSuite deal with one of these large MNOs would result in a major rise in the share price. tbc
Intel!! The largest chip manufacturer in the world!!!
This is also why SMSI are giving the ANDSF toolkit, Netwise I/O, away free. It encourages MNO to adopt the ANDSF standard which then drives activations of the ANDSF client in mobile devices which is now available on the chip due to the work they have undertaken with Intel.
This is a sensational buisness strategy and it is only a matter of time before very large royalty payments start rolling in. It also explians why the CEO can't be more specific about future revenues, There are many uncertainties around timing. How long before the Intel chips get into production? How long before those chips are integrated into mobile devices? How long before those handsets are in the hands of consumers? There is fierce competition in the mobile device marketplace. How long before MNOs install the server side solution? How long before the ANDSF clients get activated and how many will be? This is in the hands of the MNOs.
This also explians why the CEO stated many months ago that the strategy is one step at a time - it is not going to be a quick fix but, once established, the revenue possibilities are huge as more and more mobile devices are launched which have the intel chips inside.
And never forget - this is just Netwise. There is also the M2M and CommSuite revenues. Commsuite revenues are set to grow rapidly in Q2 due to Avatar messaging and the critical piece of information that any mobile device can play the message without downloading an app and the fact that the CommSuite content store will be integrated with other messagin Apps and social media. With this strategy Avatar messaging revenues could explode in the seocnd half of the year. $10m a month from static emoticons - what will dynamic Avatars generate??
Exciting and interesting times ahead....
The CEO spoke about the business model being different with chip manufacturers. Specifically, on the Q3 Conference Call he said...
"although chipset solutions take a different form and offer a different business case than our previous connectivity solutions, these deals provide validation that our deep domain expertise and connectivity remains highly relevant and valuable."
So what did he mean? Well, here is my guess.
So their traditional business model is royalties on units sold. This is NOT the business model for chipset solutions (e.g. Intel) as the CEO stated above. I think they get paid by Intel for integrating their software into the chipset as evidenced by the $2.2m they recognised in Q4. What happens then? The chipsets get integrated into mobile handsets which are then ANDSF ready. Consumers then buy those mobile devices and utilise them on an operator's network. I think at this point the ANDSF client integrated into the chipset is not activated. So now a mobile device is used in an area where the MNO experiences congestion and needs to offload trafffic to WiFi. They activate the ANDSF client and download the policy which triggers the mobile device to offload to WiFi thus relieving congestion on the cellular network. It is at this point, i.e. when the ANDSF client is activated that a royalty payment is triggered and is paid by the MNO to SMSI. Another use case maybe the handset user wants to offload traffic to WiFi to ensure he/she avoids overage fees. In this case since the value is to the consumer, the MNO may charge the consumer for the activation of the ANDSF client which eventually finishes up with SMSI.
Now if this speculation is anywhere near the truth, the strategy designed by Daniel Rawlings is clear. First release a toolkit to test for ANDSF compliance. Second, encourage all suppliers of an ANDSF server to use the toolkit to give confidence to MNOs that servers and clients interwork correctly. to be contiuned.
The beetroot - short at $1.46 - now down 33 cents a share.
The gormless gherkin - short at $1.58 - now down 21 cents a share
The clump of watercress - short at $1.50 - now down 29 cents a share
The mules - short at $1.69 (but could be less) - now down 10 cents a share.
They were warned. The losses accuulate. Tragic but true.
"Had to cover today."
More vacant vacuous drivel. No way did you cover today otherwise why not post it at the time?
The best you can do is cover in pre-market tomorrow or at the open. Cut the b...t
It's a miracle! There is one poster here who knows how to use the ignore feature!!
Perhaps you should post the instructions for all the other "lunies" (sic) that populate this board.
Top class entertainment!!
"Go to their website and find the Smith Micro "
I just posted an extract from the Gemalto web site just a couple of days ago which highlights the fact the Linqus platform has been developed in partnership with Smith Micro. Smith's name is all over it!!
Come on, mango!! Surely the orgasmatron hasn't taken that much out of you!!
"...I covered this morning @2.15"
Of course you did - so you shorted at 4 cents below the high and covered at 1 cent above the low. Right!
So why didn't you post the trade at the time it was $2.15? Answer: because it has started rising again!
Such garbage from the dandelion.
since Lippincott could have made more by selling his shares just three business days later than he did. Just proves that insiders buying or selling is meaningless. Just as I have been posting for years.
CommSuite, Netwise and M2M product lines all in high demand. As the company makes its dramatic turnaround, it will be much stronger and more resilient than the company it was before when it was dependent on just one or two very large customers in just one market sector. Now they are not just selling to MNOs but a very diverse range of customers and a very diverse product range.
We are witnessing the birth of what could become a very large software company indeed. As the CEO said a few months ago, "we are not here just to rightsize the company, but to grow the company". And that is precisely what he is doing. An initial $2.2m from Intel with more projects to follow. Will royalty revenues flow once the chips which have SMSI integrated into them start to sell?? I would have thought so unless they have structured a deal where they receive a guaranteed monthly or quarterly payment for support and maintenance. Either way, future payments are all but guaranteed. Ignore the mindless vacuous drivel about this being a "trial". What utter garbage. We know SMSI is involved with Intel on mobile projects which are "very strategic". Why would a "very strategic" project result in a one-off trial? It is clearly more nonsense and vacant vacuous drivel which is relentlessly posted on this board by the vacant vacuous vegetables who mostly populate it.
Even with the share price 160% higher than it was in October, there is no let up in the mindless drivel which is posted here. Will it ever end? Of course it will. As the share price continues its relentless rise upwards, eventually even the mindless vacuous vegetables who mostly populate this board will look even more ridiculous than they do already. But look on the positive side. At least they provide first class entertainment as they post drivel such as "it always gives back all its gains" as the share price rises 160% in just over four months.