I follow, it is on my radar, it is all US NG w high debt but manageable according to the company..15% yield pays .05monthly Canadian.. uses hedges... good presentation on company website. PLT-UN.TO is ca symbol, more info on that symbol as w all CA firms.. they use $4NG in their presentation.. but NG is more like 3.75 today! interesting tax benefits for US investors, like Argent, Eagle, Crius, speculative high yield IMO. I would nibble under $3.50US on a little. it is a NG company, there is a lot of NG in the US..a lot as you know.
I would be happy w 7-10c mo for a while during this buildup, what a great partner in Pioneer!! and w buy on dips which seem to occur every so often. my avg cost is close to $11 w dist so far. of course o/g down and in the dumps now but WTI seems to be holding up ok. gasoline prices down .20 in my area in last 2 wks, should help demand. NG is just gonna be weak. read CNX update, their NG production is DOUBLE 2013's, they are drilling like crazy despite large Marcellus discounts on their PA/WV ng..
it is frustrating, hanging in there.. probably range bound all year 2.50-.3.20CA$ , year end may be especially painful for tax loss selling. of course WTI, Brent, NG all down, US share price is doubly hit when down in CA as today ( current price 2.73CA down .02) with loonie taking a big hit on US$ strength down from .93 recently to .9167 now..which actually helps argent's cash flow when the US$ are sent up to CA.. 2nd q should be out soon. I think they will continue to drib out good news. PWE getting clobbered.. potential "accounting irregs" I will probably wait till 2nd quarter is announced and analyst call is done to decide if adding here. sometimes they drib out a few details on presentation updates, next probably early Aug. glty, jsb, bea
interesting issue to develop Poland fracking NG wells on 700k acres owned.. not callable until 7-2017, conv when common is at $5.. high yield energy issue, of course it is drilling in a foreign land which is always s/t/politics etc. but play on Europe diversifying from Russian NG.
glad I added yesterday, they squeezed the shorts who have been taking it down on no bad news. probably still range bound but these teasers w big increase in eagle ford production from new wells, tweaking older assets for sale, got over 100kboe and 10mil for 95boe KS sale. they only paid 48m for that asset last year, production in those fields has been increasing due to polymer injections, low decline wells... debt to be under 90mil in Aug, probably pay down more, bank is on board, LOC still $160mil.. I expect they develop other legacy assets and evaluate for small sales. we could have LOC paid off by 1st q 2015, big cash flow this year..seems like the turnaround is in place. up to $3CA at 230pm on over 900k shares in Canadian trading..over 5x daily volume. nice to see a bounce for a change. I am long for "long term" hold for yield and value here. 20,000 EagleFord acres w PVA and others producing near by is one heck of an asset . Bea
the slight fade into 2nd q report probably mid Aug is a little concerning but probably just due to lack of news. most firms do not release any news other than quarterlies and conf calls. 9% yield is sweet, adding a little here. no real insider sales, only buys, mostly small but they are not billionaires so they are putting skin in the game too.. no real large blocks in July to indicate any institutional selling from big holders Franklin Funds CA or Aston Hills funds... I would like to see more value funds or high yield/energy funds buying but they probably want to see more of the "new plan" execution play out. high WTI should mean great cash flow as 2nd-3rd q are probably peak production w capex done for 2014.. if they can squeeze 10-50boe day from some old wells in the legacy fields in OK/WY/KS, that would be encouraging; you have Tallgrass LP building out Pony Xpress Pipeline etc in these states which could help WTI differentials.. oh well, glta, buying a little her at 2.48 Bea
seems to be holding this level despite the additional volume, mkt up and underlying common up as well w high yield holding up. neutral price action is fine w the high yield!
with interest rates staying low, spreads still very narrow, it would be a nice tuck in acq for PNC, close/consolidate/ they could probably get it for $11.50 easy, would probably be accretive to PNC, the 900lb gorilla in the regional banking market, esp in PA. I think it could test $8 near term where I would buy.
they still hold the shares from the other fund which was a total return div fund, things like xom, goog, hpq etc. I am hoping they clean this up and use cash for firepower to pick up some reits that decline when shares are offered like IRT recently.. we'll see. still a big disc to nav 13.90 today w price at 12.50 dist .24q starting w sept fees should be lower, low for a cef at 0.90 projected fee. no leverage.
reviewed july presentation in co website seems like a great buy here. good hedges, no real ng, heavy oil differential is relatively low compared to last july when it was same price. dist declared as usual.
how about PETRONAS, it's been 18mo since they bot Progress.. CA is ripe for allowing another takeover. "oh, ok, just one more...." how many times has that happened. then maybe CPG would come in.
RBC reviewed 2nd q update and reiterated 8.75TP. WTI bounced up hard from long term uptrend line of 99.63 yesterday and closed up today. lts so oversold it was due.. would have like to have seen more large block buys into the 3rd q by pension funds, mutual funds etc. pretty much normal Canadian volume today.
including John Brussa, the father of the Canroy concept back in the day..he bot 333k shares at 1.80canadian. price starting to be very interesting again plus div of .015mo CA over a 10% yield.
here comes 6.50,, revised my limit order to buy at 6.50 to try to catch some at 6.25 for long term holdings not a trade, probably not today but maybe this week if oil/ng keep heading down.. about a 7% yielder again.. glad I sold a little on the way up to recent highs, will use that firepower for my limit.... but still a core holding as long as they keep executing plans.. if CPG or someone came in at $10 offer today or this week, it would be a huge premium but still so cheap for them.. they could offer .25sh of CPG stock, refi the LTS high yield debt at very low costs, keep cleaning up non -core, gain 40kboe production, infrastructure. wow seems no brainer to me! glta. Bea
$7US holding so far,imo the whitting/Kodiak merger tells me that these players have to now start to look to economies of scale to achieve better profitability,,adding a cleaned up lightstream to another producer means better negotiating power w rr's, for railcar fees, pipelines, when buying trucks, negotiating drilling rights etc. saw one analysis today on CA stock site that applying the $149kboe metric WLL is paying for KOG to LTS makes us at least $20 undervalued. I think a tired producer like PGH,PWE or reinvigorated ERF could merge this out for $10sh. not entirely out of the question for a us producer or--say CPG to buy, CPG is done digesting their recent CA acq. Scotia Bank increased it's tp to 8.75 from 7$CA, 25%, they like our restructure, debt paydowns. weak o/ng now not helping overall, but giving us a good long term buying opp imo. once again-- CA oil/ng is so cheap compared to what other world oil/ng assets are going for. who want to produce in Angola or Libya when you can do CA cheaper and much safer w real laws and AAA banking system in place . Statoil needs to buy something big soon. Chinese buyers have been burned by oil sands buys, but they are long term holders. who knows they may try to nibble at a conventional oil play buy.. I don't think CA would stop a buy or two by foreigners, domestic expansion is getting no where w first nations and enviro's... you don't hear anything about Korean Oil co which bought out Harvest Oil CA a few years back and added a good east coast atlantic refinery for a song along w HTE's oil/ng assets. Korean and Japanese may be the next players in CA hungry for capex in existing assets. nuclear still dead in Japan, they are sucking up huge oil for sure, along w India which is rebounding.. I am reviewing my CA hotlist now, LSTMF starting to look decent again to nibble, may be a little early.. was thinking $7 to add but now may put in a limit order to buy at $6.50... glta, sorry to ramble.. Bea
coming online in Aug 14, since we are getting 10-20$ less than WTI for WY oil, improvements in the infrastructure in these areas not only may improve our netbacks on 2k-3kday but adds to the value of legacy fields and improvements in flowbacks from existing wells being flushed out. a minor positive again, all these little pluses adding up imo. still a good spec hold imo w 8 percent yield
oil/ng way down, summer doldrums, cooler weather in ne coming etc. lstmf at 7 is a 6% yield again.. I am sure the 2nd q will be good and maybe some news will drib out soon. I think Canadian ng producers will be better off than US ones as tx/ok can't compete w Marcellus/Utica. more markets for ng in west US from CA. oh well. Bea
from July present. on co website-- no real changes but no unpleasant surprises, some good news---2 Haydens wells in Gonzalez County – Successfully drilled and completed and are in the early stages of flowback, still guiding for 6100-6200boe 2nd-3rdq 2014, and capex pretty much done for 2014. mgmt. still buying shares in May, June..
no real changes or news from june,stock closed at 3.14CA today on tsx, up into close-- prod guid still at about 6200boe for 2nd-3rdq, some good news, major capex for 2014 done and 2 wells completed in Gonzales Co TX and flowing back! no rate shown. but enuf to maintain guid etc for 2014-2015 at least according to presentation. from presentation...2 Haydens wells in Gonzalez County – Successfully drilled and completed and are in the early stages of flowback. still a spec value hold imo, decent yield for sure
I think it could test $7US soon.. just on technicals- flush out the few remaining long term holders who want to sell.. some others who got in at $5-6 might panic and lock in profits... most analysts still bullish on stock in CA, funds bullish on energy, energy in general and LSTMF underowned by funds, they could be buyers as well. I would add at $7 for the 6% yield and undervalued assets. Sold some at 8.25, I was way up on a 12/2013 purchase and the stock seemed ahead of itself technically. Oil/NG also had big run up, summer selloff now, should stabilize soon. If they keep cleaning co. debt/non-core assets up, it seems a juicy takeover spec as well. long term buy for sure. Bea