looks like a day trader pumper dumper type. doesn't seem to be anyone invests for the long term anymore. just looks like a bunch of charts he feels were interesting for trading..the share price seems to be hanging in here in the $5 range. will be a tough year although capex will be lower and costs should be coming down, servicers are getting a lot of pressure to cut costs.
you might enjoy recent Market Anthopology blog site article out Friday 2/27 calling for a further jump in silver/gold stocks among other things. Erik has called the turn in Japan, China, Treasury#$%$ new lows among other things. He feels based on charts and historical comparisons coupled with some admittedly heavy writings and thots that copp er/gold/silver/oil are bottoming and the dollar is topping. it is interesting stuff. also Kimble Charting solutions saying silver pretty much bottomed at $15ish. I use technical along w fundies to try to catch long term investment entry/exit points. w the market being run by activists, day traders, optionists, hedgies and computers, these chartists can help catch patterns. I think PAAS is among the better run silvers and will probably enter soon along w CEF, ASA as my metal holdings. I agree it may be a little better to buy in april/mayish. of course, FCX is a way to play the rebound in gold/copper/oil if you feel that is coming..even though I think it not the best run company.. they sure called the top in Oil w their purchase in that space. glta, Bea
lol! I enjoyed that. I think many don't realize limited duration means it ends, they think it holds securities which are like term debt ending at some point.. which it does not...but again I don't think it will anyway, they will merge or change it before then, none of these mgrs. give up any assets they don't have to.. who can think that long term like we used to back in the day when we "invested". the avg investor is a trader at best anymore. Bea
I don't think the pain is over yet in o/ng.. they are all growing production for the most part in 2015, no real shut in's in production.. so really, new lows have to be tested again imo and there will be better entry points to add for longer term investors. encouraged by the squeeze they are putting on the servicers and other cost cutting measures. w bigger scale w KOG buy, they have more clout in the oil patch. way too early to be buying into these names.
I think the fact that PAA, NFX, CVE, ARC.TO even little Emerald Oil can sell energy related equity in this market should be viewed as a positive indication that we in a bottoming and consolidation process in the energy space. so.. you have a toll taker, NG E&P firm, oil sands producer, CA oil/ng company and small E&P company all raising equity in this difficult environment. how smart does PXD look having raised a billion $$ late last year for their war chest before the bottom fell out. capital efficiencies that have become necessary finally in this space will help all the companies long term and strengthen the North American oil producers as they gird against the new threat in the oil patch over and above supply and demand ; the weaponization of o/ng. the shares will probably be in the low 50's by 3/15. Bea
I read today that rig count in N Mx is up while other states are down. it is possible that this area of the Permian is more net profitable and continues to attract interest even at these low commodity prices. as most know, remaining rigs out there are shifting to the better opportunities. sadly to me it means this will keep a lid on commodity prices for the foreseeable future as there is just not enough cut back in production. Bea
like GGN/GNT? small fund pays .048mo CA w buy/write gold option strategy, again, like GGN/GNT seems an interesting entry point here. Bea
agree.. nice to have an intelligent convers. on these boards like you are "supposed to"..thank you. I have been following PGZ, just raised their dist again, 2x since issue, disc to nav.. reit heavy plus CMBS, interesting, I like Principal as well as a mgr, know them from my ins days.. they do a good job on things.. reits seem frothy, not adding just yet. still reeling from some energy losses but diversified.. everything seems expensive to me, bonds, stocks,,some CEF's like BWG seem good. maybe PCI which is down.. global recession/depression would crush BWG like energy mess crushed SRF.. does not seem likely w all the currency devalu's and int rate cuts/stimulus/ I guess that is why I am leary of too much leverage, some of the CEF's use 40% or more, we should be ok in the mid 30's. take care. diversify and stay nimble as you know! feel badly for the SRF folks, I was almost tempted on that one but their track record on SRV was not good. Bea
I think the problem is everyone is producing more and ng/ngl/oil pricing will be under pressure for some time to come. in all the energy releases since Nov 2014, I have only seen 1,000 boe shut in by a CA producer.. everyone else is either growing production thru efficiencies or well completions to tie in to new infrastructure.. focusing on "better returning" drilling etc.. it may take more time to work this thru than we all think. NG may be in for pain similar to oil w sub $2 pricing if summer is avg temp like last year despite coal plant shuts.. there is SO much NG and NGL...so I feel there will be better entry points in energy stocks if you are a long term holder, with a lot of volatility along the way maybe allowing some near term buy op's. REXX is competing w RRC, EQT, COG, SWN, the big boys, has to be nimble.. Bea
I don't think the gap gets closed w global bonds out of favor now due to weakness in EU, Asia etc.and higher than usual currency risks now.. and probably wont sell more shares at the discount to NAV. if they can invest the 50m and produce more than the cost of interest on the pfds (very low interest expense) which is likely,,then there is potentially more income to distribute. .. ..if we don't produce capital gains, more of the distributions are taxable as income.. they may? be trying to take advantage of opportunities in the fixed income market. Again I think BW is a good advisor so we should be ok. doing better than TEI overall.. Bea
not sure I show $132m about 24% total leverage before, today they sold 50m mand redeem pfds.. didn't see anything being redeemed so probably total leverage now of 182m and assets of 585m or so,,not crazy leverage as far as some CEF's . not sure how I feel about this although Brandywine is one of the better foreign fixed income mgrs.. Bea
well less capex is one good short term thing.. DVN is excited about it's Permian assets and hopes to explore Wolfcamp more, they are having success at upper layers..another good operator.. so we have at least OXY, DVN, PXD if/when pricing recovers.. it will be a tough volatile year. long term hold for me in my mid 50's I still like the potential in a diversified portfolio of perpetual trusts as part of an energy allocation, CRT, ROYT,NDRO, maybe VOC at some point.. it has been painful like for everyone else. I think there could still be better entry points to come in these issues as production does not seem to be slowing down when I read the presentations from many players.. . Bea
our WY Parkman/Turner acreage is sitting pretty and Devon's 4th q Operations Presentation, on their website now, page 17 of 18, shows big plans to include AET as per AET's Jan presentation on our website. sadly the reports I am reading from most producer's presentations are not revealing much shut in, many well ties ins to come, improved well performance, increasing o/ng/ngl production in N America.. so the pain in pricingg seems to be far from over. no shut in's just shifting, improving, producing full steam ahead, infrastructure coming online .. at least costs seem to be going down and w some stability on pricing, we may be able to sell something non core. Devon's acreage complements all ours in WY obviously but also in TX/Eagle Ford and even OK.. wish they'd just buy us, it would be a blip to them. also PVA's plans in EF which is near ours seem to make them a good candidate to buy our EF stuff. .. oh well.. spec hold for me, we will know more in a few weeks when 4th q is released.. glta. Bea
Lost Tank Field Update
As previously disclosed, in late 2012, Enduro elected to participate in two Permian oil wells drilled by Occidental Petroleum in the Lost Tank field in southeastern New Mexico, in which Enduro owns a 50% working interest. The wells were spud in December 2012; however, due to delays including takeaway capacity for associated gas volumes and completion delays on one well, the wells are not currently producing.
The first well which was completed, the Lost Tank 4 Federal 22, continues to experience delays due to a stuck packer in the well, and at this time, Occidental Petroleum has updated its plans to clean out the well with coil tubing and produce through the packer later in 2015. The second well, the Lost Tank 4 Federal 23, was completed in February 2015 and is currently waiting on state permit approval to begin producing with expectations to be flowing to sales in March 2015.
LOL! dist will be low for a while for sure. capex costs and deductions will be down, glad, don't want them selling our o/ng at these prices. maint/servicing costs should be down as producers are squeezing servicers. so deductions may be lower, too.. I wonder if our Rocker/PXD wells were among the frozen PXD well problem affecting Jan? .. oh well. Permian will be a profitable focus point in shale and world production for years to come and we are in the thick of it. Bea
I am buying a little here, they raised the dist to .1595monthly and seem to be earning it all. no real energy exposure, some EU bank stuff.. as part of a diversified portfolio ... the price may run up to the NAV if and when it liquidates ( again while this is the mandate, they may merge it into something or change the bylaws/extend the term etc. who knows.. these CEF mgrs. won't want to lose assets under mgmt. as I noted..) however, what will that NAV be?? if the NAV at termination is only $15, that would be all you'd get if int rates go way up or if they start to pay out ROC. you understand these CEF very well from what I've read so you are more of an expert than me! I enjoy your valuable posts. I think rates will be low for along time, probably into mid 2020's at least.. Market Anthropology blog has some interesting (if complicated) articles on historical comparisons to 1940-1953ish,, saying possibly similar and 10yr wb in a range for quite a while.. It is so rare to see CEF's raise dist these days.. PGZ did so as well, an interested levered r/e, CMBS fund, maybe too much REIT? gl to you. Mike. Bea
i made a lot of money in NXG when it went from below $1 in the 08-09 crash to almost $4 where I sold it before Gammon (now Aurico) took it over. I never "held" at $14? - I exited years ago but do have a gold/silver watchlist .. Had the CA govt approved the KN project, it would be one of the lowest cost copper and gold mines in the world now in a safe country. Aurico is digging around the permitting issues with the equipment in place from NXG days not costing them anything. AUQ has made mistakes but is still one of the lowest cost producers out there. I am not long, would add under $3 US though. I could see GG or ABX, NEM buying. I am disappointed in you, trade, bashing me as I have usually been in agreement with your posts and the direction and mgmt. issues w NXG in the past. I would much rather have N. Am. producers on my radar than anything in SAm, Africa, Asia or Greece (EGO).. NXG and AUQ are speculative small caps for sure, no argument there. sad. Bea
under Janus mgmt., not sure how much in this fund. from what I can see it is a load fund plus higher than usual bond fund expenses..with interest rates so low it does not appear attractive to me to park money here at this time, pay all these fees, even for Bill Gross. I like some lower levered closed end funds for now..Bea
dist cut from .30/3.60y CA to .15/ 1.80CA, capex cut to bare min.. no hedges hurting for sure, big cash flow hit,,at least they are low debt. sp has further to fall imo probably 10-15$ at least..